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Wolfgang Münchau: Europe enters the age of disintegration – FT
There will not necessarily be a formal break-up of the EU, but it will become less effective
Closer fiscal integration is unavoidable if the Eurozone is to survive – Europp
In the long run, radical reforms at the Eurozone level are needed if the monetary union is to survive, although it is still admissible to allow non-Eurozone countries to follow a weaker form of integration.
The Riksbank is probing The Outer Limits of monetary policy – Shaun Richards
Cutting The Balkan Route Has Stranded 1000s Of Migrants In Greece – ZH
Europe’s refugee surge: Economic and policy implications – vox
Merkel Channels Varoufakis: “No Plan B,” in This Case, on Migrants – Yves Smith
Is This Angela Merkel’s Plan B? – ECFR
How would post-Brexit trade deals actually work? – Europp
Cameron Says Supporters of EU Exit Are Being ‘Extremely Vague’ – BB
London Mayor Says Britain Would Have Bright Future Outside EU – BB
Those Who Love Brussels, Step Forward! – euinside
UK government: Brexit would mean ‘decade of uncertainty' – Politico
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
ECB Unveils Ingenious Strategy to Reduce Banking Stress – Wolf Street
Trying to prop up confidence by hook or crook.
Euro area core inflation fell - additional pressure on ECB – Danske Bank
After €670 Billion In QE, Inflation Plunges To -0.2% – ZH
Fed Doves Still Have The Upper Hand For March – Tim Duy
Inflation concerns are not likely to prompt a the Fed to hike rates in March. Financial market issues will dominate; like it or not, the Fed cannot separate the financial system from the real economy. The former is signaling it requires a looser policy stance to compensate for the stronger dollar. It would be tempting fate to ignore that signal. Be wary, however, of a hawkish message sent through the statement.
The Fed could be back in play in 2016 – Sober Look
US Labour Market Monitor – Danske Bank
Slower jobs growth but not a disaster
Global Slowdown Concerns Policy Makers as Fed, ECB Ponder Rates – BB
Brainard says Fed policy path may be lower than anticipated * Praet says weakening indicators are warning sign for ECB
Global imbalance risk and exchange rates – vox
The world’s savings and investments are imbalanced. While some countries persistently borrow over time, others act like bankers to the world – lending year in and year out. This column argues that these imbalances matter for asset pricing in financial markets, and are key to understanding excess returns in currency markets.
A World Deep in Debt… - David Merkel
Steen Jakobsen’s Stress Indicators – TF
New banking and refugee crises may loom * Risk is on relative to the mid February scare but post G20 we remain very alert to March risks.
Mervyn King: the eurozone is doomed – The Telegraph
King: Why throwing money at financial panic leads into a new crisis – The Telegraph
King: 'Forgive them their debts’ is not the answer – The Telegraph
King: Bankers have not learnt the lessons of the Great Crash – The Telegraph
Warren Buffet’s annual letter – Berkshire Hathaway
3 Takeaways From Warren Buffett’s 2015 Annual Letter – WSJ
Value Is the Word From Buffett – View / BB
Warren Buffett's Shareholder Letter, Annotated – BB
G-20 Reaffirms No-Devaluation Pledge, to Consult on Currencies – BB
G-20 Seeks Infrastructure Push to Help Boost Global Economy – BB
G20 to say world needs to look beyond ultra-easy policy for growth – Reuters
Japan, Not China, Emerges as Currency Worry at G-20 Meeting – BB
G-20 Wants Governments Doing More, and Central Banks Less – BB
G20 appears set to warn on perils of Brexit – FT
Lagarde Calls for Bold, Broad and Accelerated Policy Actions – IMF
"Tepid, Uninspiring" G20 Proves Investor Hopes Were "Pure Fantasy" – ZH
After G20 stalemate, focus turns to signs of growth momentum – Reuters
El-Erian: The G-20 Misses Its Sputnik Moment – View / BB
G20 Hopes for a Cure – Robert Kahn
Danske Daily – Danske Bank
Euro rates update – Nordea
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Firmer dollar, Brent at USD 35.5 but Shanghai down another 4% * Euro-area inflation and Nordic GDP numbers today * Intra-Euro-area spreads likely to narrow ahead of ECB * USD helped by rise in risk appetite
Morning Markets – TF
It's shaping up to be a rocky start to a busy week with Chinese shares mired in the red (though off intraday lows) a lower yuan fix set by the Peoples Bank of China and continued Brexit fears still weighing on sterling.
Daily FX Comment – Marc Chandler
Dollar Mixed, While Equities Skid
Daily Shot – TF
Prices in the US are accelerating - at least a bit and in particular four housing and healthcare. A rate hike later this year is still thinkable. Not so in the Eurozone where inflation expectations are at record lows. In major other economies rate cuts are seen likely.
Matt Levine’s Money Stuff – View / BB
Benign Ownership, Buffett’s Letter and Opaque ETFs
Daily Press Summary – Open Europe
David Cameron: A vote to leave the EU is the “gamble of the century” * Belgian PM: After Brexit, UK “can’t have all the advantages of access to the single market and assume none of the consequences” * ORB poll finds lead for Leave but withdrawal viewed as riskier option * Industry, from airlines to fund managers, divided over Brexit impact * Boris Johnson or Michael Gove expected to represent Leave campaign in key BBC Brexit debate * There is no ‘Plan B’ for migrant crisis, says defiant Merkel * Former Bank of England Governor warns Eurozone must break up if some members are ever to prosper again * UK Government stats show £886m welfare bill for unemployed EU migrants in 2013-14 * Nobel Prize winner warns of Brexit risks to UK science * New Democracy leader appeals for alliance of reformers in Greece * US agrees to clear limits on use of European citizens’ data as part of new pact with EU
Brussels Playbook – Politico
Iran election — Irish nail-biter — Merkel on migration
US Open – ZH
China's Panicked RRR Cut Leads To Feeble Stock Rebound; Gold Resumes Climb
Frontrunning – ZH
FX Update – TF
The G20 brought a supportive statement to global markets but the market was a bit ahead of itself with expectations for more. Meanwhile the focus swings to this week’s key US data and whether the markets continue to underestimate the US economy.
From the Floor – TF
The G20 meeting is now behind us leaving all manner of carefully parsed words but little in terms of specific initiatives. This has left markets in a state of familiar indecisiveness but do the latest US data signal a return to the rate hike story?
FINLAND & FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Ei apua öljyn hinnan rauhoittumisesta * USA:n Q4:n BKT-lukuja korjattiin ylöspäin * Ruotsin talous kasvaa vahvasti * USA:n työmarkkinat vahvistuvat edelleen
Suomen maaraportti 2016 – Euroopan Komissio
”johon sisältyy perusteellinen tarkastelu makrotalouden epätasapainojen ehkäisemisestä ja korjaamisesta”
Jan Hurri: Euroalueen suurin velkapommi kytee Italiassa – TalSa
Eurokriisi on tyvenessä mutta ei ohi. Seuraava velkapommi kytee jo, ja se on entistä vaarallisempi. Se kytee yhdessä alueen suurimmista maista, Italiassa. Saksa haluaa purkaa pommin tavalla, joka voi räjäyttää sen.
Työpaikkasopiminen — mikä tie eteenpäin? – Juhana Vartiainen
Sami Metelinen: Talouden käänne edellyttää investointien kasvua – Verkkouutiset
Todellinen kasvu lähtee Suomessa liikkeelle vasta, kun investoinnit lähtevät kasvuun ja leikkaaminen loppuu.