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Monday, February 29

29th Feb - G20, migrants, Brexit etc

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Wolfgang Münchau: Europe enters the age of disintegrationFT
There will not necessarily be a formal break-up of the EU, but it will become less effective

Closer fiscal integration is unavoidable if the Eurozone is to surviveEuropp
In the long run, radical reforms at the Eurozone level are needed if the monetary union is to survive, although it is still admissible to allow non-Eurozone countries to follow a weaker form of integration.

The Riksbank is probing The Outer Limits of monetary policyShaun Richards

Cutting The Balkan Route Has Stranded 1000s Of Migrants In Greece – ZH
Europe’s refugee surge: Economic and policy implications – vox
Merkel Channels Varoufakis: “No Plan B,” in This Case, on Migrants – Yves Smith
Is This Angela Merkel’s Plan B? – ECFR

How would post-Brexit trade deals actually work? – Europp
Cameron Says Supporters of EU Exit Are Being ‘Extremely Vague’ – BB
London Mayor Says Britain Would Have Bright Future Outside EU – BB
Those Who Love Brussels, Step Forward! – euinside
UK government: Brexit would mean ‘decade of uncertainty' – Politico

ECB Unveils Ingenious Strategy to Reduce Banking StressWolf Street
Trying to prop up confidence by hook or crook.

Euro area core inflation fell - additional pressure on ECB – Danske Bank
After €670 Billion In QE, Inflation Plunges To -0.2% – ZH

Fed Doves Still Have The Upper Hand For March Tim Duy
Inflation concerns are not likely to prompt a the Fed to hike rates in March. Financial market issues will dominate; like it or not, the Fed cannot separate the financial system from the real economy. The former is signaling it requires a looser policy stance to compensate for the stronger dollar. It would be tempting fate to ignore that signal. Be wary, however, of a hawkish message sent through the statement.

The Fed could be back in play in 2016Sober Look

US Labour Market MonitorDanske Bank
Slower jobs growth but not a disaster

Global Slowdown Concerns Policy Makers as Fed, ECB Ponder Rates BB
Brainard says Fed policy path may be lower than anticipated * Praet says weakening indicators are warning sign for ECB

Global imbalance risk and exchange ratesvox
The world’s savings and investments are imbalanced. While some countries persistently borrow over time, others act like bankers to the world – lending year in and year out. This column argues that these imbalances matter for asset pricing in financial markets, and are key to understanding excess returns in currency markets.

A World Deep in Debt… - David Merkel

Steen Jakobsen’s Stress IndicatorsTF
New banking and refugee crises may loom * Risk is on relative to the mid February scare but post G20 we remain very alert to March risks.

Mervyn King: the eurozone is doomed – The Telegraph
King: Why throwing money at financial panic leads into a new crisis – The Telegraph
King: 'Forgive them their debts’ is not the answer – The Telegraph
King: Bankers have not learnt the lessons of the Great Crash – The Telegraph

Warren Buffet’s annual letter – Berkshire Hathaway
3 Takeaways From Warren Buffett’s 2015 Annual Letter – WSJ
Value Is the Word From Buffett – View / BB
Warren Buffett's Shareholder Letter, Annotated – BB

G-20 Reaffirms No-Devaluation Pledge, to Consult on Currencies – BB
G-20 Seeks Infrastructure Push to Help Boost Global Economy – BB
G20 to say world needs to look beyond ultra-easy policy for growth – Reuters
Japan, Not China, Emerges as Currency Worry at G-20 Meeting – BB
G-20 Wants Governments Doing More, and Central Banks Less – BB
G20 appears set to warn on perils of Brexit – FT
Lagarde Calls for Bold, Broad and Accelerated Policy Actions – IMF
"Tepid, Uninspiring" G20 Proves Investor Hopes Were "Pure Fantasy" – ZH
After G20 stalemate, focus turns to signs of growth momentum – Reuters
El-Erian: The G-20 Misses Its Sputnik Moment – View / BB
G20 Hopes for a Cure – Robert Kahn

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Firmer dollar, Brent at USD 35.5 but Shanghai down another 4% * Euro-area inflation and Nordic GDP numbers today * Intra-Euro-area spreads likely to narrow ahead of ECB * USD helped by rise in risk appetite

Morning MarketsTF
It's shaping up to be a rocky start to a busy week with Chinese shares mired in the red (though off intraday lows) a lower yuan fix set by the Peoples Bank of China and continued Brexit fears still weighing on sterling.

Daily FX Comment Marc Chandler
Dollar Mixed, While Equities Skid

Daily ShotTF
Prices in the US are accelerating - at least a bit and in particular four housing and healthcare. A rate hike later this year is still thinkable. Not so in the Eurozone where inflation expectations are at record lows. In major other economies rate cuts are seen likely.

Matt Levine’s Money StuffView / BB
Benign Ownership, Buffett’s Letter and Opaque ETFs

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
David Cameron: A vote to leave the EU is the “gamble of the century” * Belgian PM: After Brexit, UK “can’t have all the advantages of access to the single market and assume none of the consequences” * ORB poll finds lead for Leave but withdrawal viewed as riskier option * Industry, from airlines to fund managers, divided over Brexit impact * Boris Johnson or Michael Gove expected to represent Leave campaign in key BBC Brexit debate * There is no ‘Plan B’ for migrant crisis, says defiant Merkel * Former Bank of England Governor warns Eurozone must break up if some members are ever to prosper again * UK Government stats show £886m welfare bill for unemployed EU migrants in 2013-14 * Nobel Prize winner warns of Brexit risks to UK science * New Democracy leader appeals for alliance of reformers in Greece * US agrees to clear limits on use of European citizens’ data as part of new pact with EU

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Iran election — Irish nail-biter — Merkel on migration

China's Panicked RRR Cut Leads To Feeble Stock Rebound; Gold Resumes Climb


FX UpdateTF
The G20 brought a supportive statement to global markets but the market was a bit ahead of itself with expectations for more. Meanwhile the focus swings to this week’s key US data and whether the markets continue to underestimate the US economy.

From the FloorTF
The G20 meeting is now behind us leaving all manner of carefully parsed words but little in terms of specific initiatives. This has left markets in a state of familiar indecisiveness but do the latest US data signal a return to the rate hike story?

Ei apua öljyn hinnan rauhoittumisesta * USA:n Q4:n BKT-lukuja korjattiin ylöspäin * Ruotsin talous kasvaa vahvasti * USA:n työmarkkinat vahvistuvat edelleen

Suomen maaraportti 2016Euroopan Komissio
”johon sisältyy perusteellinen tarkastelu makrotalouden epätasapainojen ehkäisemisestä ja korjaamisesta”

Jan Hurri: Euroalueen suurin velkapommi kytee ItaliassaTalSa
Eurokriisi on tyvenessä mutta ei ohi. Seuraava velkapommi kytee jo, ja se on entistä vaarallisempi. Se kytee yhdessä alueen suurimmista maista, Italiassa. Saksa haluaa purkaa pommin tavalla, joka voi räjäyttää sen.

Työpaikkasopiminen — mikä tie eteenpäin?Juhana Vartiainen

Sami Metelinen: Talouden käänne edellyttää investointien kasvuaVerkkouutiset
Todellinen kasvu lähtee Suomessa liikkeelle vasta, kun investoinnit lähtevät kasvuun ja leikkaaminen loppuu.