MoreLiver's Daily: October 2013

Thursday, October 31

31st Oct - Terrible EZ inflation, unemployment

Now the US Treasury is telling Europe that Germany has been wrong. The numbers today from Europe confirm the view.

29th Oct - Waiting for the Fed

28th Oct - Monday's light links

26th Oct - Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

Best article links selected from the ending week’s posts. Last week’s edition here.

24th Oct - Draghi plays hard on banks

23rd Oct - European Banks Stressed

22nd Oct - Tapering pushed to Spring 2014

Some nasty articles on Europe today. Note that the Bundesbank is hawkish, but that is not news. Today's main event will be the delayed US September employment report.

The median analyst expectation is for payrolls to have risen by 180k after the 169k advance in August and 104k in July. The market reaction would likely be stronger to a downside surprise. – Nordea

21st Oct - The post-shutdown data calendar

German political news, ECB, asset quality review, delayed US data, PMI, IFO, next negotiations in US...

20th Oct - Credit Guest: The return of the Gibson paradox

Here is this week's I/O from Macronomics - your first line of defense against market ignorance.

19th Oct - Weekender: Linkfest

18th Oct - Weekender: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

Best article links selected from the ending week’s posts. Last week’s edition here.

17th Oct - Dollar offered as tapering is delayed

US: Debt deal done – or the need for one moved to February. Nice that the thing was solved for now, but not nice that the circus will be coming back to town so soon after the last show. Because it will be just the same in February. There are four Fed presidents speaking today, so the taper-guessing is back in vogue. January seen the earliest, but if the political mess continues and is not solved by that time, it might be that the Fed will simply decide to postpone the tapering again.

Dagong downgrades US from A to A-, says “A debt crisis evolves into a political crisis, which in turn exacerbates the debt crisis…Recurrence of the conflict over debt ceiling once again reveals the US superstructure’s incapacity to solve national debt crisis”

Bloomberg: The focus now shifts to a new series of deadlines -- the first for budget negotiations with a Dec. 13 target -- that set up more rounds of political combat over taxes and spending on programs including Social Security and Medicare. The deal funds the government at Republican-backed spending levels through Jan. 15, 2014, and suspends the debt limit through Feb. 7.

Europe: ECB’s meeting will discuss the asset quality review and the stress tests. We were promised a schedule and more information “in second half of October”, so perhaps we will hear something soon.

16th Oct - Deal in US?

There is much about the US fiscal melodrama that is a farce. Unlike other debt crisis, this one is totally self-inflicted. It is a crisis of choice not necessity. The misconstructions have been repeated so many times that they have taken on a life of their own. October 17 most certainly does not represent the deadline on a US default. – Marc to Market

15th Oct - Still no deal, Europe darkens

It now looks as if there will be a bi-partisan deal later today in the US Senate,

14th Oct - Another Shutdown Monday

Starting from today, I am posting only once per day. I will also skip the “regular” link section, but luckily you can access them from my Links-page.

I want to have more time to read what I link to – and write as well.

13th Oct - Credit Guest: The Rebel Yell

This week's cross-post by Macronomics, enjoy.

Some random charts for the Sunday - joitain käppyröitä iloksenne.

12th Oct - Off-Topic & Finnish

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

Best article links selected from the ending week’s posts.

11th Oct - US Open

10th Oct - US Close: A Shutdown-Pause?

9th Oct - US Close: Still playing chicken

Fed minutes contained no surprises - except that the FOMC really, really wants to taper - but is too scared of the feedback. More on Yellen, and some good ones on Europe. Of course, the U.S. shutdown continues, but no proper news yet.

It only takes a minute, girl!

8th Oct - US Close

IMF's WEO was discussed in the previous post. Today, again, the US shutdown and debt ceiling are on the agenda. But some very nice ones on Europe as well...