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Sunday, October 27

27th Oct - Markets, Economics, Finnish



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MARKETS
Blatant Housing-Bubble: Stating the Obvious – ZH

4 Out Of 5 Valuation Methodologies Agree: The "Market" Is Overvalued – ZH

Quant finance blogs – Portfolio Probe

Money 101: top resources for finance majors – OFD

Minimum Variance Portfolios: Theory and Empirics at Odds – Turnkey Analyst

Some Charts – Global Macro Trading

Seven Nonfinancial Books That Made Me a Better Financial Professional – CFA Institute

Interview: Warren Buffett, Alan Greenspan – Charlie Rose

The Infographic That Ate Wall Street – The Reformed Broker

Interview: Gary Gensler explains how financial reform is going – WaPo

How stressed are banks in the interbank market? – BuBa
Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Papers by Puriya Abbassi, Falko Fecht, Patrick Weber

To Young Analysts – The Aleph Blog


ECONOMICS
  MONETARY POLICY
A natural long-term rate – The Economist

In defence of forward guidance – mainly macro

How to tell if you understand monetary economics – Money Illusion

Forward Guidance: A new Vox eBook – voxeu.org
Forward guidance is the practice of communicating the future path of monetary policy instruments. This column introduces a new eBook on the subject that collects the views of central bankers from the 7Fed, ECB, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England together with those of scholars and market participants. Forward guidance could be the key to unwinding massive central-bank balance sheets without severe disruptions.

It’s better to “not target” NGDP (level targeting) than to “not target” inflation – Money Illusion

  QUANTITATIVE EASING
The downsides of quantitative easing, Cardiff Garcia smackdown watch – FT
What Are the Costs to Extending QE Anyway?: A Challenge to Cardiff Garcia – DeLong
Academic Studies Show QE Doesn’t Work – The Big Picture
The effects of QE – The Current Moment

  FISCAL POLICY
Ken Rogoff Loses It, Calls Criticism of Errors in Debt Paper a “Witch Hunt” – naked capitalism

The Cost of Crisis-Driven Fiscal Policy – PGPF
Prepared by Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC for the Peter G. Peterson Foundation

  IS ECONOMICS A SCIENCE?
Yes, Economics Is a Science – NYT

Maybe Economics Is A Science, But Many Economists Are Not Scientists – Krugman / NYT

18 signs you’re reading bad criticism of economics – ChrisAuld.com

18 Signs Economists Haven’t the Foggiest – Unlearning Economics

Economics as science – Stumbling and Mumbling

  DO CURRENCY REGIMES MATTER?
Surprising Similarities: Recent Monetary Regimes of Small Economies – Berkeley
Macroeconomic and financial consequences of regime choice are surprisingly small.

Evidence on the (limited) power of exchange rates – Antonio Fatas
I do not think the result is banal, as he argues, it is an important result that is necessary to check the validity of our priors and the theoretical predictions of our models. But I agree with him that some would consider the result implausible and would, unfortunately, continue with their current beliefs that exchange rate regime decisions have strong consequences on growth and volatility.

Do Currency Regimes Matter? – Krugman / NYT
Nominal wage stickiness. Debt levels matter much less for countries with their own currency.

A note on exchange rate regimes and macro outcomes – The Money Illusion
This surprised me a little, until I found out that the study excluded the eurozone.  Then it didn’t surprise me at all.

Fiscal Multipliers: Liquidity Traps and Currency Unions – Economist’s View

  GREENSPAN & HOUSING
Change in Home Prices – FED
Interactive graphics

Why Was the Housing-Price Collapse So Painful? (And Why Is It Still?) – Macroblog

Alan Greenspan: What Went Wrong – WSJ
The former Fed chairman on where the economy went wrong, where he went wrong—and Ayn Rand.

Alan Greenspan still thinks he’s right – WaPo

Reviewing the “Too Low For Too Long” Evidence – Economics One

The Greenspan FED and the Housing Bubble – Two Critiques – EconoSpeak

The Worst Ex-Central Banker in the World – Krugman / NYT

Never Saw It Coming – Alan Greenspan / Foreign Affairs
Why the Financial Crisis Took Economists By Surprise

An interview with Alan Greenspan – Gillian Tett / FT
Six years on from the start of the credit crisis, the former US Federal Reserve chairman is prepared to admit that he got it wrong – at least in part

  NOBEL-PRIZE
Why This Year's Nobel Award In Economics Makes Perfect Sense – Capital Spectator

The Inefficient Market Hypothesis – NYT

Fama, Hansen, and Shiller: Excellent Nobel choices – voxeu.org

The Man Who Won a Nobel Prize for Helping Create a Global Financial Crisis – naked capitalism

Shiller, Fama and all that... – Physics of Finance

The Nobel Laureates on equity bubbles – Gavyn Davies / FT

Hey, Wall Street: If You Want Efficiency, Buy a Blender – BB

Economists Should Get Out of the Science Lab – BB

How Shiller helped Fama win the Nobel – The Big Picture



Eugene Fama, King of Predictable Markets – NYT

FINNISH
Näin pankkiunioni höynäyttää meitä kohti liittovaltiota – Jan Hurri / TalSa
Pankkiunioni on välttämätön lisä rahaliittoon, jotta velkakriisi ei toistu. Näin vakuuttavat europäättäjät. Heidän perustelunsa ovat kuitenkin keskeisiltä osin kyseenalaisia. Pankkiunionin sivuvaikutukset voivat jopa kärjistää velkakriisiä lisää – ja näin "yllättäen" pakottaa euromaat ottamaan lisää askelia kohti yhteisvastuuta ja liittovaltiota.

"Meillä on dramaattinen talouskasvun hidastuminen edessä" – Verkkouutiset
Aalto-yliopiston professorin Matti Pohjolan mielestä Suomessa ei tarvitsisi tehdä säästötoimia, jos talouskasvua saataisiin nopeutettua.

Osakeasuntojen hinnat laskivat hieman syyskuussa – Tilastokeskus
Näissä postinumeroissa asuntojen hinnat laskivat eniten – TalSa
Vanhojen asuntojen hinnat putosivat alkusyksystä pahimmillaan lähes kolmanneksen

"Vahva euro syö jo Suomen talouskasvua" – TalSa
Euron vahvistuminen uhkaa jo ensi vuoden talouskasvua Suomessa, arvelee OP-Pohjolan pääekonomisti Reijo Heiskanen. Euroopan keskuspankilta odotetaankin toimia, hän sanoo.

Lamasta on noustava – korostaa “Nallekin” – Raimo Ilaskivi / IL

Eurokriisin anatomiaa: Portugali – Markus Leikola / IL

Tulopoliittinen sopimus
Pitkään teossa ollut tupo saatiin viimein sovittua – HS
VATT:n Vartiainen jatkaisi palkkamalttia useamman vuoden – YLE
Hallitus kiittää työmarkkinasopua - luvatut tukitoimet astuvat voimaan – YLE
Näkökulma: Tupossa tärkeintä oli sopu – HS
70-luvulla tupo-korotus oli yli 10 prosenttia, nyt 20 euroa – HS

"Ruotsi on euromaa alle kymmenessä vuodessa" – Verkkouutiset
Ruotsin kansanpuolueen puheenjohtaja Jan Björklund on vakuuttunut siitä, että kansalaismielipide maan jäsenyyttä kohtaan valuuttaunionissa kääntyy ja Ruotsi on alle kymmenessä vuodessa euroalueen jäsen.

Aiheesta lisää:
Liberal People's Party (Sweden) – wiki
Jan Björklund – wiki
Sweden and the euro – wiki
Fortsatt svagt stöd för euron – SCB
Om det hade varit en folkomröstning om euron i maj 2013 skulle 81 procent rösta nej och 11 procent skulle rösta ja.