EUROPE
The EU may have a
democratic deficit, but national governments are facing an even greater
legitimacy crisis – Europp
/ LSE
Espionage: ‘How the
Russians spied on the G20’ – Presseurop
Participants of the G20 meeting held on September 5 in St Petersburg
received a “poisoned gift”, reports La Stampa: a set of USB drives which hid
spying devices designed to collect data from computers and smartphones.
SocGen: We see the 2013 real GDP in negative territory at -1.0%, with
more amendments to government expenditure items expected. As the Bank of Spain
pinpointed in its latest economic report, government consumption and
specifically employee compensation is yet to be adjusted. We thus expect the
impact on GDP to kick in early 2014 and bring Spain back to recession.
The European
Council’s Latest Three Takeaways – PIIE
Intelligence Issues Matter Politically, Another Incremental ‘Grand
Bargain’ in the Making?, The ECB Has Lost the Debate About Bank Creditor
Bail-Ins
Euro area Viewpoint:
The strong euro matters – Nordea
Since the summer of last year, the euro has gained some 10% in value
against the USD, and around 8% in nominal and also real trade weighted terms.
This is clearly reflected in foreign trade data.
The euro is soaring.
That’s terrible news for Europe. – WaPo
Last week, excess liquidity fell below the EUR 200bn level for the first
time since 2011. This is around the levels below which the volatility in the
overnight rate used to increase and EONIA could start climbing towards the refi
rate. With year-end coming up, the LTROs approaching one year to maturity, and
the Asset Quality Review and stress test in focus ahead of next year, we could
see continued large repayments and front-end EONIAs moving higher.
ECB’s Nowotny: no
realistic prospect of rate cut, have to live with strong euro – ZH
MACRO NUMBERS
Italy’s Slump Persists in Setback for Letta Government – BB
U.K. Mortgage Approvals Rise to Highest in 5 1/2 Years – BB
The 4 charts that explain bank lending – FT
UNITED STATES
S.A.C. To Plead
Guilty To Securities Fraud, Stop Managing Outside Money – ZH
Q3 Earnings: Bleh – PragCap
FEDERAL RESERVE
Tapering is on hold,
not off – FOMC preview – Nordea
What to Watch for
From the Fed – WSJ
FOMC Preview: Flying
Blind
– Calculated
Risk
MACRO NUMBERS
Retail Sales declined 0.1% in September – Calculated
Risk
September Retail Sales Come In Line With Expectations – ZH
Retail Sales in U.S. Climb Excluding Auto Dealers – BB
Retail Sales Disappoint, But Core Sales Were Fine – dshort
Wholesale Prices in U.S. Unexpectedly Fall as Food Costs Ebb – BB
U.S. consumer spending gauge rises in September, wholesale inflation
muted – Reuters
U.S. home prices rise in Aug, yearly gain best since 2006: S&P – Reuters
Citi's Economic
Surprise Index Falling All Month, Going Negative – BI
ASIA
BOJ Beat: Your Guide
to This Week’s Outlook Report – WSJ
OTHER
Global FX Strategy:
No more EURUSD upside – Nordea
In the short term, we expect the USD to gain ground. The market
expectations of tapering have been postponed to March – and even later – which
can be changed by a few better macro figures from the US. (Our economists still
call for a January taper.) The weaker payrolls in September may still be
revised as they used to in previous years. Various short-term indicator models
suggest that the EURUSD has overshot.
FINNISH
Navigaattori 29.10.2013 – Nordea
Yksityinen
velkataakka ja pankkitestit hidastavat Euroopan kasvua * Ruotsin kruunu
vahvistuu, mutta maltillisemmin * Nytkö lyhyet korot lähtivät? * Kasvava USA:n
tuotanto painanut öljyn hintaa * Metsäyritykset ja Neste Oil tuloskauden
yllättäjiä * Mitä Fedin elvytyksen jatkuminen merkitsee eurolle? * Paineet
EKP:lle kasvavat * Kansainvälistä hajautusta sijoitusobligaatiolla
Rahoitusmarkkinaraportti 2/2013 – Suomen
Pankki
Suomalaiset
yritykset laskeneet liikkeeseen poikkeuksellisen paljon joukkolainoja * Asuntoyhteisöjen
lainakanta yli kolmenkertaistunut kymmenessä vuodessa * Euroalueen pankkien
hoitamattomat luotot kovassa kasvussa * Monet euromaat rajoittavat suuria
käteismaksuja