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Tuesday, October 29

29th Oct - Waiting for the Fed

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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The EU may have a democratic deficit, but national governments are facing an even greater legitimacy crisisEuropp / LSE

Espionage: ‘How the Russians spied on the G20’Presseurop
Participants of the G20 meeting held on September 5 in St Petersburg received a “poisoned gift”, reports La Stampa: a set of USB drives which hid spying devices designed to collect data from computers and smartphones.

Spot The Spanish Reality ZH
SocGen: We see the 2013 real GDP in negative territory at -1.0%, with more amendments to government expenditure items expected. As the Bank of Spain pinpointed in its latest economic report, government consumption and specifically employee compensation is yet to be adjusted. We thus expect the impact on GDP to kick in early 2014 and bring Spain back to recession.

The European Council’s Latest Three TakeawaysPIIE
Intelligence Issues Matter Politically, Another Incremental ‘Grand Bargain’ in the Making?, The ECB Has Lost the Debate About Bank Creditor Bail-Ins

Euro area Viewpoint: The strong euro mattersNordea
Since the summer of last year, the euro has gained some 10% in value against the USD, and around 8% in nominal and also real trade weighted terms. This is clearly reflected in foreign trade data.

The euro is soaring. That’s terrible news for Europe.WaPo

FI Viewpoint – LTRO updateNordea
Last week, excess liquidity fell below the EUR 200bn level for the first time since 2011. This is around the levels below which the volatility in the overnight rate used to increase and EONIA could start climbing towards the refi rate. With year-end coming up, the LTROs approaching one year to maturity, and the Asset Quality Review and stress test in focus ahead of next year, we could see continued large repayments and front-end EONIAs moving higher.

ECB’s Nowotny: no realistic prospect of rate cut, have to live with strong euroZH
Italy’s Slump Persists in Setback for Letta Government – BB
U.K. Mortgage Approvals Rise to Highest in 5 1/2 Years – BB
The 4 charts that explain bank lending – FT

S.A.C. To Plead Guilty To Securities Fraud, Stop Managing Outside MoneyZH

Q3 Earnings: BlehPragCap

Tapering is on hold, not off – FOMC previewNordea

What to Watch for From the FedWSJ

FOMC Preview: Flying BlindCalculated Risk

Retail Sales declined 0.1% in September – Calculated Risk
September Retail Sales Come In Line With Expectations – ZH
Retail Sales in U.S. Climb Excluding Auto Dealers – BB
Retail Sales Disappoint, But Core Sales Were Fine – dshort
Wholesale Prices in U.S. Unexpectedly Fall as Food Costs Ebb – BB
U.S. consumer spending gauge rises in September, wholesale inflation muted – Reuters
Housing Prices in U.S. Cities Rise by Most Since Early 2006 – BB
U.S. home prices rise in Aug, yearly gain best since 2006: S&P – Reuters

Citi's Economic Surprise Index Falling All Month, Going NegativeBI

BOJ Beat: Your Guide to This Week’s Outlook ReportWSJ

Global FX Strategy: No more EURUSD upsideNordea
In the short term, we expect the USD to gain ground. The market expectations of tapering have been postponed to March – and even later – which can be changed by a few better macro figures from the US. (Our economists still call for a January taper.) The weaker payrolls in September may still be revised as they used to in previous years. Various short-term indicator models suggest that the EURUSD has overshot.

Navigaattori 29.10.2013Nordea
Yksityinen velkataakka ja pankkitestit hidastavat Euroopan kasvua * Ruotsin kruunu vahvistuu, mutta maltillisemmin * Nytkö lyhyet korot lähtivät? * Kasvava USA:n tuotanto painanut öljyn hintaa * Metsäyritykset ja Neste Oil tuloskauden yllättäjiä * Mitä Fedin elvytyksen jatkuminen merkitsee eurolle? * Paineet EKP:lle kasvavat * Kansainvälistä hajautusta sijoitusobligaatiolla
Rahoitusmarkkinaraportti 2/2013Suomen Pankki
Suomalaiset yritykset laskeneet liikkeeseen poikkeuksellisen paljon joukkolainoja * Asuntoyhteisöjen lainakanta yli kolmenkertaistunut kymmenessä vuodessa * Euroalueen pankkien hoitamattomat luotot kovassa kasvussa * Monet euromaat rajoittavat suuria käteismaksuja