Google Analytics

Thursday, October 10

10th Oct - EU Open

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter or Facebook

News roundup – Between The Hedges
The 6am Cut London – alphaville / FT
Emerging Markets Headlines – beyondbrics / FT
Asia Morning MoneyBeat: The Yellen Reprieve – WSJ
Europe Morning MoneyBeat: Stocks Hope For D.C. Progress. Again WSJ

3 Numbers to Watch: French production, US consumer & chain storesTradingFloor
Industrial production in France and two US releases—the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index and the monthly ICSC chain store sales report—are key numbers to watch today.

Market Preview: US budget talks and ECB monthly report in focusTradingFloor
European markets are likely to open higher Thursday amid signs of progress in US budget talks and after Janet Yellen was officially nominated for the Fed chief race by Barack Obama. Traders will eye some macro data in the US and Europe later today.

Danske DailyDanske Bank (pdf)
President Barack Obama has scheduled meetings with House Republicans in a first sign of easing the
logjam. Republicans are opening up to a short-term lift in the debt ceiling...Changes to Obamacare
were no longer mentioned. US Treasury secretary Jacob Lew will testify at 14:30 CET before the Senate Finance Committee about the debt ceiling...With the world’s central bankers gathered in the US for the IMF and World Bank annual meeting, we also have a flood of speeches in the calendar today. Among others ECB president Mario Draghi and Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda are scheduled to speak.

Market comment: Yes we can (lift the debt ceiling)Nordea
Long US yields rise and the curve steepens – these moves likely to continue today * Equities show signs of a recovery * An increase in the debt ceiling a step closer * The Fed’s decision not to taper in September a close call * Investors endorse all the progress made in Spain * Italy launches a new 7-year bond with good demand * Bank of England, jobless claims and Lew’s testimony

Fed jatkaa täysillä ensi vuoteen * Sijoittajat hurraavat Espanjan uudistuksille * Englannin keskuspankilta ei odoteta muutoksia rahapolitiikkaan

Aamukatsaus – Tapiola (pdf)

Mario Draghi: Europe’s pursuit of ‘a more perfect UnionECB
Lecture by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, at Harvard Kennedy School, Cambridge (USA), 9 October 2013

In a Hurry: Merkel Wants Coalition Partner in Two WeeksSpiegel
By the time the new parliament holds its first meeting on Oct. 22, Chancellor Merkel wants to know which opposition party she'll be governing with. But it could take much longer to complete the actual coalition talks.

IMF Sees Greece Missing 2014 Bailout Budget TargetWSJ

US Treasury Default Risk Hits 2011 HighsZH

Sneaky Solution To The Debt CeilingBI

First signs of federal government mess impacting consumer spendingSober Look

Obama, Congress search for way out of fiscal stalemateReuters

FOMC Minutes Overtaken by EventsTim Duy’s Fed Watch
The opportunity for even a small taper slipped through the hawks' talons.  They should not be so unnerved.  They pulled off a piece of flesh as they flew past their prey, triggering a substantial monetary tightening as the term premium jumped in response the tapering talk.  Still doves are again ascendant for the moment.  Not only does the budget/debt showdown put any tapering on indefinite hold, once again the Fed may be called upon to boost the pace of asset purchases should financial markets crack.

Macro Digest: FOMC minutes show hunger for taperTradingFloor
September's surprise decision not to taper makes a lot of sense now that the US government is in shutdown. But the FOMC minutes suggest that the Fed will proceed with tapering—just probably not in 2013.

Kind of a Clown ShowTim Duy’s Fed Watch
Monetary policymakers are viewing financial stability as an important element of sustaining maximum employment and stable prices over the course of a business cycle.  The challenge is that this involves a new trade-off in the monetary policy process that they are struggling to understand.  Unfortunately, the public debate they are carrying on is somewhat clownish in that it is sending conflicting signals about the path of monetary policy.  This is really not surprising.  What exactly is the Fed's reaction function if we throw financial stability into the mix?  They don't know any better than we do.

Top IMF Officials Happy With Yellen Pick – WSJ
Yellen Can Do It All, Unfortunately She Has To – WSJ
How Janet Yellen should embrace the Fed’s dissenters – Felix Salmon / Reuters
Yellen pick buys EMs more breathing space – beyondbrics / FT
Yellen as Americans’ Favorite Shows Fed Is Captured by Democracy – BB

IMF Official Doubts Japan Can Meet Inflation Target in Two YearsWSJ

Valtion tarkoitushan on... verottaaHenri Myllyniemi