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Tuesday, October 8

8th Oct - IMF's World Economic Outlook

Global Growth Patterns Shifting, Says IMF WEO IMF
IMF projects global growth at 2.9 percent in 2013, rising to 3.6 percent in 2014 * Growth to be driven more by advanced economies; emerging markets weaker than expected * Risks to forecast remain on the downside

World Economic Outlook (WEO) IMF
Global growth is in low gear, and the drivers of activity are changing. These dynamics raise new policy challenges. Advanced economies are growing again but must continue financial sector repair, pursue fiscal consolidation, and spur job growth. Emerging market economies face the dual challenges of slowing growth and tighter global financial conditions. This issue of the World Economic Outlook examines the potential spillovers from these transitions and the appropriate policy responses. Chapter 3 explores how output comovements are influenced by policy and financial shocks, growth surprises, and other linkages. Chapter 4 assesses why certain emerging market economies were able to avoid the classical boom-and-bust cycle in the face of volatile capital flows during the global financial crisis.

Global Financial Stability Report: Transition Challenges to Stability  IMF

The report examines current risks facing the global financial system as it undergoes a series of transitions along the path toward greater financial stability. The United States may soon move to less accommodative monetary policies and higher long-term interest rates as its recovery gains ground. Emerging markets face a transition to more volatile external conditions and higher risk premiums. Japan is moving toward the new “Abenomics” policy regime, and the euro area is moving toward a more robust and safer financial sector. Finally, the global banking system is phasing in stronger regulatory standards.

Advanced Economies Strengthening, Emerging Market Economies WeakeningiMFdirect
Olivier Blanchard: Advanced economies are slowly strengthening, more or less as forecast.   At the same time, emerging market economies have slowed down, more so than we had forecast in July.

Podcast: Global Growth Patterns ShiftIMF
Growth is likely to be driven by advanced economies, while the performance of emerging markets will be weaker than expected.

Video: World Economic Outlook Press ConferenceIMF

IMF Cuts Global Outlook While Warning of U.S. Default Threat BB
The IMF cut its global outlook for this year and next as capital outflows further weaken emerging markets and warned that a U.S. government default could “seriously damage” the world economy.

IMF cuts global growth forecast, warns of prolonged stupor Reuters
The IMF trimmed its forecasts for global output on Tuesday for the sixth time since early last year, saying stronger growth in most advanced economies would fail to make up for a more sluggish expansion in the developing world.

Highlights From World Economic Outlook: Who’s Growing Fastest?WSJ
The report sets the stage for meetings in Washington this week between finance ministers and central bankers from around the world.

IMF: crunching the Brics slowdownbeyondbrics / FT
The Fund has cut half a percentage point from its projection for overall EM growth for 2013, and 0.4 percentage points off its 2014 forecast – they are now 4.5 and 5.1 per cent, respectively. And it’s not all China. The big downward revisions for 2013 are India (-1.8 percentage points), Mexico (-1.7), and Russia (-1.0). But the real meat of the IMF’s report is a big section entitled “What Explains the Slowdown in the BRICS?”. The answer isn’t very pretty.

IMF Warns Washington Over Debt ImpasseWSJ

Global growth is slowing down at the worst possible timeWaPo
“In the United States, the projections are based on the key assumption that the ongoing shutdown in the federal government will be short-lived and the debt ceiling will be raised on time,” the IMF researchers write.

Hilarious Charts Of The Day: IMF's "Growth Forecasts" Over TimeZH

The IMF chart that tells you all you need to knowMoney Supply / FT
For successive IMF forecasts, the chart shows how far output is below the pre-2008 trend. This sort of “hedgehog chart”, so called because the spikes from incorrect forecasts can resemble the creature, demonstrates how thinking has changed in the fund since the crisis started.