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Friday, October 18

18th Oct - Weekender: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

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Weekly Scoreboard – Between The Hedges
US market portrait – Portfolio Probe

The Economist’s Weeklies:

The Weekenderalphaville / FT

The Weekenderbeyondbrics / FT

Succinct summation of the weekThe Big Picture

The Weekly Bull/Bear Recap RCS

Schedule for WeekCalculated Risk

Economic CalendarBerenberg (pdf)
Delayed US data: resilient September jobs data * UK Q3 GDP: strong consumer-led growth * Eurozone PMIs and Ifo index: moderate recovery continues into Q4 * EU Summit: banking union compromise

Economic CalendarHandelsbanken (pdf)

The Global Macro Week AheadWSJ
UK Next Week's AgendaHandelsbanken (pdf)

S&P 500 Earnings Week AheadReuters
Key Earnings Reports Next WeekBespoke

Wall Street Week AheadReuters 
A U.S. data clog will begin to clear next week and payrolls figures will land just as more than one-quarter of S&P 500 companies report earnings. But equities, at record highs, have already surpassed expectations for the year and could begin to drift sideways.

Weekly Focus: US recovery loses momentum short termDanske Bank (pdf)
With the end of the government shutdown in the US the calendar will return to normal. The September employment report will be released next week. The data should be undistorted and we expect a decent report. In the euro area a number of important soft data are due for release with PMIs as the most interesting – we expect further signs of a brighter economic outlook. We have revised our forecast for Q3 GDP growth in the UK upwards to 0.7% q/q. Minutes from Bank of England’s October meeting are due for release. Chinese flash HSCB manufacturing PMI is expected to have improved slightly. Japan’s CPI figure might emphasise that it will be very difficult for Bank of Japan to reach its 2% inflation target. In the Scandi sphere focus will be on monetary policy decisions in Sweden and Norway. We expect both central banks to keep their interest rates unchanged

Week Ahead Nordea (pdf)
US: The employment report is set to be released on Tuesday. Markets will pay attention to the data to assess the momentum in the US economy prior to the shutdown. Euro zone: PMIs and IFO will be out from the Euro zone next week but this time the numbers could be more volatile than previous months. UK: We expect little new information to come from the BoE minutes but see upside risks to the Q3 growth numbers. China: HSBC/Markit flash PMI will set the tone for AUD and NZD on Thursday and we expect the number to rise modestly and stay above the 50 mark.

Danske Technical UpdateDanske Bank (pdf)

Strategy: US stalls while China and Europe strengthenDanske Bank (pdf)
Once again US politicians struck a last-minute deal and once again fears were running high as the deadline got nearer. However, markets kept their cool and were buying the rumour of a deal more than trading on fear of a breach of the deadline. So where do we go from here?

Scandi Markets AheadDanske Bank (pdf)
Norges Bank and Riksbank in focus
Weighing the Week AheadA Dash of Insight 
Will Disappointing Earnings End the Stock Market Rally?

FX Outlook: Dollar breaks down Marc to Market 
The re-opening of the US government after a 16-day shutdown sparked a sell-off in the US dollar that has deteriorated the near-term technical outlook.  The combination of setting the stage for a repeat of the brinkmanship in early 2014 and the recognition that the Fed's long-term asset purchases are unlikely to be slowed this year, provides the fundamental backdrop.  

Key events in the week ahead by Goldman SachsZH

Weekly Credit UpdateDanske Bank (pdf)
CDS indices grind tighter as US reaches deal on debt ceiling

EMEA Weekly: comeback continues Danske Bank (pdf)

EM Bond Snapshot: benefit from Fed delay Danske Bank 

EM Preview of the Week AheadMarc to Market

EM Week Aheadbeyondbrics / FT

The Week Ahead – Europarliament
EU Week Ahead – WSJ
EU Week – euobserver

Economic Calendar –
Economic Calendar – BB
EU calendar –

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