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Wednesday, October 2

2n Oct - EU Open: ECB-day, US & Italian politics



Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Roundups
News roundup – Between The Hedges
The 6am Cut London – alphaville / FT
Emerging Markets Headlines – beyondbrics / FT
Asia Morning MoneyBeat: This Shutdown Thing May Have Some Legs – WSJ
Europe Morning MoneyBeat: Shutdown Weighs, ECB Looms WSJ


MORNING BRIEFINGS
3 Numbers to Watch: Spanish jobs, UK construction, US ADP jobsTradingFloor
The change in Spain’s jobless population, the UK Construction PMI, and the US ADP Employment Report are among the key numbers to watch today.

Market Preview: ECB policy meeting, US ADP employment report eyedTradingFloor
Against the backdrop of the continuing deadlock over US budget talks, European markets are expected to open mostly lower Wednesday. Traders are eyeing the ECB’s interest rate decision and a confidence vote in the Italian parliament for further cues.

Danske DailyDanske Bank (pdf)
Focus on politics in both the US and Italy. While we will likely have to wait before anything new happens in the US deadlock, today Italy’s prime minister is expected to win a vote of confidence in parliament. Italian markets rallied strongly yesterday as Silvio Berlusconi – the man who has been the main cause of trouble in Italian politics the past years – faces a major defeat... ECB will also be in the limelight today. We do not expect a rate cut or new measures from ECB but focus will be on signals on how high the bar is for ECB to provide new stimulus, such as a new 3Y LTRO.

Market comment: ECB to talk LTROsNordea
ECB meeting with focus on LTROs * Italian Fight Night * Market complacency to the US shut down * VAT hike in Japan

AamukatsausNordea
EKP:ltä vahdataan vinkkejä uusista toimista * Budjettikriisi uhkaa USA:n kasvua * Brittiteollisuuden kasvu hidastui hieman

AamukatsausTapiola (pdf)
Osakemarkkinoille nostetta USA:n vahvoista teollisuuden näkymistä, globaali ostopäällikköindeksimme jatkoi nousuaan. Tänään EKP:n korkokokous. Uusia tukitoimia ei odoteta, joten positiiviselle yllätykselle jää mahdollisuus.Osakefutuurit nollassa, indikoiden tasaista avausta OMX HEX:iin. Pohjoismaisten pankkien arvostusvertailu: Aktian ja Nordean arvostus vaikuttaa edelleen houkuttelevalta.

MarkkinakalenteriNordnet
MarkkinakalenteriTaloussanomat


UNITED STATES
US government shutdown: An impasse with GDP and political costsTradingFloor
The real cost of the US government shutdown will be paid by the economy, the unemployed and a lack of reforms. Year after year, decade after decade politicians remain locked in rhetoric at the expense of the economy. That's the price of incompetence.

OTHER
Commodities under pressure againSober Look
The rally in commodities, which started in August has petered out. Several major commodities indices show significant declines on a year-over-year basis.

FINNISH
Elinkeinoelämän tekemien virheiden nopea korjaaminen on mahdollista vain rahapolitiikan avullaTyhmyri