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Thursday, October 10

10th Oct - US Close: A Shutdown-Pause?




Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Roundups & Commentary
Markets – Between The Hedges
Daily Risk Monitor – Global Macro Monitor
The Closer – alphaville / FT
US: Stocks Soar Most In 2013 As Bullion And Boehner Beaten Down – ZH


EUROPE
France still doesn’t care much about the Stability Pact – Nordea

Chart of the Day - Volatility of Euro Zone peripheral yields – Macronomics

  EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
Monthly Bulletin, October 2013 – ECB (pdf)

Statistics Pocket Book, October 2013 – ECB (pdf)

Commodity prices and their role in assessing euro area growth and inflation – ECB (pdf)
Publication Article, Monthly Bulletin, October 2013

Reference interest rates: role, challenges and outlook – ECB (pdf)
Publication Article, Monthly Bulletin, October 2013

ECB to Create Currency Swap Line With China Central Bank – WSJ
Agreement, Set to Last Three Years, Underscores China's Growing Financial Heft

Q&A: What’s a Currency Swap Line? – WSJ

UNITED STATES
The Big-Bank Subsidy – Simon Johnson / NYT
The debate on very large financial institutions has reached an important moment. The stakes are high, as a strong report from the G.A.O. could influence policy. Not surprisingly, representatives of the big banks are pushing back as hard as they can on the notion that they receive subsidies of any kind.

  SHUTDOWN / CREDIT CEILING
Final Options: Wall Street Broaches Crazy Maneuvers To Avert Default – WSJ
With a key deadline for raising the nation’s debt ceiling a week away, Wall Street analysts and even President Barack Obama are talking openly about outlandish strategies to avoid default, from issuing Treasury debt with super-high interest rates to selling the gold at Fort Knox.

How the debt standoff could end, in one flowchart – WaPo
Treeing the full faith and credit – alphaville / FT
Nomura remain optimists even if they do think a solution will only come in the 11th hour:

Thinking the unlikely: Fixed income implications on a US default – Nordea (pdf)
What will happen if the unlikely scenario of a US default comes true?

Imagine the Fed bought defaulted Treasuries – alphaville / FT

What Next for US Fiscal Policy: A Dispassionate Discussion – Marc to Market

Treasury secretary: We spent 224 years building our credit. Only Congress can act to protect it. – WaPo

Should Obama just ignore the debt ceiling? These law professors think so. – WaPo

How the shutdown affects departments – WaPo

For U.S., Nov. 1 Seen as the Last Straw – WSJ

The Dollar and the Debt Ceiling – Project Syndicate
Barry Eichengreen: Sane governments do not default when they have a choice, especially not when they enjoy the “exorbitant privilege” of issuing the only true global currency. We are about to find out whether the US still has a sane government.

Bill Gross: We're buying what Fidelity is selling – CNBC
Schrodinger’s T-bill – alphaville / FT
Banks are making contingency plans to deal with the potential impact on the $5tn “repo market” of the US government missing a payment on its debt.

A CDS FAQ as Spreads on Sovereigns Move – WSJ
Cost to Insure Treasurys Over One Year Falls 9% – WSJ

Automatic Destabilizers – Krugman / NYT
The Debt Ceiling and the Housing Bust – Krugman / NYT

Debt Cap Raise Until Nov. 22 Gains Support to Bar Default – BB
The White House endorsed a short debt-limit increase with no policy conditions attached, signaling potential support for House Republicans’ plan for a month-long reprieve from a default. The idea, proposed today by House Speaker John Boehner, wouldn’t end the 10-day old partial shutdown of the federal government. The plan would push the lapse of U.S. borrowing authority to Nov. 22 from Oct. 17.

Republicans offer plan to postpone U.S. default – Reuters
Republicans in the House of Representatives offered a plan on Thursday that would postpone a possible U.S. default and urged President Barack Obama to negotiate an end to the 10-day government shutdown.

The shutdown just saved the world – WaPo
A shutdown made a breach of the debt ceiling less likely.

Nine ways the shutdown will get more painful as it drags on – WaPo
House Republicans are now floating a plan to raise the debt ceiling for another six weeks, until Nov. 22. That delays one possible crisis. But the federal government could remain shut down for the foreseeable future. Congress is still haggling over that.

  FEDERAL RESERVE
20 Simple Questions About The Federal Reserve – Slate
Matt Yglesias explains the Fed – The Money Illusion

Here Are Next Year's Voting Hawks And Doves – ZH

Fed’s Bullard: Shutdown Makes Tapering ‘Less Likely’ in October – WSJ
Fed’s Williams: Economic Data Will Determine Timing of Taper – WSJ

Calling on Yellen: Time for a Modest, Dull Fed – naked capitalism
Fed chair is always a hard job. Yellen is inheriting an even harder one. – WaPo
Seventeen academic papers of Janet Yellen's that you need to read – WaPo

ASIA
Asia’s housing bubbles put UK in shade – beyondbrics / FT

OTHER
EMEA Weekly, Week 42 – Danske Bank (pdf)
Rouble is a long way towards free float

The shadow banking system, crunched one way or another – alphaville / FT
Here’s a useful assessment of both shadow banking’s relationship to the real economy and how it will be affected by forthcoming regulatory reforms, by strategists at Barclays.

FINNISH
Ministerin vastuu siirrettiin virkamiehelle – Jyrki Virolainen

ETLAn eläkeraportti – Akateeminen talousblogi
Eläkejärjestelmän suunnittelun tavoitteena ei pitäisi olla työurien pidentäminen vaan hyvinvoinnin maksimointi - budjettirajoite ja käyttäytymisreaktiot huomioon ottaen.

Teollisuuden uudet tilaukset vähenivät elokuussa 9,9% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Teollisuustuotanto väheni elokuussa 1,5% YoY – Tilastokeskus