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Thursday, October 10

10th Oct - US Close: A Shutdown-Pause?

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Roundups & Commentary
Markets – Between The Hedges
Daily Risk Monitor – Global Macro Monitor
The Closer – alphaville / FT
US: Stocks Soar Most In 2013 As Bullion And Boehner Beaten Down – ZH

France still doesn’t care much about the Stability PactNordea

Chart of the Day - Volatility of Euro Zone peripheral yieldsMacronomics

Monthly Bulletin, October 2013ECB (pdf)

Statistics Pocket Book, October 2013ECB (pdf)

Commodity prices and their role in assessing euro area growth and inflationECB (pdf)
Publication Article, Monthly Bulletin, October 2013

Reference interest rates: role, challenges and outlookECB (pdf)
Publication Article, Monthly Bulletin, October 2013

ECB to Create Currency Swap Line With China Central BankWSJ
Agreement, Set to Last Three Years, Underscores China's Growing Financial Heft

Q&A: What’s a Currency Swap Line?WSJ

The Big-Bank SubsidySimon Johnson / NYT
The debate on very large financial institutions has reached an important moment. The stakes are high, as a strong report from the G.A.O. could influence policy. Not surprisingly, representatives of the big banks are pushing back as hard as they can on the notion that they receive subsidies of any kind.

Final Options: Wall Street Broaches Crazy Maneuvers To Avert Default WSJ
With a key deadline for raising the nation’s debt ceiling a week away, Wall Street analysts and even President Barack Obama are talking openly about outlandish strategies to avoid default, from issuing Treasury debt with super-high interest rates to selling the gold at Fort Knox.

How the debt standoff could end, in one flowchartWaPo
Treeing the full faith and credit alphaville / FT
Nomura remain optimists even if they do think a solution will only come in the 11th hour:

Thinking the unlikely: Fixed income implications on a US defaultNordea (pdf)
What will happen if the unlikely scenario of a US default comes true?

Imagine the Fed bought defaulted Treasuriesalphaville / FT

What Next for US Fiscal Policy: A Dispassionate DiscussionMarc to Market

Treasury secretary: We spent 224 years building our credit. Only Congress can act to protect it.WaPo

Should Obama just ignore the debt ceiling? These law professors think so.WaPo

How the shutdown affects departmentsWaPo

For U.S., Nov. 1 Seen as the Last StrawWSJ

The Dollar and the Debt CeilingProject Syndicate
Barry Eichengreen: Sane governments do not default when they have a choice, especially not when they enjoy the “exorbitant privilege” of issuing the only true global currency. We are about to find out whether the US still has a sane government.

Bill Gross: We're buying what Fidelity is selling CNBC
Schrodinger’s T-billalphaville / FT
Banks are making contingency plans to deal with the potential impact on the $5tn “repo market” of the US government missing a payment on its debt.

A CDS FAQ as Spreads on Sovereigns MoveWSJ
Cost to Insure Treasurys Over One Year Falls 9%WSJ

Automatic DestabilizersKrugman / NYT
The Debt Ceiling and the Housing BustKrugman / NYT

Debt Cap Raise Until Nov. 22 Gains Support to Bar DefaultBB
The White House endorsed a short debt-limit increase with no policy conditions attached, signaling potential support for House Republicans’ plan for a month-long reprieve from a default. The idea, proposed today by House Speaker John Boehner, wouldn’t end the 10-day old partial shutdown of the federal government. The plan would push the lapse of U.S. borrowing authority to Nov. 22 from Oct. 17.

Republicans offer plan to postpone U.S. defaultReuters
Republicans in the House of Representatives offered a plan on Thursday that would postpone a possible U.S. default and urged President Barack Obama to negotiate an end to the 10-day government shutdown.

The shutdown just saved the worldWaPo
A shutdown made a breach of the debt ceiling less likely.

Nine ways the shutdown will get more painful as it drags onWaPo
House Republicans are now floating a plan to raise the debt ceiling for another six weeks, until Nov. 22. That delays one possible crisis. But the federal government could remain shut down for the foreseeable future. Congress is still haggling over that.

20 Simple Questions About The Federal ReserveSlate
Matt Yglesias explains the FedThe Money Illusion

Here Are Next Year's Voting Hawks And DovesZH

Fed’s Bullard: Shutdown Makes Tapering ‘Less Likely’ in October – WSJ
Fed’s Williams: Economic Data Will Determine Timing of Taper – WSJ

Calling on Yellen: Time for a Modest, Dull Fed – naked capitalism
Fed chair is always a hard job. Yellen is inheriting an even harder one. – WaPo
Seventeen academic papers of Janet Yellen's that you need to read – WaPo

Asia’s housing bubbles put UK in shadebeyondbrics / FT

EMEA Weekly, Week 42Danske Bank (pdf)
Rouble is a long way towards free float

The shadow banking system, crunched one way or anotheralphaville / FT
Here’s a useful assessment of both shadow banking’s relationship to the real economy and how it will be affected by forthcoming regulatory reforms, by strategists at Barclays.

Ministerin vastuu siirrettiin virkamiehelleJyrki Virolainen

ETLAn eläkeraporttiAkateeminen talousblogi
Eläkejärjestelmän suunnittelun tavoitteena ei pitäisi olla työurien pidentäminen vaan hyvinvoinnin maksimointi - budjettirajoite ja käyttäytymisreaktiot huomioon ottaen.

Teollisuuden uudet tilaukset vähenivät elokuussa 9,9% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Teollisuustuotanto väheni elokuussa 1,5% YoY – Tilastokeskus