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Tuesday, October 8

8th Oct - US Close

IMF's WEO was discussed in the previous post. Today, again, the US shutdown and debt ceiling are on the agenda. But some very nice ones on Europe as well...

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Roundups & Commentary
Markets – Between The Hedges
Daily Risk Monitor – Global Macro Monitor
The Closer – alphaville / FT
US: Stocks Collapse To Biggest Two-Week Drop In 11 Months ZH

Europe: an end to fallacyEuropp / LSE
Andrew Duff and Guy Verhofstadt propose a new ‘fundamental law’ to replace the EU’s existing treaty framework. This incorporates a federal union in which the European Commission is transformed into a full democratic constitutional government and the European Court of Justice takes on the responsibilities of a supreme court. They argue that a European Union reformed along these lines would be more efficient, transparent, and accountable.

Jens Weidmann Aims a Low Blow at Rule-BreakersWSJ

Great Graphic: A Look at LTROsMarc to Market
The pending stress tests will likely accelerate [repayments] the risk is that as the LTRO repayments are made, it further reduces the excess liquidity in the euro system and may exert upward pressure on money market rates.

Penalties planned for banks receiving ECB aidFT
EU regulators overseeing next year’s long-awaited stress tests of the region’s banks are preparing to penalise any lender that remains reliant on the European Central Bank’s landmark cheap funding scheme.

Spain Plans Leap Back to Markets with 30-Year BondWSJ

Market Breadth Worries!Short Side of the Long

This is where all the money goesalphaville / FT
The two tables on where the money lies in the US and who looks after it are worth bringing to a wider audience

Credibility on the LineTim Duy’s Fed Watch
Federal Reserve communications are in disarray in the midst of a lack of internal consensus about either the costs and benefits of QE or the parameters for ending QE.  This does not bode well for an institution that increasingly relies on forward guidance to implement policy.

Time for Fed to rethink its forward guidance?WSJ
Last month’s surprise may have increased the odds that the committee will rework its forward guidance in some way

Fed’s Plosser: FOMC Missed ‘Excellent Opportunity’ to Taper in September – WSJ
Fed’s Pianalto Could Have Supported September Taper – WSJ

Economic Confidence Posts Fastest Drop Since 2008 CrisisWSJ
Gallup: Sharp decline in ConfidenceCalculated Risk

US Runs Out Of Cash As Soon As October 22 Revised BPC Forecast ShowsZH

It's terrifying what some top Republicans believe about the debt ceilingWaPo

The left thinks business controls the Republican Party. They're wrong.WaPo

10 ways the shutdown is making us less safeWaPo

VIX Breaks 20% And Stocks Hit 1-Month Lows As T-Bill Terror StrikesZH

Bonds Now Expecting Worse Debt Ceiling Confrontation Than August 2011, Stocks - Not So MuchZH

1 Month Bill Yield Explodes, Prices At 0.35% Highest Since LehmanZH

What's happening in the Treasury bill market today should terrify youWaPo

The Roots of the Government ShutdownStratfor / Econmatters
George Friedman: Each faction is deeply committed to its beliefs, and feels it would be corrupt to abandon them. Even if it means closing the government, even if it means defaulting on debt, ideology is a demanding mistress who permits no other lovers.

Obama Warns "No Magic Bullets", Exploring "All Default Contingencies"ZH

Yen, Abenomics and Portfolio FlowsMarc to Market

With Obama MIA, China Touts Multipolar WorldThe Diplomat

The 106 Finance People You Have To Follow On Twitter BI

  INSIGHTS Q4 OUTLOOK Saxo / TradingFloor
Nick Beecroft: Compromising factorsTradingFloor
The year of sticking to the well-trodden path was perhaps best epitomised by the US Fed’s last-minute loss of faith on tapering, an about-face decision that has damaged its credibility.

Ole Hansen: Holding fastTradingFloor
The no-taper decision may have been a boon for equities, but commodity markets are driven by demand and prices. With the US economy spluttering and China’s growth subdued, the fourth quarter will be stable for oil.

Mads Koefoed: Debt-ceiling curveballTradingFloor
The global economy looks set for some acceleration into the New Year, but the annual US political battle over the budget and the impact it has on the debt ceiling could throw a curveball into the economic picture.

John J. Hardy: Hard landingTradingFloor
The US Fed’s failure to give tapering lift-off at the tail end of Q3 may have sounded the death knell for its credibility, but it has also left markets wondering if it was nothing more than a one-meeting delay.

Peter Garnry: Aiming for new highsTradingFloor
As the global economy continues to make a slow recovery, not even the ‘joker’ of the US debt-ceiling bomb can stop equities soaring.

Steen Jakobsen: Driven to distractionTradingFloor
As world growth looks set to slow again and fiscal spending cuts and emerging
market woes move up the agenda, central banks are facing excruciating decisions – and the clock is ticking.

Puolifiktiivistä läppääHenri Myllyniemi

Ennusteitakin kovempi tulosJuhani Huopainen

Koskenkylä: Hallituksen rakennepaketti on tyhjä tynnyriPS
Hallituksen rakennepoliittisessa ohjelmassa on 18 sivua toiveita, tavoitteita ja hurskastelua. Kehittämisestä puhutaan yli 100 kertaa, konkreettisuutta on kovin vähän. Suomen Pankin ex-johtaja Heikki Koskenkylä analysoi ohjelman ehdotusten kestävyyttä ja sen mahdollisuuksia saattaa Suomi uudelleen nousuun.