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Monday, October 7

7th Oct - EU Open: still in shutdown, deadlines approaching

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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News roundup – Between The Hedges
The 6am Cut London – alphaville / FT
Emerging Markets Headlines – beyondbrics / FT
Asia Morning MoneyBeat: Closure Creates an Investor Opening – WSJ
Europe Morning MoneyBeat: Markets Keep Faith With DC, Just – WSJ

3 Numbers to Watch: EU Sentix, US IMX and consumer spendingTradingFloor
The EU Sentix Investor Confidence Index, followed by two US numbers—Gallup's Consumer Spending Index and Ameritrade’s Investor Movement Index (IMX)—are on today's shortlist of numbers to watch.

Market Preview: US budget talks, EU Sentix confidence data eyedTradingFloor
European markets are likely to open lower Monday amid worries over US budget deadlock. Traders will eye today’s Eurozone Sentix confidence data for further cues. Meanwhile, the World Bank lowered its growth outlook on China and developing East Asia.

Danske DailyDanske Bank (pdf)
Focus continues to be on negotiations about a temporary funding bill for the 2014 budget-year and raising the debt ceiling before 17 October. The House and Senate are not scheduled to be in session today and no meetings are planned.

Market comment: US political deadlock to hurt T-bill auctions?Nordea
Bond yields rise on Friday – bonds should find support again today * No quick end seen in US political deadlock * Eagerness for reforms in Japan already waning? * Banks continue to repay the ECB – excess liquidity approaching EUR 200bn * Uncertain data calendar ahead * US set to sell a lot of debt despite the looming debt ceiling

USA:n lokakuun työllisyysluvut uhattuna! * EURUSD korjasi alaspäin * Tänään euroalueen sijoittajien luottamusindeksi

AamukatsausTapiola (pdf)
Osakemarkkinoita painavana teemana jatkuu USA:n velkakattokiista, johon ei löytynyt viikonloppuna ratkaisua. USA:n tuloskausi käyntiin kuluvalla viikolla, huomenna raportoi Alcoa. Suomessa tuloskauden aloittaa keskiviikkona Basware. Nokian Renkaiden perjantain tulosvaroituksen jälkeinen kurssireaktio oikean suuruinen. Venäjän ja ruplan kehitys on riski myös Tikkurilalla, YIT:lle ja Stocmannille. Osakefutuurit nyt aamulla miinuksella, indikoiden laskuavausta OMX HEX:iin.


Book Review: The Single Currency and European Citizenship: Unveiling the Other Side of the CoinEuropp / LSE

Bone meets meatibexsalad
The second big story that accompanied the run-up in Spanish yields through spring and summer of 2012 was the supposedly massive exit of foreigners from the Spanish government bond market.

Lengthy negotiations but low risk of new election in GermanyNordea
It could easily take until December or even January until the new German coalition government will be in place (probably a Grand Coalition of Merkel’s CDU/CSU and the SPD).

Are You Ready for The Start of A New Earnings Season? EconMatters

The impact of a US technical default on long-term treasuriesSober Look
Politicians who think this will help balance the budget will soon realize that the collapse of tax revenue from either of these outcomes will far outweigh any supposed improvements in fiscal discipline.

Goldman Fears "Rapid Downturn In Economic Activity" If Debt Limit BreachedZH

Hitting the Ceiling: Disastrous or Utterly Disastrous?Krugman / NYT

Shutdown Update and ScheduleCalculated Risk
1) the shutdown was caused by groups making non-negotiable demands, 2) the shutdown will be expensive, and my guess is 3) the shutdown will probably end before Congress goes on recess (Oct-11)

We Are Now At War With Eastasia, I Mean The DeficitKrugman / NYT

US Default Risk Goes Up as Rest of World Gets Less RiskyBespoke

Wishing for US debt ceiling train wreckSober Look
How long will it take for the US Treasury to run out of funds if the October 17th deadline comes and goes without an increase in the debt ceiling? The answer is - less than a couple of weeks.

World Bank Cuts Asia Growth ForecastWSJ
The World Bank cut its 2013 growth forecast for developing East Asian economies to 7.1% because of slower growth in China and other nations in the region.

Real Japanese Government Bond Yields Turn NegativeWSJ

FX Comment: blind spotNordea

Global Macro UpdateShort Side of the Long

A Closer Look At The VIXShort Side of the Long

Get set for the relief rallyHumble Student

Rising Global Manufacturing Momentum Nears An Inflection PointZH

The Market Today: What's Working And What Isn't So Far In 2013ZH

What we need from the IMF/World Bank meetingsThe A-list / FT

6 Key Investment Themes For The Next DecadeAsia Confidential
Asia outbound tourism * Privatisation of state-owned assets * Low to mid-end consumption * Gold * Agriculture * Infrastructure
Kannattaako "taloususkonnosta" tietää yhtään mitään?Henri Myllyniemi

Talouspoliittisia ihmiskokeitaTyhmyri
Euroalueen talouspolitiikka erityisen tuhoisaa