22nd Dec - Finland

21st Dec - Mostly Spain's elections

20th Dec - W/E: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week’s post is here.  

The blog will enter holiday mood with sporadic posting and shall return to normal in 2016.

18th Dec - Quiet Friday

17th Dec - Post-hike, USD stronger

16th Dec - Fed hikes, almost nothing happens

15th Dec - Eve of the Fed

14th Dec - Sell-off continues

12th Dec - W/E: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week’s post is here.  This post will be updated as new material is published.

11th Dec - Another risk-off

10th Dec - Slow

9th Dec - Politicals

8th Dec - A day for risk-off

7th Dec - Post-OPEC, waiting Fed

6th Dec - W/E: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week’s post is here.  This post will be updated as new material is published.

4th Dec - Moderate US jobs guarantee the rate hike

3rd Dec - ECB's delivery disappoints

2nd Dec - Almost ECB-time!

1st Dec - ECB in thoughts

30th Nov - Big week ahead

28th Nov - W/E: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week’s post is here.  

27th Nov - Europe's sentiment keeps improving

26th Nov - Oct M3, lending in line

25th Nov - ECB to go very unconventional?

24th Nov - US GDP revised higher

23rd Nov - Good PMIs in Europe

22nd Nov - W/E: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week.

20th Nov - Dovish Draghi, Mysterious EZ

19th Nov - Fed seen hiking, but carefully

18th Nov - Fed minutes lock Dec hike

17th Nov - After Paris, Belgium in Focus

16th Nov - Post-Paris Europe

13th Nov - Weak macro in EZ & US, migrants, G20

12th Nov - Migrant crisis spins

11th Nov - Portugal loses government

10th Nov - USD strengthens again

9th Nov - ECB signals dovish

8th Nov - W/E: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here. This post will be updated as new material is published.

6th Nov - Strong jobs, Fed to hike in Dec

5th Nov - Everyone but Fed scared

4th Nov - Yellen keeps Dec hike alive

3rd Nov - Waiting for US jobs Friday

Me: Why worry about politics in the eurozone ? The EZ will not fly. If democracy will not accept that, the economics will force the issue.

Z: ...or democracy will put an end to the EZ

Me: I don't think it will, but I did hope so. There are market failures and democracy failures. Euro is both.

Z: Usually it's up to the market to give the final blow.

Me: I'd say euro is a  failure of the market (markets allowed it to exist) and of democracy (which created it). Since 2010 markets have done what they could to break the euro. Democracy failed to understand the message.

2nd Nov - PMI day

1st Nov - W/E: Weekly Support

 Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

29th Oct - EZ sentiment improves, US GDP doesn't

28th Oct - Fed stands pat, but Dec odds increase

27th Oct - Weak UK GDP, EZ M3, US durable goods

26th Oct - German IFO, easy before events

25th Oct - W/E: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here. This post will be updated as new material is published.

23rd Oct - Risk-on following ECB, positive data

22nd Oct - ECB says "in December", risk-on

21st Oct - BoE on Brexit, EC on EZ

20th Oct - ECB ahead, EU talk

19th Oct - China as bad as expected

18th Oct - W/E: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here. This post will be updated as new material is published.

16th Oct - Eyes turning to ECB

15th Oct - EU Summit, central bankers

14th Oct - More bad data, EUR rises

13th Oct - Bad data sours markets

12th Oct - Fed seen 50-50 in Dec or 2016

12th Oct - W/E: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. This post will be updated as new material is published.

29th Sep - The bottom?

28th Sep - The falling Monday - low of the week?

27th Sep - W/E: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here. This post will be updated as new material is published.

25th Sep - EZ M3 disappoints

24th Sep - Yellen keeps hike in play

22nd Sep - EUR weakens

21st Sep - Speech week

20th Sep - W/E: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here. This post will be updated as new material is published.

18th Feb - Lazy Friday

17th Sep - Fed did not hike

16th Sep - Rally ahead of Fed

15th Sep - Closing and closing on Fed

14th Sep - Fed week ahead

12th Sep - W/E: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here. This post will be updated as new material is published.

11th Sep - US prices, consumer confidence surprise

10th Sep - Boring

9th Sep - Juncker's State of the Union-speech

8th Sep - Bad data from China

7th Sep - US labor day starts the week

Due to US-holiday, no charts today (see previous post) and posting earlier than usual. Happy market holidays!

6th Sep - W/E: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here. This post will be updated as new material is published.

4th Sep - US job report brings no certainty

3rd Sep - ECB dovish

2nd Sep - Waiting for ECB

1st Sep - Bearish day marks the new month

31st Aug - UK holiday silences end-of-month

29th Aug - W/E: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here. This post will be updated as new material is published.

28th Aug - EURUSD hit lows as US yield rose

27th Aug - After dovish central banks, good data

26th Aug - ECB and Fed talking dovish

25th Aug - Turnaround Tuesday (?)

24th Aug - Black Monday

23rd Aug - W/E: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here. This post will be updated as new material is published.

21st Aug - A very pessimistic close of the week

20th Aug - "Global bad feelings"

19th Aug - Markets viewed minutes as dovish

18th Aug - UK inflation scares - why?

17th Aug - High EZ trade surplus

16th Aug - W/E: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here. This post will be updated as new material is published.

14th Aug - Europe's Q2 GDP mediocre

13th Aug - China's third hit

12th Aug - Another bear day, bottom?

11th Aug - China's devaluation crashes markets

10th Aug - A bottom is found

9th Aug - W/E: Weekly Support

Sorry about the pause in posting – I had computer trouble. Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here. This post will be updated as new material is published.

6th Aug - Weak EZ retail sales, US data strong

3rd Aug - China, commodities weak

2nd Aug - W/E: Linkfest

1st Aug - W/E: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here. This post will be updated as new material is published.

31st Jul - Low Q2 wage growth kills inflation outlook

30th Jul - US GDP minor disappointment

29th Jul - Fed explains not much

28th Jul - Markets find bottom ahead of Fed

27th Jul - Nasty risk-off on China's sell-off

26th Jul - W/E: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here. This post will be updated as new material is published.

24th Jul - China's PMI not good

23rd Jul - Risk-off continues

22nd Jul - Greek parliament votes

21st Jul - Risk-off in Eq, FX and a new IMF chief-eco

20th Jul - Krugman & Beckworth hit europhiles

19th Jul - W/E: Linkfest

19th Jul - W/E: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week.

17th Jul - German parliament says 'Ja'

16th Jul - Greek bridge built, ECB increases ELA

16th Jul - Guest: Credit - A Cadmean victory

Cross-post from Macronomics:

15th Jul - Greek parliament votes

14th Jul - Waiting the Greek parliament

Previously:

Monday: ”Deal”: an agreement to negotiate

Monday: Greece update

W/E: Linkfest

Friday: Greek weekend ahead

Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter

EUROPE

ECB Preview: Questions about Greece, Greece and ... Greece – Danske Bank

ECB preview: for Greece, it’s a waiting game – Nordea

The agreement between Greece and the three institutions takes some suspense out of the ECB’s monetary policy meeting on Thursday. Still, important questions related to Greece will dominate the press conference:  ELA, the T-bill issuance limit, Greek banks’ health. As long as a bailout is not a done deal, the ECB can hardly remove any restrictions. Monetary policy will play second fiddle. We expect no changes and no indications of upcoming policy changes either.

How A "Eurozone Breakdown" Became A True Black Swan Event – ZH

In May not a single respondent even mentioned EZ breakdown as risk – in July it perceived the biggest tail risk.

Results of the July 2015 euro area bank lending survey – ECB

Olivier Blanchard fails to recognise two major IMF mistakes in Greece – Bruegel

Professor Blanchard Writes a Greek Tragedy – Bruegel

Spanish bemoan humiliating defeat in Brussels – FT

The Euro – A Monetary Strangulation Mechanism – Lars Christensen

  GREECE

Greek crisis turns European – George Magnus

There is no Greek deal – Politico

The Troika And The Five Families – Automatic Earth

Einhorn Says Europe Letting Greece Collapse to Stop Populism – ZH

Greek Crisis Talks Put French-German Ties to the Test – WSJ

The all-nighter that kept Greece in euro – Politico

Gideon Rachman: Germany’s conditional surrender – FT

Finally, Greece Has a Chance to Rebound – PIIE

AEP: Greece is being treated like a hostile occupied state – The Telegraph

The IMF May Twist Itself Again to Help Keep Greece Afloat – WSJ

The German view on Greece: “There is no sense of glee about this.” – WaPo

Mark Gilbert: Greece and Europe: An Unhealthy Affair – View / BB

Editors: Greece Should Just Quit – View / BB

Charles Wyplosz: The new European Union – VoxEU

Clive Crook: Europe Owns This Disaster – View / BB

Greeks Rebel Against Bailout, Risk Collapse – Yves Smith

Greece needs debt relief far beyond EU plans - Secret IMF report – Reuters

Greece May Need Even More Debt Relief, Financing Than IMF Estimated – WSJ

I love Germany. And Greece. And especially Finland – Steve Waldman

Greece and the Future of Europe – Marc Chandler

Schäuble undermines Greek deal – Politico

IMF May Walk Away From Greek Bailout – ZH

 

REGULARS

Daily Central Banks – WSJ

Hilsenrath’s Take: Janet Yellen Has Relationship Issues * Yellen’s Fed Flounders in Political Arena * U.S. Finds ‘No Single Cause’ of Treasurys Tremor * Wall Street’s Top Cop Takes Harder Line * ECB To Leave Emergency Lending for Greek Banks Unchanged

Daily Macro – WSJ

Having been preoccupied with Greece and China for much of the past month, investors switched their attention to Iran on Tuesday following a landmark deal between the country and global powers, led by the U.S., over its nuclear program. The deal could yet fail – there’s plenty of mistrust on both sides – but for now it raises the prospects of a hefty stream of Iranian oil hitting an already glutted global economy. Little wonder that crude prices continued to fall in early trading. Elsewhere, Chinese equities pulled back slightly following the hefty rally of the previous three sessions and eurozone equities suffered a bout of profit-taking in a post-Greek deal breather. Now comes the hard part for the Greek government–legislating and implementing its agreement.

Morning MoneyBeat Asia – WSJ

U.S. Stocks Rally as Europe Steps Back From the Edge

Morning MoneyBeat Europe – WSJ

Markets Pause After Monday’s Euphoria

Morning MoneyBeat US – WSJ

Banks Should Boost Overall Earnings Growth Rate

Danske Daily – Danske Bank

Euro rates update – Nordea

Eye-Opener – Nordea

Eurogroup discusses bridge financing while Tsipras faces a revolt * US retail data and inflation prints from UK and Sweden * Holland’s Dijsselbloem won vote to continue as Eurogroup president

Morning Markets – TF

WTI crude is drifting lower as the global powers look to be reaching an agreement on Iran's nuclear programme.

Daily FX Comment – Marc Chandler

Consolidation Awaiting Fresh Developments

Daily Shot – TF

The onerous terms of that deal means Greece will almost certainly be back at the negotiating table in the not-too-distant future.

Daily Press Summary – Open Europe

Tsipras faces party rebellion as Greek parliament prepares to vote on bailout measures * UK could face request to underwrite €850m share of Greek bridging loan * Dijsselbloem re-elected Eurogroup President for second term * Le Figaro: Greek deal should serve as a warning to France that Europe is merciless * Romanian Prime Minister Victor Ponta refuses to step down over corruption charges * UK faces fine over handling of EU farm payments

Brussels Playbook – Politico

US Open – ZH

Stocks Get Second Thoughts About Greek Deal: Turn Red From China To Europe

Frontrunning – ZH

FX Update – TF

EURUSD is trading below 1.1000 this morning, a significant level that opens the way for 1.0500 and beyond, provided the parliamentary votes on the Greek deal in Greece and across Europe don’t throw up any roadblocks.

From the Floor – TF

The Greek deal is in, and markets appear confident that the Greek parliament will ensure its safe passage in tomorrow's vote. Why, then, does everything still feel so... unresolved?

FINNISH

Aamukatsaus – Nordea

Kreikan eurojäsenyys edelleen ohuen langan varassa | Tänään julkaistaan USA:n vähittäismyyntiluvut | Ruotsissa inflaatio hidastuu hieman

Paavo Väyrynen: Kansanäänestys Suomen jäsenyydestä euroalueessa – US

Jussi Saramo: Eurooppalainen unelma kuoli – US

Teollisuuden liikevaihto helmi-huhtik. väheni runsaat 2% YoY – Tilastokeskus

Palvelujen liikevaihto helmi-huhtik.  +4,8% YoY – Tilastokeskus

Inflaatio kesäkuussa -0,1 prosenttia – Tilastokeskus

13th Jul - "Deal": an agreement to negotiate

13th July - Greece update

12th Jul - W/E: Linkfest

10th Jul - Greek weekend ahead

9th Jul - Greece submits

8th Jul - Greece's deadline now Sunday

7th Jul - More Greece. IMF Art.4 on US, Italy

6th July - Only Greece

5th Jul - Greece Referendum Preview Special

3rd Jul - Random reading: Sovereign Default

3rd Jul - Greece referendum polls split

1st Jul - Post-default, waiting for referendum

30th Jun - D-Day for Greece, Referendum ahead

30th Jun - 4 of my recent ones on Greece, EZ's future

Why Greece matters to the other crisis countries

The eurocrisis countries are not OK. The nonperforming loans are encumbering their banks' balance sheets, and not enough has been done to change this. This keeps the crisis countries politically on a tight leash, as creditor countries' political and probably financial support is inevitable. This explains why politicians in Spain and Italy remain loyal toward the EU and why they act passive-aggressively toward Greece. But what happens later this year, when Portugal and Spain hold elections?

 

Worst-case Greece scenario is tolerable, so be bullish

While there is cautious optimism about a deal being made to resolve the Greek debt crisis, make no mistake – there will be losses at some point. But a quick look of the worst possible outcome suggests that they might not be that bad. So did the stock market get scared into a big correction, just before it makes a big rally?

 

Contagion from Greece: don't worry - yet

There will be no contagion from Greece. The euro area's leaders have blocked every channel that could cause harm. The only remaining contagion channel is themselves, as they will now be unable to complete the monetary union as a result of their actions over Greece.

   

What happens after the Grexit and what to watch out for

In my third article on Greece, I outline what will be next on the agenda. Losses from Greece will have to be handled somehow, and the European Central Bank will do what is expected from it - but nothing more, and nothing less. The key will be how the European institutions handle the country-specific economic control - too much or too little, someone will become alienated.

29th Jun - Panic dip bought eagerly

28th Jun - W/E: Linkfest (mostly Greece)

28th Jun - W/E: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here. This post will be updated as new material is published.

26th Jun - "The last weekend" begins

25th Jun - Last weekend for Greece

24th Jun - Less "Hope" and no results

23rd Jun - Even more "Hope", but no results

22nd Jun - "Hope", but no results on Greece

21st Jun - W/E: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here. This post will be updated as new material is published.

18th Jun - Eurogroup on Greece fails

17th Jun - Fed slowly for Sep hike, as expected

16th June - Still waiting for Fed & Greece

15th Jun - Waiting for Fed & Greece

14th Jun - W/E: Linkfest

14th Jun - W/E: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here. This post will be updated as new material is published.

12th Jun - "Greece has 24 hours"

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

Thursday: Greece running out of time

Wednesday: Euro debated

Tuesday: Boring

Monday: When failure is a sign of success

W/E: Weekly Support

Friday: Good US job-data

Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter

EUROPE

Great Graphic: Euro Real Broad Effective Exchange Rate and Merkel – Marc Chandler

Merkel Defends ECB From German Criticism After Deflation Scare – BB

  GREECE 

Euro zone formally discusses Greek default for first time – Reuters

How Europe Formally Discussing A Greek Default Shook Markets – ZH

Merkel urges Greece and creditors to keep pushing for deal – Reuters

Greece’s IMF Setback: Has Anything Really Changed? – WSJ

EU looks at Plan B for Greece – Politico

Greek Stocks, Bank Bonds Battered As Deal Hope Fades – ZH

Greece Refuses To Blink; EU Says Noncompliance "Not An Option" – ZH

Grexit Contagion - European Peripheral Bond Risk Is Soaring – ZH

Europe Gives Greece 24 Hours To Comply; Germany Draws Up Capital Control Plans – ZH

Athens defies creditors’ warning on aid – FT

Salvation to Catastrophe: What Might Happen to Greece – BB

EU Prepares for Worst as Greece Goes to Brink – BB

Keeping Greece in the Euro May Not Be About Euros – BB

Greece Counts Cost of One Man’s Gamble – BB

UNITED STATES

FOMC preview: Fed to signal rate hike later this year – Nordea

The Fed is unlikely to make any policy changes at next week’s FOMC meeting. However, we expect the central bank to affirm its signal that it will be appropriate to lift rates at some point this year. The main focus will be on the FOMC’s revised fed funds rate projections. We continue to expect lift-off in Fed rates at the 16-17 September FOMC meeting.

 
  DATA

Producer Prices Jump MoM Most Since Sept 2012 Driven By Higher Energy Costs – ZH

U.S. producer prices post largest gain since 2012 – Reuters

US consumer confidence rebounds in June – TF

Preliminary June Consumer Sentiment increases to 94.6 – Bill McBride

U.S. consumer sentiment climbs in June – Reuters

REGULARS

Daily Central Banks – WSJ

Hilsenrath’s Take: Reassuring Consumer Data Keep Fed On Track for Rate Increases * WSJ Survey: Fed Won’t Raise Rates Before September * Fed Meetings May Be Live, But Here’s Why They’re Unlikely to Surprise * Draghi: ECB Didn’t Give Privileged Information to Fund Managers * BOE’s McCafferty Says Downside Risks to Inflation Diminishing

Daily Macro – WSJ

Greece once again takes the headlines amid reports that the International Monetary Fund has had enough of bailout talks that draw no closer to resolution. The Greek government still has a bit of time to strike some sort of bargain with its creditors and is likely to use all of it to squeeze out the best possible deal. So with its IMF payments not due until the end of the month, there’s every chance the current drama will see another twist or two over the coming week or so.

Morning MoneyBeat Asia – WSJ

U.S. Stocks Rise on Sales Improvement

Morning MoneyBeat Europe – WSJ

Stocks to Struggle as IMF Leaves the Building

Morning MoneyBeat US – WSJ

Lack of Optimism Suggests Stocks Could Rise

Danske Daily – Danske Bank

Euro rates update – Nordea

Eye-Opener – Nordea

EUR/USD dips * Happy US consumers * Swedish rate cut off the table on strong inflation print

Morning Markets – TF

We've been here so many times, but are we really now approaching the endgame on Greece? Certainly, the niceties of the diplomatic circuit were conspicuous by their absence as the IMF left the negotiations and Greece got a stern dressing down.

Daily FX Comment – Marc Chandler

Dollar Remains Bid

Daily Shot – TF

The IMF has walked out of its negotiations with Greece, and many are saying the Eurogroup should do the same. The move saw German bund yields fell sharply as hope for a solution dims.

Daily Press Summary – Open Europe

IMF recalls officials as hope for deal with Greece fade * David Cameron continues EU reform talks ahead of June EU summit * ECB denies suggestions it failed to provide privileged information to entire market * La Stampa: European Commission considers dropping binding refugee quotas * Dijsselbloem likely to stay on as Eurogroup head * Podemos-backed candidate will become new Mayor of Madrid * EU launches antitrust probe against Amazon

Brussels Playbook – Politico

US Open – ZH

Markets Twist And Turn On Every Headline In The Endless Greek Tragedy

Frontrunning – ZH

FX Update – TF

FX traders are nervously eyeing what may prove a huge week for FX as we have three important central bank meetings (Fed, SNB and Norges Bank) as well as a potentially pivotal Eurogroup meeting for the “Greece issue” next Thursday.

From the Floor – TF

Bonds have rebounded after yesterday's dramatic withdrawal by the IMF from the Greek debt talks.

FINNISH

Aamukatsaus – Nordea

Mahdollisimman moni suu makiaksi | Koroissa korjausliike alaspäin | USA:n vähittäismyyntiluvut vahvat

Tällaiset olisivat Kreikan euroeron vaikutukset – Verkkouutiset

Saksan ja Ranskan demarit haastavat SSS-hallituksen – Antti Ronkainen

Jari Korkki: Yhden Ässän kyselytunti – YLE

11th Jun - Greece running out of time

10th Jun - Euro debated

9th Jun - Boring

8th Jun - When failure is a sign of success

7th Jun - W/E: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here. This post will be updated as new material is published.

5th Jun - Good US job-data

4th Jun - Greece close to edge

3rd Jun - ECB-meeting fails to stop EUR and bonds

2nd Jun - EURUSD spikes on inflation

1st Jun - Greece, ECB, payrolls this week

31st May - W/E: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here. This post will be updated as new material is published.

29th May - Neutral data from Europe

28th May - Finland got a new government

26th May - USD strength

24th May - W/E: Linkfest - lots of economics

24th May - W/E: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here. This post will be updated as new material is published.

Guest: Credit - Optimal bluffing

Here's the latest cross-post by Martin from Macronomics.

22nd May - Draghi "structural-only", US CPI jumps

21st May - Mediocre May PMIs

20th May - FOMC minutes: Fed careful

19th May - EUR plummets on ECB comments

18th May - Greece again at deadline

17th May - W/E: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here. This post will be updated as new material is published.

15th May - US industry in trouble, USD weakens

15th May - Charts

14th May - Quiet end of the week

14th May - Credit guest: "Cushing's syndrome"

A crosspost from and courtesy of Macronomics - the deep end of the pool for market swimmers.

13th May - EMU's future leaked

12th May - Greece loans from IMF to pay IMF

11th May - Eurogroup today

10th May - W/E: Linkfest

10th May - W/E: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here. This post will be updated as new material is published.

8th May - Mediocre payrolls save rate hikes?

7th May - Market rout reverses?

6th May - Finland targets super-austerity

5th May - UK elections, US payrolls, Greece ahead

4th May - PMI day: China contracting

2nd May - W/E: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here. This post will be updated as new material is published.

1st May - Despite holidays, trends went on

30th Apr - USD bears in control, bonds slump

29th Apr - USD sell-off on GDP, but Fed reverses

28th Apr - UK's Q1 GDP not great

27th Apr - Eventful week ahead

26th Apr - W/E: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here. This post will be updated as new material is published.

24th April - Just the regulars (sorry, flu)

23rd Apr - Not as good April PMIs

22nd Apr - Still waiting...

21st Apr - Grexit fears

20th Apr - China eases, but Greece a worry

19th Apr - Suomen eduskuntavaalit

18th Apr - W/E: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here. This post will be updated as new material is published.

17th Apr - European rout, Grexit fears

16th Apr - Grexit fears, post-ECB calm

15th Apr - Bad Chinese and US macro, Boring ECB

14th Apr - IMF's outlook, bad US retail sales

13th Apr - Bad macro from China

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

W/E: Weekly Support

Friday: USD up, DAX up

Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter

EUROPE

The impact of an exchange rate realignment on the trade balance: Euro vs. national currency - Some preliminary results with a/simmetrie model of the Italian economy – IDEAS

Frances Coppola: Optimising the Eurozone – Pieria

Debunking the Causes of the Eurozone Crisis – Yves Smith

Swiss told to vote again on free movement – Open Europe

Despite the Swiss public voting for restricting EU free movement, the EU has flat-out refused to enter into negotiations on this topic. Open Europe's Pawel Swidlicki looks at the implications not only for the wider EU-Swiss relationship but also for the UK.

Russia’s shocking rebound – WaPo

The ruble has climbed 34 percent in just two months

  GREECE

Anders Borg: Why Europe Needs to Save Greece – Project Syndicate

Analysis - Greece may have blown best hope of debt deal – Reuters

Time running out on Greek debt talks, says top EU official – Reuters

"We Have Come To The End Of The Road" – ZH

Greece prepares for debt default if talks with creditors fail – FT

  EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK

ECB Tries To Fix Money Markets It Broke, Fails – ZH

ECB Taper Date "Announced" On Twitter; SocGen Begs To Diff – ZH

German 10-year bond yields heading below zero – FT

The ECB has expected AD growth right where it wants it – Scott Sumner

Why the ECB and Germany Are Causing Each Other Headaches – WSJ

UNITED STATES

Flattening Yield Curve Latest Complication for Fed – WSJ

ASIA

China's March exports shrink 15 percent year-on-year in shock fall – Reuters

China: plunge in exports in March mainly due to Chinese New Year – Danske Bank

Wall Street Reacts To China's Shocking Trade Data – ZH

REGULARS

Daily Central Banks – WSJ

Hannon’s Take: Have Central Banks Learned to Distinguish “Good” from “Bad” Deflation? * Richmond Fed’s Lacker Still Sees Strong Case to Raise Rates in June * Minneapolis Fed’s Kocherlakota: Fed Shouldn’t Raise Rates in 2015 * Germany’s Rising Wages Bode Well for Global Economy * China Moves to Strengthen Control Over Its Policy Banks

Daily Macro – WSJ

German bonds are rallying ever further, with yields on 10-year debt approaching negative territory… the data out of Beijing increasingly reflect the end of an era of strong Chinese growth. A poor export performance demonstrates the bind that the government is in; it can’t easily resort to a weaker yuan to boost overseas demand.

Danske Daily – Danske Bank

Euro rates update – Nordea

Eye-Opener – Nordea

Chinese GDP to disappoint: Chinese growth likely cooled further in Q1 * Euro-area yields pressured : Zero no longer a fantasy on the 10Y bund yield * The door is open for more EUR/USD downside

Daily FX Comment – Marc to Market

Dollar Extends Gains as China's Exports Slump

Daily Shot – TF

Chinese growth appears to be slowing, but a devaluation of the currency is not in line with Beijing's hopes for the yuan. Meanwhile, US oil markets are having widespread effects on the country's economy

  

US Open – ZH

China Stocks Soar To 7 Year High After Collapse In Exports; US Futures Slip On Continuing Dollar Surge

FX Update – TF

USD strength has broadened to start the week as AUDUSD and NZDUSD pushed sharply lower on a weak Chinese trade balance release. Meanwhile, EURUSD is trying to make a stand in the 1.0600 area ahead of the ECB meeting on Wednesday.

From the Floor – TF

We're not recommending them yet, but Russian equities are blazing a trail and still have some way to go yet, especially if oil fundamentals begin to change. Despite some pickup though, there's no real sign of that yet.

  

Martin Sandbu’s Free Lunch – FT

What do we know about candidate Clinton's economic policy views?

OTHER

KVP's Macro Take: It's time for India, the baby China, to stand up – TF

The coming week sees a flurry of Fed speakers and heavy economic data from the US and China (Q1 GDP) * Probably most anticipated central bank meeting will be from the Bank of Canada * People may have a snapshot of India, but they are missing the big picture

ECONOMICS

*Report to Congress on International Economic and Exchange Rate Policies – US Treasury

U.S. warns Europe against relying too much on exports – Reuters

Pot, kettle, QE – Breakingviews

The limits of monetary policy – Frances Coppola

Artificial separation of fiscal and monetary policy cripples policymaking. It is time for monetary and fiscal policymakers to acknowledge their joint role in generating economic growth and preventing future crises.

Wolfgang Münchau: Macroeconomists need new tools to challenge consensus – FT

For the moment, the traditionalists still rule -

Outlaw economics – The Economist

Policies to shift income from rich to poor may prove less effective than imagined

Should we be spooked by deflation? A look at the historical record – vox

European firm adjustment during times of economic crisis – ECB

Commercial bank failures during the Great Recession: the real (estate) story – ECB

Exports and domestic demand pressure: a dynamic panel data model for the euro area countries – ECB

Global Financial Market Impact of the Announcement of the ECB's Extended Asset Purchase Programme – FED

Financial assistance measures in the euro area from 2008 to 2013: statistical framework and fiscal impact – ECB

Cyclically adjusted deficits and instability – Simon Wren-Lewis

Paul Krugman: Where Government Excels – NYT

Yanis Varoufakis and Joseph Stiglitz – Youtube

Buiter on the death of cash – FT

The True Levels of Government and Social Expenditures in Advanced Economies – PIIE

OFF-TOPIC

3 Things Psychopaths Can Teach You About Being A Happier Person – Bakadesuyo

Watching Rocky II with Muhammad Ali – Roger Ebert

 “The regular average layman couldn’t see what I see. And the way they’re painting the trainer is all wrong. Look at him there, screaming, Do this! and Do that! I never had anyone telling me what to do. I did it. Shouting at the fighter like that makes him look like an animal, like a horse to be trained.”

http://www.rogerebert.com/interviews/watching-rocky-ii-with-muhammad-ali

The Rise and Fall of the Drexel Empire – BB

The world will only get weirder – Steve Coast

Six Strategy Traps – Farnam Street

FINNISH

Aamukatsaus – Nordea

EKP keskittyy toteuttamaan suunnitelmiaan |  Suomen teollisuuden alkuvuosi surkea | Inflaatio valokeilassa tällä viikolla

Jan Hurri: Kaksi liian vaikeaa kysymystä vaaleihin – TalSa

Vaaleihin on enää viikko aikaa, mutta ainakin pääpuolueet ja niiden ehdokkaat vaikenevat visusti ainakin kahdesta Suomenkin talouden kohtalon kysymyksestä ja todellisesta rakenneongelmasta: euron haitoista ja euroalueen vaivihkaisesta liittovaltiokehityksestä.

Suomen viennin romahdus – ennustettavaa joskin valitettavaa – Tyhmyri

Suomi: Teollisuuden alkuvuosi surkea – Nordea

Helmikuun teollisuustuotanto, uudet tilaukset sekä tavaravienti kertovat karun tarinan. Suomalaisen teollisuuden alkuvuosi on sujunut huomattavan heikosti.

"Velkaantumisen tie voi olla suomettumisen tie" – Verkkouutiset

Keskuskauppakamarin toimitusjohtaja Risto E. J. Penttilä varoittaa, että velkaantumiskehitys saattaa suistaa Suomen suomettumisen tielle.

Maahanmuuton kustannuksista – VATT