Monday, March 31
31st Mar - Disinflation in EZ
Yellen spoke (dovish), euro area's inflation in March fell to alarmingly low 0.5 percent (ECB meeting next Thursday) and a new book from Michael Lewis.
Sunday, March 30
Saturday, March 29
29th Mar - W/E: Best of the Week
Here
are the ”best” from my posts of the ending week. Last week’s edition here.
EUROPE: The divergence between France and Germany becoming smaller, expectations remain positive but inflation remains very low and looks weakish. ECB has gone extra-dovish in its comments, but Germans are sending fiscally tight messages and promising further integration - more iron maidens and "one size fits all"-policies, I guess. The IMF agreed on a big bailout of Ukraine, but the geopolitical situation remains open to further trouble.
US: Fed continues sounding hawkish, and no serious attempt to downplay the "six months after QE is over"-line that Yellen presented at the last FOMC meeting. The Fed is also being tight against the big banks, and probably thinks or at least is scared that the easy money has created an opportunity for another leverage-fest to build within the big banks.
ASIA: China's bad news continue, in fact the newsflow has been so bad that there have been speculation that easier monetary and/or fiscal policy would soon be announced to ease the pressures.
FINLAND: New austerity measures were launched to keep the country within the Maastricht criteria. The far left party Vasemmistoliitto left the government as a result.
Thursday, March 27
Wednesday, March 26
Tuesday, March 25
Monday, March 24
Sunday, March 23
Saturday, March 22
23rd Mar - W/E: Weekly Support
Here are the links to
the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last
week's 'Support' here.
The week explained: March 21st 2014, by The Economist: Russia's annexation of Crimea, Janet Yellen's
first message from the Fed and George Osborne's new budget for Britain are three important
stories that made the news this week.
Friday, March 21
Thursday, March 20
Wednesday, March 19
19th Mar - Special: China
As requested, here's something on China.
What makes this chart so special: 2000-2008 export-led growth. When crisis hit, domestic credit was increased massively. Now there is no large export surplus, and debt is very high. No way out but to deleverage slowly. Also means no more fixed investments for a long time. Banks' bad loans at post-crisis high.
Tuesday, March 18
Monday, March 17
Sunday, March 16
Saturday, March 15
15th Mar - W/E: Weekly Support
Here are the links to
the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last
week's 'Support' here.
Friday, March 14
Thursday, March 13
Wednesday, March 12
Tuesday, March 11
Monday, March 10
Sunday, March 9
Saturday, March 8
8th Mar - W/E: Weekly Support
Here are the links to
the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last
week's 'Support' here.
Friday, March 7
Thursday, March 6
6th March - ECB Meeting
Wednesday, March 5
5th Mar - High yieldistä ??meli-nimimerkille
Jenkkien valtion kymppivuotinen korko on todennäköisesti pohjat nähnyt. Ehkä tuossa olisi vielä yksi legi jäljellä tulla alas, mutta tuskin mennään enää uusiin pohjiin.
Selvennyksenä, että high yield-paperin korkotuotto määräytyy kahdesta tekijästä - riskittömästä korosta (US valtionpaperin korko) ja riskilisästä. Kumpikin komponentti kertoo, että korko voi vielä vähän laskea, mutta pikemminkin nousuun kannattaa varautua.
HYG eli high yield-ETF ei ole liikkunut 2010 lähtien oikein mihinkään. Teknisesti saattaisi käydä jossain 98-tasoilla eli vähän ylempänä, n. 90-taso alhaalla päin toiseen suuntaan.
Tässä sen huomaa, mitä alhaiset korot tekevät: HYG ei ole 2010 jälkeen tuottanut mitään, mutta osakkeet lähtivät kirittämään kunnolla. HYG:llä ei vain ole ollut nousuvaraa, koska korot ovat niin alhaalla.
Tuesday, March 4
Monday, March 3
Sunday, March 2
Saturday, March 1
1st Mar - W/E: Weekly Support
Here are the links to
the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last
week's 'Support' here.
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