MARKETS
JPY crosses remain under cloud of uncertainty * NOK the weakest of the
currencies * EURUSD reaches trigger day
Global grid tracks
equities, bonds, currencies and commodities – Short Side of
Long
Recap : Some Charts from
Barclay’s Quarterly – Global
Macro Trading
Citi Warns Bond
Bulls "QE Is Dead... Long Live Normalization" – ZH
Time For a Check-up
on High Yield Bonds – A Wealth
of Common Sense
We just had the highest 5 year returns EVER for high yield bonds.
Citigroup’s View of How Bond Investors Are
Positioned – WSJ
Barclays Opts for a
Balanced Approach – WSJ
ECONOMICS
Global summary:
post-crisis recovery firming in 2014 – Berenberg
Presentation –
Outlook 2014: The sweet spot of the cycle – Berenberg
US: Underlying strength * China: Resilient * Japan: Abenomics fading * UK:
Strong recovery * Eurozone: Firmer growth * Germany: Powering on * France:
Reform laggard * Italy: Politics matter * Spain: Reform success * Portugal:
Turn-around
Behavioural economics
and public policy – FT
A grand unified theory of behavioral
economics? – Noahpinion
Putin’s hopes for
monetary miracles – Market
Monetarist
So why is the CBR tightening monetary policy when it so obviously is
likely to lead to a sharp slowdown in Russian growth? The most likely
explanation in my view is that policy makers – on strong pressures from
governments – are politically motivated by the fact that currency weakness is
seen as being politically embarrassing for local rulers
The Dismal Art – Democracy Journal
Economic forecasting has become much more sophisticated in the decades
since its invention. So why are we still so bad at it?
The Global Economy’s
Tale Risks – Project
Syndicate
Robert J. Shiller: Fluctuations in the world’s economies are largely due
to the stories we hear and tell about them. In Japan,
"Abenomics" has created a powerful narrative of positive change,
whereas the stories being told in other advanced countries are far scarier.
Role model or warning
example? Swedish experiences of taking indebtedness into account in monetary
policy decisions – BIS
Speech by Ms Karolina
Ekholm, Deputy Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank, to a meeting at the
Confederation of Swedish Enterprise, Stockholm, 14 March 2014.
Money creation in the
modern economy – Bank
of England
Why world markets are
in a state of flux in 2014 – TradingFloor
Steen Jakobsen: The world is locked at lower rates unless we initiate
and support innovation and technology use.
The truth is out:
money is just an IOU, and the banks are rolling in it – The
Guardian
The Bank of England's dose of honesty throws the theoretical basis for
austerity out the window
Blogs review: Wage
growth, spare capacity and rate hikes – Bruegel
With central banks more pessimistic about the degree of economic slack
and increasingly doubtful about the effectiveness of further growth in their
balance sheets, the conversation has centered upon the developments that could
trigger a first hike in interest rates. Together with the significant decrease
in unemployment, the first signs of a recovery in wages have generated a
growing sentiment that the tightening cycle might come earlier than what is
currently priced.
Rethinking the
Monetization Taboo – Project
Syndicate
Adair Turner: Now that the pace of the US Federal Reserve’s “tapering”
of its asset-purchase program has been debated to death, attention will soon
turn to prospects for interest-rate increases. But a far larger question looms:
How will central banks return balance sheets swollen by unconventional monetary
policy to “normal” levels?
Three Dangerous
Economic Ideas – Frances
Coppola / Forbes
Expansionary Fiscal Contraction * High Public Debt Causes Low Growth * The
Banking Sector Is Irrelevant In Macroeconomics
OTHER
The long and the
short of the George Soros strategy – Business
Spectator
The bankers behind
FDR and the Glass-Steagall Act – Fortune
Big bankers in the wake of the Great Depression were more inclined to
regulate the U.S. financial system
than today.
Ratings Agencies Told
Investors What They Wanted to Hear – View
/ BB