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Sunday, March 23

23rd Mar - W/E: Markets & Economics

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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FX Board for March 21, 2014: Candlesticks and shooting starsTradingFloor
JPY crosses remain under cloud of uncertainty * NOK the weakest of the currencies * EURUSD reaches trigger day

Global grid tracks equities, bonds, currencies and commoditiesShort Side of Long

Recap : Some Charts from Barclay’s QuarterlyGlobal Macro Trading

Citi Warns Bond Bulls "QE Is Dead... Long Live Normalization"ZH

Time For a Check-up on High Yield BondsA Wealth of Common Sense
We just had the highest 5 year returns EVER for high yield bonds.

Citigroup’s View of How Bond Investors Are PositionedWSJ

Barclays Opts for a Balanced ApproachWSJ

Global summary: post-crisis recovery firming in 2014Berenberg
Presentation – Outlook 2014: The sweet spot of the cycleBerenberg
US: Underlying strength * China: Resilient * Japan: Abenomics fading * UK: Strong recovery * Eurozone: Firmer growth * Germany: Powering on * France: Reform laggard * Italy: Politics matter * Spain: Reform success * Portugal: Turn-around

Behavioural economics and public policyFT
A grand unified theory of behavioral economics?Noahpinion

Putin’s hopes for monetary miraclesMarket Monetarist
So why is the CBR tightening monetary policy when it so obviously is likely to lead to a sharp slowdown in Russian growth? The most likely explanation in my view is that policy makers – on strong pressures from governments – are politically motivated by the fact that currency weakness is seen as being politically embarrassing for local rulers

The Dismal ArtDemocracy Journal
Economic forecasting has become much more sophisticated in the decades since its invention. So why are we still so bad at it?

The Global Economy’s Tale RisksProject Syndicate
Robert J. Shiller: Fluctuations in the world’s economies are largely due to the stories we hear and tell about them. In Japan, "Abenomics" has created a powerful narrative of positive change, whereas the stories being told in other advanced countries are far scarier.

Role model or warning example? Swedish experiences of taking indebtedness into account in monetary policy decisions BIS
Speech by Ms Karolina Ekholm, Deputy Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank, to a meeting at the Confederation of Swedish Enterprise, Stockholm, 14 March 2014.

Money creation in the modern economyBank of England

Why world markets are in a state of flux in 2014TradingFloor
Steen Jakobsen: The world is locked at lower rates unless we initiate and support innovation and technology use.

The truth is out: money is just an IOU, and the banks are rolling in itThe Guardian
The Bank of England's dose of honesty throws the theoretical basis for austerity out the window

Blogs review: Wage growth, spare capacity and rate hikesBruegel
With central banks more pessimistic about the degree of economic slack and increasingly doubtful about the effectiveness of further growth in their balance sheets, the conversation has centered upon the developments that could trigger a first hike in interest rates. Together with the significant decrease in unemployment, the first signs of a recovery in wages have generated a growing sentiment that the tightening cycle might come earlier than what is currently priced.

Rethinking the Monetization TabooProject Syndicate
Adair Turner: Now that the pace of the US Federal Reserve’s “tapering” of its asset-purchase program has been debated to death, attention will soon turn to prospects for interest-rate increases. But a far larger question looms: How will central banks return balance sheets swollen by unconventional monetary policy to “normal” levels?

Three Dangerous Economic IdeasFrances Coppola / Forbes
Expansionary Fiscal Contraction * High Public Debt Causes Low Growth * The Banking Sector Is Irrelevant In Macroeconomics

The long and the short of the George Soros strategyBusiness Spectator

The bankers behind FDR and the Glass-Steagall ActFortune
Big bankers in the wake of the Great Depression were more inclined to regulate the U.S. financial system than today.

Ratings Agencies Told Investors What They Wanted to HearView / BB