Google Analytics

Monday, March 24

24th Mar - European convergence?

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter

Danske Bank's EMU Poll: No lead shrinks slightlyDanske Bank
The European debt crisis has affected Danes’ attitude to joining the euro, with the No side now leading the Yes camp by 29 percentage points. Only one in six Danes would certainly vote Yes if a referendum were held today

Finland Seeks to Temper Austerity as Russia Weighs on GrowthBB
Finland’s government started talks to set spending limits for the next four years, seeking to temper austerity as turmoil in Russia adds to the northernmost euro member’s economic woes.

Banking union risks reigniting, rather than resolving the crisisEuropp / LSE
While European leaders have probably gone as far as they can over reaching a compromise, the measures agreed are still insufficient and could potentially exacerbate the risk of another Cyprus-style crisis taking place within the Eurozone.

The End of QE, According to the BOE PlaybookWSJ
The central assumption seems to be that central bank balance sheets will remain vastly expanded. It’s not how QE was sold in the first place, but is building substantial support now. Adair

The ECB should do QE via forex
The ECB should buy US treasury securities, lowering the foreign exchange value of the euro. That would be the best way to restore the export sector of the periphery countries.

ECB keeping eye on euro exchange rate: LiikanenReuters

ECB's Draghi: Irish Banks Face IssuesWSJ
European Central Bank President Sends Letter to Ireland's Fianna Fáil Party

Russia Facing Recession as Sanctions Likely to IntensifyBB
Sanctions imposed by the U.S. and the European Union are pushing Russia toward a recession as the intensity of their economic penalties increases after the annexation of Crimea earlier this month.

Billionaire Sought by U.S. Holds Key to Putin Gas CashBB
A detained billionaire who made a fortune as a middleman in Russia’s murky gas trade with Ukraine may hold the key for U.S. lawmakers seeking harsher sanctions against President Vladimir Putin’s inner circle.

Interactive chart: How Europe can replace Russian gasBruegel

Obama Demands Russia Leave G-8; June Summit Cancelled While Ukraine Deploys Army Along BordersZH

How Germans Really Feel About Russia's Annexation Of CrimeaZH

Post-FOMC FedspeakTim Duy’s Fed Speak
 The Fed is pushing back on the dots because they don't want quantitative guidance, and they forgot they were giving it.  Expectations that Yellen will push for a more dovish reaction function are being disappointed.  

Williams Acknowledges Forecast ChangeTim Duy’s Fed Watch
Those who expected Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen to push for a more dovish policy path continue to be dissapointed.

Chicago Fed: "Economic activity increased in February" – Calculated Risk
Chicago Fed: Economic Growth Increased in February – dshort

A Fed warning and a 'decisive' week for euro dollarTradingFloor
John J Hardy: A warning from the Fed and a 'decisive' week for the euro: a look at what we can expect this week in FX markets.

EURUSD needs to follow through lower to support bull narrativeTradingFloor
John J Hardy: We got the initial shock move lower in EURUSD last week in the wake of the FOMC meeting, but we need a follow through move lower very soon in EURUSD or the USD bulls risk a squeeze.

Why peak oil signals the world's end, or at least the one we knowTradingFloor
Steen Jakobsen: Resources by their very definition are not finite and oil is subject to the same rules as all other resources. In a guest post, Joel Guglietta of Singapore's OCTIS Asset Management asks, what kind of world will emerge from oil's exhaustion?

US Money Market Rates are Rising, Lending Dollar SupportMarc to Market

A site aggregating open-source quant finance articlesQuantPapers

Buy Sheep, Avoid Goats of Emerging MarketsView / BB
A. Gary Shilling: First, without exception, these economies depend primarily on exports for growth, which means the developed economies, especially the U.S., must be capable of buying their goods. And second, not all emerging markets are alike.

New Financial ForecastsNordea
12 March we released a new Economic Outlook with updated real-economic forecasts for 2014 and 2015. We also updated our longer-term financial forecasts for central banks, rates, FX and commodities. We have made no changes since then, but this slide set is intended to give a quick overview of our main financial forecasts.

IMM Positioning - Last week’s drivers: ECB and safe haven flowsDanske Bank

Did Hyman Minsky find the secret behind financial crashes?BBC
American economist Hyman Minsky, who died in 1996, grew up during the Great Depression, an event which shaped his views and set him on a crusade to explain how it happened and how a repeat could be prevented, writes Duncan Weldon.

Euro & talous 1/2014: Rahapolitiikka ja kansainvälinen talousSuomen Pankki

Markkinoiden ”varallisuustasausmekanismi”Roger Wessman

Europarlamentin puhemies Schulz: Perussuomalaiset vain puhuvatTE