Previously
on MoreLiver’s:
W/E: Weekly Support (updated!)
EUROPE
Danske Bank's EMU
Poll: No lead shrinks slightly – Danske
Bank
The European debt crisis has affected Danes’ attitude to joining the
euro, with the No side now leading the Yes camp by 29 percentage points. Only
one in six Danes would certainly vote Yes if a referendum were held today
Finland’s government started talks to set spending limits for the next
four years, seeking to temper austerity as turmoil in Russia adds to the
northernmost euro member’s economic woes.
Banking union risks
reigniting, rather than resolving the crisis – Europp
/ LSE
While European leaders have probably gone as far as they can over
reaching a compromise, the measures agreed are still insufficient and could
potentially exacerbate the risk of another Cyprus-style crisis taking place
within the Eurozone.
The End of QE,
According to the BOE Playbook – WSJ
The central assumption seems to be that central bank balance sheets will
remain vastly expanded. It’s not how QE was sold in the first place, but is
building substantial support now. Adair
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
The ECB should do QE
via forex intervention – voxeu.org
The ECB should buy US treasury securities, lowering the foreign exchange
value of the euro. That would be the best way to restore the export sector of
the periphery countries.
ECB keeping eye on
euro exchange rate: Liikanen – Reuters
ECB's Draghi: Irish
Banks Face Issues – WSJ
European Central Bank President Sends Letter to Ireland's Fianna Fáil Party
UKRAINE / RUSSIA
Sanctions imposed by the U.S. and the European Union are pushing Russia
toward a recession as the intensity of their economic penalties increases after
the annexation of Crimea earlier this month.
A detained billionaire who made a fortune as a middleman in Russia’s murky gas trade
with Ukraine may hold the key for
U.S. lawmakers seeking
harsher sanctions against President Vladimir Putin’s inner circle.
UNITED STATES
Post-FOMC Fedspeak – Tim
Duy’s Fed Speak
The Fed is
pushing back on the dots because they don't want quantitative guidance, and
they forgot they were giving it. Expectations that Yellen will push for a
more dovish reaction function are being disappointed.
Williams Acknowledges
Forecast Change – Tim
Duy’s Fed Watch
Those who expected
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen to push for a more dovish policy path
continue to be dissapointed.
Chicago Fed: "Economic
activity increased in February" – Calculated
Risk
Chicago Fed: Economic Growth
Increased in February – dshort
OTHER
A Fed warning and a
'decisive' week for euro dollar – TradingFloor
John J Hardy: A warning from the Fed and a 'decisive' week for the euro:
a look at what we can expect this week in FX markets.
EURUSD needs to
follow through lower to support bull narrative – TradingFloor
John J Hardy: We got the
initial shock move lower in EURUSD last week in the wake of the FOMC meeting,
but we need a follow through move lower very soon in EURUSD or the USD bulls
risk a squeeze.
Why peak oil signals
the world's end, or at least the one we know – TradingFloor
Steen Jakobsen: Resources by their very definition are not finite and
oil is subject to the same rules as all other resources. In a guest post, Joel
Guglietta of Singapore's OCTIS Asset
Management asks, what kind of world will emerge from oil's exhaustion?
US Money Market Rates
are Rising, Lending Dollar Support – Marc
to Market
A site aggregating
open-source quant finance articles – QuantPapers
Buy Sheep, Avoid
Goats of Emerging Markets – View
/ BB
A. Gary Shilling: First, without exception, these economies depend
primarily on exports for growth, which means the developed economies,
especially the U.S., must be capable of
buying their goods. And second, not all emerging markets are alike.
New Financial
Forecasts – Nordea
12 March we released a
new Economic Outlook with updated real-economic forecasts for 2014 and 2015. We
also updated our longer-term financial forecasts for central banks, rates, FX
and commodities. We have made no changes since then, but this slide set is
intended to give a quick overview of our main financial forecasts.
IMM Positioning -
Last week’s drivers: ECB and safe haven flows – Danske
Bank
Did Hyman Minsky find
the secret behind financial crashes? – BBC
American economist Hyman Minsky, who died in 1996, grew up during the
Great Depression, an event which shaped his views and set him on a crusade to
explain how it happened and how a repeat could be prevented, writes Duncan
Weldon.
FINNISH
Euro & talous 1/2014: Rahapolitiikka ja
kansainvälinen talous
– Suomen
Pankki
Markkinoiden
”varallisuustasausmekanismi” – Roger
Wessman
Europarlamentin puhemies Schulz:
Perussuomalaiset vain puhuvat – TE