W/E: Weekly Support (updated)
EUROPE
It is time to stand
up for the European Union – The
A-List / FT
George Soros: Europe is at a crossroads. It faces two crucial
decisions: one is the future of the eurozone; the other is Britain’s role in Europe. The eurozone needs
to become more integrated. It needs a common fiscal budget policy, a banking
union and a more level economic playing field.
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
ECB to ease in April
as inflation will continue downwards – Danske
Bank
Final euro inflation is likely to be revised down to 0.7% from a flash
estimate of 0.8%...Core inflation is expected to decline to 0.5% y/y in March
2013…We expect a 0.5% print of euro inflation to lead to immediate easing from
the ECB
Why the ECB Should Buy American – Project
Syndicate
Jeffrey Frankel: ECB needs to ease monetary policy further. And, with
purchases of member governments' bonds a risky – and possibly illegal –
proposition, loading up on US Treasuries would be the best way to go about it.
Economic flaws in the
German court decision – voxeuorg
Paul De Grauwe: The German constitutional court declared the OMT program
to against EU law. This column argues that the economic logic used by the
German judges was flawed – based on economic theories that have been rejected
empirically.
Bank restructuring
and the economic recovery – ECB
Speech by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, at the presentation
ceremony of the Schumpeter Award, Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Vienna, 13 March 2014
Draghi Praises
European Banks That Are Cleaning Up Their Books – NYT
Meanwhile, The
Euro... – ZH
It would appear that 1.39 EURUSD is the line in the sand for Mario
Draghi. As pressures build on European competitiveness, Draghi appears to have
finally got sick of China buying EURs to
diversify its FX reserves away from USDs.
Monthly Bulletin,
March 2014 – ECB
Statistics Pocket
Book, March 2014 – ECB
ECB Staff
macroeconomic projections for the euro area – ECB
UKRAINE / RUSSIA
Why Ukraine Matters More Than You Think – ZH
Citi’s Matt King: As we see it, each additional headline, and each
downward revision to EM growth prospects, takes us closer to the point where
investors undertake a wholesale reevaluation of the risk-reward of EM assets
for their portfolios – just as has already happened with gold, and is happening
with commodities more broadly.
Coming Together and
Falling Apart – Project
Syndicate
Michael J. Boskin: An EU Association Agreement could be a huge boon to
the Ukrainian economy. But free-trade agreements presuppose the existence of
established political borders, and Ukraine is not the only
country that might come apart.
Factbox: Western
sanctions against Russia – Reuters
CRISIS COUNTRIES
The Five Star Movement and Forza Italia may well decide to take a more
decisively anti-euro stance. Of course, this would be risky, which could scare
off more potential supporters than it attracts. But as the mood vis-à-vis the
union darkens, it is a gamble which may well pay off.
Periphery business
cycle monitor – Danske
Bank
Euro area periphery data continues its improvement and most sovereign
yields are now touching historical lows (10Y).
UNITED STATES
The market does not
expect overshooting – The
Economist
Futures markets anticipate the first rate hike in the fall of 2015. Rate
are then set to rise about one percentage point per year. This locks in a solid
amount of “overshoot” already.
Retail Sales increased 0.3% in February – Calculated
Risk
February Retail Sales Up 0.3% But from Significant Downward Revisions – dshort
U.S. retail sales rebound
from winter chill, jobless claims fall – Reuters
OTHER
In summary, the emerging markets most vulnerable to a slowdown in
Chinese fixed asset investment are several Latin American economies, Russia and South Africa. In contrast, Hungary, the Philippines, Poland and Mexico seem fairly well
positioned.
Weak data suggests GDP growth could drop below government’s 7.5% growth
target as soon as Q1
Economists React:
China’s Slowdown Confirmed, but no Hard Landing – WSJ
Country Trading Range
Screen
– Bespoke
Depending on what drives your macro view of the weakness (continued Fed
tapering, geopolitical instability in Eastern Europe, a slowdown in China, to name a few),
there are either great bargains available or serious risks for international
investors.
Commodities Update:
The copper corrosion continues – Danske
Bank
EMEA Weekly: Week 12 – Danske
Bank
Rouble rates jump on fears of possible capital controls * Political
tensions in Turkey
back in the spotlight
Traders Beat Market
Indexes Borrowing Tools From Sports – BB
Popular Memes That
Are Partially or Completely BS – The
Fat Pitch
FINNISH
Professori Ylelle: Suomen ongelma on huono
hallinto – Verkkouutiset
Julkisjohtamisen
professorin mukaan Suomen korruptioon liittyvät ongelmat ovat huono hallinto,
maan tapa ja hyvä veli -verkostot, kertoo Yle Uutiset.
"Suomen haettava Nato-jäsenyyttä, jos
Ruotsi hakee" –
Verkkouutiset
"Ruotsissa julkisen talouden alijäämä on
yhtä suuri kuin Suomessa - meillä on kriisi, siellä taas ei" – TE
Ilmarista johtavan Jaakko Kianderin mielestä
erot siinä, miten Yhdysvallat ja Eurooppa ovat viime vuosina toteuttaneet
talouspolitiikkaansa, näkyvät selvästi myös siinä, miten ne ovat
talouskriiseistään toipuneet.
Puutaheinää – Hannu
Visti
Teollisuuden
liikevaihto supistui Q42013 3,5% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Rakennusyritysten
liikevaihto väheni Q42013 1,5% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Palvelualojen
liikevaihto kasvoi Q42013 0,3% YoY – Tilastokeskus