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Monday, March 3

3rd Mar - Ukraine & Feb PMIs

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The ECB is irrelevant and the Euro is a failurePieria
Frances Coppola: The Euro is a failed experiment. We should not waste any more effort trying to make it work. It is time to consign it to the dust of history.

Two myths about the Ukrainian conflictSober Look

Bank Rossii unexpectedly hikes rates to save RUBDanske Bank

Translation of the G8 G7 Statement on UkraineMacro Man

Putin builds up armour near Crimea, Russian assets plummetReuters

EU pushes mediation rather than sanctions against RussiaReuters

Ukraine Tells Russia Invasion Means War as Putin Makes PlansBusinessweek
Ukraine told Russia that a military invasion would be an act of war following a vote by lawmakers in Moscow to give President Vladimir Putin the right to send troops after pro-Russian forces seized control of Crimea.

Putin Grab for Crimea Shows Trail of Warning Signs West IgnoredBB
Putin’s been cautioning the U.S. and other North Atlantic Treaty Organization states for at least six years not to impede Russian interests in Ukraine, particularly in the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea, home to its largest overseas naval base.

Putin Declares WarWSJ
Will Obama and Europe let him get away with carving up Ukraine?

The reverse Berlin Wall? Russia, Ukraine and the marketsSteen Jakobsen / TradingFloor
Russia is in a corner — politically, economically and strategically and unless a real economic reform takes hold, the country will plunge into recession this year. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian crisis could have devastating consequences for us all.

Pressure Rising as Obama Works to Rein In RussiaNYT
Merkel of Germany told Mr. Obama by telephone on Sunday that after speaking with Mr. Putin she was not sure he was in touch with reality, people briefed on the call said. “In another world,” she said.

Markets Viewpoint: Crimea can jolt markets but not lastingNordea
The situation in Ukraine continues to escalate. The economic situation in Ukraine remains dire. Some similarities to the Russo-Georgian war in 2008. We expect markets to be jittery: yields on Bunds and Treasuries to drop, equities weighed down, oil and gold to go up and a strengthening of the USD across the board. However, we do not expect the current crisis to escalate to an all-out-war and markets will revert to look at fundamentals within days or weeks.

Investors Desert Russian StocksWSJ

Roundup of Views on Ukraine Crisis EscalationWSJ

Emerging markets upside surprise offsets G10 disappointmentTradingFloor
Mads Koefoed: Negative emerging market sentiment has not been hard to locate recently, which has translated to low expectations for economic data. But those expectations have so far been more than matched by actual data releases, surprising to the upside.

PMI signals modest deterioration of business conditions in February – Markit
China Factory Index Decline Adds to Li Growth Challenges – BB
Slumps To 8-Month Low, Services PMI To 3-Month High – ZH
China's services, manufacturing sectors diverge in February – Reuters


Emerging Market Banking Crises Are NextJames Gruber
Chinese whispers * The great economic rebalancing * More EM drama to come * Winners and losers

Will emerging markets come back?mpettis
Emerging markets may well rebound strongly in the coming months, but any rebound will face the same ugly arithmetic. Ordinary households in too many countries have seen their share of total GDP plunge. Until it rebounds, the global imbalances will only remain in place, and without a global New Deal, the only alternative to weak demand will be soaring debt. Add to this continued political uncertainty, not just in the developing world but also in peripheral Europe, and it is clear that we should expect developing country woes only to get worse over the next two to three years.

FX: degrees of freedomNordea

Kruunun merkitys Ruotsin menestykselleRoger Wessman
Finlands sak är svårLars Calmfors / DN
I vanliga fall har valet av valutasystem ingen större betydelse, där­emot i kritiska lägen. Finland hade haft lättare att möta sin strukturkris om man inte gått över till euron.

Tarkemmat BKT-luvut vähemmän huolestuttaviaRoger Wessman

Verokertymä kasvoi vuonna 2013 – Tilastokeskus
Julkisen talouden alijäämä 2%, velka 56,9% vs BKT vuonna 2013 – Tilastokeskus
BKT -0,3% qoq, -0,6 yoy – Tilastokeskus
Bruttokansantuote 2013 supistui 1,4%  Tilastokeskus
Suomen julkinen alijäämä ja velka alle EU:n viitearvojen – Verkkouutiset

NATO-ovi kolahti kiinni – Jyrki J.J. Kasvi / US
Mitä meidän tulee oppia Venäjän aggressiosta Ukrainaa kohtaan – Professorin ajatuksia