W/E: Weekly Support (updated)
EUROPE
While voters might
blame the EU for policy failures, it is extremely difficult for them to
effectively hold it to account – Europp
/ LSE
BANKING UNION
Banking — union or
disunion – Reuters
European governments disagree not only amongst themselves on the details
but also with the European Parliament, which must give its blessing before the
project can become law. Negotiations are set to stretch into Wednesday. If
agreement is not reached this week the parliament will run out of time before
May elections and then the project will face months of further delay.
Should the Eurozone
really bank on past successes? – Merkelnomics
Two factors argue
against a last-minute deal: the European Parliament felt side-lined several
times during the euro crisis and might want to make the SRM a litmus test of
its increased powers. Moreover, with or without SRM, any costs of possible bank
rescues this year as the result of the ECB’s stress tests and asset quality
review will have to be carried by national players anyway
The German veto on EU
banking regulation – FT
If all goes to plan, Berlin is securing
something rare and coveted in Brussels: the effective power
to block future EU banking regulation… Just
imagine what this would mean in practice if and when the EU should come to
revise its rules on bank failure sometime in the future.
Press release ECB
publishes manual for asset quality review – ECB
Asset quality review
- Phase 2 Manual – ECB
The ECB’s stress
tests: reaching Level 3 – FT
The ECB today published details of the second phase of its AQR, which
will see national regulators, under the scrutiny of the ECB, scour the balance
sheets of the region’s 128 biggest lenders to see what’s lurking in the darkest
parts of their loan books.
CRISIS COUNTRIES
A needle in a
haystack: key terms in official Troika documents – Bruegel
An empirical account of evolving Troika conditionality based on the
counting of certain key terms in more than 4000 pages of official financial
assistance documents.
There is a common perception that Russia's move on Crimea shows its
strength. A closer examination suggests
it is more complicated that it may seem.
Mitchell A. Orenstein: No successful Eastern European government has
been asked to impose a dramatic austerity and reform program prior to
democratic elections. If the IMF insists that the interim Ukrainian government
impose austerity immediately, the country will be forced to break uncertain new
ground at a particularly dangerous time.
Blogs review: Wild
Wild East – Bruegel
David C. Saha: Recent events in Ukraine have been and
continue to be of great importance on a geopolitical scale. This review focuses
on the economic dimension of the issue. Probably cut off from further Russian
support, Ukraine faces urgent
economic problems, particularly with regard to its international financial
obligations and reviving its economy through reforms long overdue.
UNITED STATES
Bubble watch: growth
is good – FT
Morgan Stanley’s US quant team has an
eye on the market cauldron, and the simmering has a late nineties feel to it
OTHER
Commodities: Global
food prices surge – Danske
Bank
Prices have spiked 15% since the beginning of the year. An unlucky
combination of extreme weather events, geopolitical worries and other supply
disruptions have been the main factors in play. The period of very stable
global food prices thus seems to be over for now
Great Graphic:
Emerging Markets' External Hard Currency Debt – Marc
to Market
If You Never Cash In
Then What's The Point of Playing. Polemic's Farewell – Macro
Man
FINNISH
Yritysten luotonkysynnän kääntyminen kohti
kasvua ennakoi taantuman päättymistä – Piksu
Italialaisten luottamus unioniin romahtanut –
kolmannes lähtisi eurosta – Verkkouutiset
Täti tiukka ja setä löysä – Verkkouutiset