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Monday, March 17

17th Mar - Nobody's interesting in Crimea anymore




Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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EUROPE
Swedish central bank not targeting its goalLars Svensson

Krone Intervention Seen Imminent as Limits TestedBB

  EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
ECB Data Demands Called Excessive by Banks Facing Asset ReviewBB
Euro-area banks urged the ECB to reduce the information they have to provide as part of a review of their balance sheets because they say the demands are excessive.

QE Not the Only Option for ECB on Inflation WSJ
The solution is a thorough cleanup of the banking system of the sort that the ECB is currently orchestrating.

Russia, China…and Other Forces Beyond the ECB’s Control WSJ

These Six European Countries Are In Outright Deflation As Eurozone Inflation Slides To Four Year LowsZH

  UKRAINE / RUSSIA
West Warns Russia Not to Annex Crimea After ReferendumBB
The U.S. and the European Union warned Russia not to annex Crimea after a referendum in the southern Ukrainian region, setting the stage for sanctions on Russia in the worst diplomatic standoff since the Cold War.

Russia Facing Escalating Sanctions as EU Foreign Ministers MeetBB
EU foreign ministers due to meet in Brussels today are set to impose travel bans and asset freezes on some Russian officials as Putin’s government prepares to annex Crimea after today’s referendum on secession from Ukraine.

EU ponders Russia sanctions over Crimea voteBBC
EU foreign ministers are due to discuss further sanctions against Russia after a Moscow-backed referendum in Crimea backed a split from Ukraine.

In Putin’s Russia, risk prices youFT
There was a genuine rehabilitation of Russia as a place to get money in, and as importantly, out, in recent years. It makes it all very ironic now.

Putin Is No Mad Man to Russians as Power Play Trumps EconomyBB
Putin’s approval rating, bolstered after Russia hosted its first Winter Olympics last month, reached a three-year high as he poured troops into Crimea amid the overthrow of the Kremlin-backed government in Kiev.

White House Fact Sheet on New Ukraine-Related SanctionsWSJ
Obama Issues Executive Order Freezing Assets Of Seven Putin Aides – ZH
Russian Stocks, Ruble Respond To Obama's Sanctions By Extending Gains – ZH
Russian Sanctioned By White House Responds On Twitter To "Comrade Obama" – ZH

EU Foreign Affairs Council conclusions on UkraineConsilium

Roundup: Crimea Names Ruble Currency; Applies To Join RussiaZH

After Crimea: Next MovesMarc to Market

Crimea referendum – our experts reactEuropp / LSE

Russia’s $160 Billion Stick Hinders Crimean SanctionsBB
As U.S. and European officials began imposing sanctions in their face-off with Russia over Ukraine, Vladimir Putin’s $160 billion in oil and natural gas exports may be his most potent weapon to limit punitive measures.

UNITED STATES
Addressing growing student debtEconbrowser
Mortgage and credit card debt today are lower than they were before the Great Recession. But the dollar value of outstanding student loans has surged, growing from 4% of GDP in 2007 to over 7% today.

  MACRO NUMBERS
Homebuilder Confidence Misses Expectations, Plunges To 10-Month Lows – ZH
NAHB: Builder Confidence increased slightly in March to 47 – Calculated Risk

Fed: Industrial Production increased 0.6% in February – Calculated Risk
U.S. factories flex muscle after severe winter chill – Reuters
Industrial Production Rebounds In February, But… - Capital Spectator

ASIA
China: PBoC widens daily trading band to +/-2% - Danske Bank
PBOC Widens Trading Bans – ZH
Yuan Tumbles to 11-Month Low as Band Widening Spurs Volatility – BB
China's yuan dips in widened band, but scope for big swings seen limited – Reuters

OTHER
Global FX Strategy: EURUSD will fall.. If US fallsNordea
Will the EURUSD fall, when Fed eventually starts its hiking regime? Not necessarily. Find our thougths on that, as well as updated stories on GBP, CHF, SEK and NOK in this edition of our monthly Global FX Strategy.

FX Board for March 17, 2014: St Patrick’s snoozefestTradingFloor
FOMC statement expected to surprise few * Bounce in JPY crosses provides better entry levels for shorts * EURAUD posts big bearish pattern reversal

European FI Strategy: Not another crisisNordea
Flight-to-quality flows have pushed bond yields lower again, and risks remain tilted towards lower yields, as tensions between Russia and the EU/US over Ukraine / Crimea could easily escalate. On the central bank front, the ECB is struggling with a strong currency.

Bond Update: Ukraine tensions fade for nowTradingFloor
The Crimea situation is unresolved but tensions seem lower for now. The market is starting to focus on the FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Services expand around the world — supports stronger growth view TradingFloor
Our global PMI services tracker eased slightly in February, but continues to point to robust growth. Combined with the development in global manufacturing, stronger global growth this year still looks likely.

Emerging Markets Briefer - March 2014Danske Bank
Geopolitics and Chinese slowdown – a terrible cocktail

It’s FOMC week – who cares?TradingFloor
Weather likely to dominate FOMC agenda * CNY weakens after PBoC widens CNY trading band * Ukraine crisis continues to cast shadow over markets

FINNISH
Viikkokatsaus: Katseet FediinNordea
Tällä viikolla: Fed vähentää ostojaan, euroalueen inflaatio hidastuu? Mennyttä: Sää painoi edelleen jenkkilukuja, Suomen teollisuudesta heikkoja lukuja

  UKRAINA / VENÄJÄ
Euroopan keskustaoikeisto: Venäjä ulos Etyjistä ja G8:staVerkkouutiset
Euroopan parlamentin suurin poliittinen ryhmä keskustaoikeiston EPP vaatii Venäjälle välittömiä sanktiota sen toimista Krimillä.

Asiantuntija: Pakotteet supistaisivat vientiämme Verkkouutiset
Venäjä-asiantuntija Pekka Sutela sanoo Kauppalehden haastattelussa, että Venäjän vastapakotteet supistaisivat Suomen vientiä kohtalaisen reipasta vauhtia.

"Euroopalla ei ole kanttia asettaa talouspakotteita"TalSa
Muun muassa suuret investointipankit arvioivat, että Euroopalla ei todennäköisesti ole kanttia asettaa Venäjälle talouspakotteita, koska maan energiavienti Eurooppaan on niin mittavaa.

Nordea: EU:n sanktiot jäävät vaatimattomiksiVerkkouutiset
Nordean mukaan EU:n sanktiot jäävät edelleen vaatimattomiksi, eivätkä länsimaat edelleenkään löydä välineitä pysäyttää Vladimir Putinia.

Sama kaiku on askeltenTakkirauta
Venäjä on aivan oikeasti uhka koko maailman rauhalle.

  TALOUSPOLITIIKKA
EK jyrähti: Näpertely ja pehmokeinot eivät yksinkertaisesti riitäVerkkouutiset

Vasemmisto ampuu itseään nilkkaanLepomäki / Verkkouutiset
Vasemmiston tavoite eurovaaleissa on, että EKP:n rahapolitiikka suuntautuisi hintavakauden sijaan "työllisyyteen ja kasvuun".

Automaattinen menoleikkuri tarpeenNordea
Hallitus lyö lukkoon kehysriihessä joukon veronkiristyksiä ja menoleikkauksia sekä lupaa pyhästi kiihdyttää lupaamiaan rakenneuudistuksia. Lopputuloksesta tulee riittämätön. Hallituksen itselleen tekemät tavoitteet estävät näkemästä sen, mikä on hyväksi koko Suomelle pitkällä aikavälillä.

Euroalueen yksityisen sektorin lainakanta supistumassa – tervetuloa deflaatioTyhmyri