Previously
on MoreLiver’s:
W/E: Weekly Support (updated)
EUROPE
Swedish central bank
not targeting its goal – Lars
Svensson
Krone Intervention
Seen Imminent as Limits Tested – BB
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
ECB Data Demands
Called Excessive by Banks Facing Asset Review – BB
Euro-area banks urged the ECB to reduce the
information they have to provide as part of a review of their balance sheets
because they say the demands are excessive.
QE Not the Only
Option for ECB on Inflation – WSJ
The solution is a thorough cleanup of the banking system of the sort
that the ECB is currently orchestrating.
These Six European
Countries Are In Outright Deflation As Eurozone Inflation Slides To Four Year
Lows
– ZH
UKRAINE / RUSSIA
The U.S. and the European
Union warned Russia not to annex Crimea after a referendum
in the southern Ukrainian region, setting the stage for sanctions on Russia in the worst
diplomatic standoff since the Cold War.
EU foreign ministers due to meet in Brussels today are set to impose
travel bans and asset freezes on some Russian officials as Putin’s government
prepares to annex Crimea after today’s referendum on secession from Ukraine.
EU foreign ministers
are due to discuss further sanctions against Russia after a Moscow-backed referendum in Crimea backed a split from Ukraine.
There was a genuine rehabilitation of Russia as a place to get
money in, and as importantly, out, in recent years. It makes it all very ironic
now.
Putin Is No Mad Man
to Russians as Power Play Trumps Economy – BB
Putin’s approval rating, bolstered after Russia hosted its first
Winter Olympics last month, reached a three-year high as he poured troops into Crimea amid the overthrow
of the Kremlin-backed government in Kiev.
White House Fact
Sheet on New Ukraine-Related Sanctions – WSJ
Obama Issues Executive Order Freezing Assets Of Seven Putin Aides – ZH
Russian Stocks, Ruble Respond To Obama's Sanctions By Extending Gains – ZH
Russian Sanctioned By White House Responds On Twitter To "Comrade
Obama" – ZH
Roundup: Crimea Names
Ruble Currency; Applies To Join Russia – ZH
After Crimea: Next
Moves
– Marc
to Market
As U.S. and European
officials began imposing sanctions in their face-off with Russia over Ukraine, Vladimir Putin’s
$160 billion in oil and natural gas exports may be his most potent weapon to
limit punitive measures.
UNITED STATES
Addressing growing
student debt – Econbrowser
Mortgage and credit card debt today are lower than they were before the
Great Recession. But the dollar value of outstanding student loans has surged,
growing from 4% of GDP in 2007 to over 7% today.
MACRO NUMBERS
Homebuilder Confidence Misses Expectations, Plunges To 10-Month Lows – ZH
NAHB: Builder Confidence increased slightly in March to 47 – Calculated
Risk
Fed: Industrial Production increased 0.6% in February – Calculated
Risk
U.S. factories flex
muscle after severe winter chill – Reuters
Industrial Production Rebounds In February, But… - Capital
Spectator
ASIA
China: PBoC widens daily
trading band to +/-2% - Danske
Bank
PBOC Widens Trading Bans – ZH
Yuan Tumbles to 11-Month Low as Band Widening Spurs Volatility – BB
China's yuan dips in
widened band, but scope for big swings seen limited – Reuters
OTHER
Will the EURUSD fall, when Fed eventually starts its hiking regime? Not
necessarily. Find our thougths on that, as well as updated stories on GBP, CHF,
SEK and NOK in this edition of our monthly Global FX Strategy.
FOMC statement expected to surprise few * Bounce in JPY crosses provides
better entry levels for shorts * EURAUD posts big bearish pattern reversal
European FI Strategy:
Not another crisis – Nordea
Flight-to-quality flows have pushed bond yields lower again, and risks
remain tilted towards lower yields, as tensions between Russia and the EU/US over Ukraine / Crimea could easily
escalate. On the central bank front, the ECB is struggling with a strong
currency.
The Crimea situation is unresolved but tensions seem lower for
now. The market is starting to focus on the FOMC meeting on Tuesday and
Wednesday.
Services expand
around the world — supports stronger growth view – TradingFloor
Our global PMI services tracker eased slightly in February, but
continues to point to robust growth. Combined with the development in global
manufacturing, stronger global growth this year still looks likely.
Emerging Markets
Briefer - March 2014 – Danske
Bank
Geopolitics and Chinese slowdown – a terrible cocktail
It’s FOMC week – who
cares?
– TradingFloor
Weather likely to dominate FOMC agenda * CNY weakens after PBoC widens
CNY trading band * Ukraine crisis continues to
cast shadow over markets
FINNISH
Viikkokatsaus: Katseet Fediin – Nordea
Tällä
viikolla: Fed vähentää ostojaan, euroalueen inflaatio hidastuu? Mennyttä: Sää
painoi edelleen jenkkilukuja, Suomen teollisuudesta heikkoja lukuja
UKRAINA
/ VENÄJÄ
Euroopan keskustaoikeisto: Venäjä ulos
Etyjistä ja G8:sta –
Verkkouutiset
Euroopan
parlamentin suurin poliittinen ryhmä keskustaoikeiston EPP vaatii Venäjälle
välittömiä sanktiota sen toimista Krimillä.
Asiantuntija: Pakotteet supistaisivat
vientiämme – Verkkouutiset
Venäjä-asiantuntija
Pekka Sutela sanoo Kauppalehden haastattelussa, että Venäjän vastapakotteet
supistaisivat Suomen vientiä kohtalaisen reipasta vauhtia.
"Euroopalla ei ole kanttia asettaa
talouspakotteita"
– TalSa
Muun muassa suuret investointipankit
arvioivat, että Euroopalla ei todennäköisesti ole kanttia asettaa Venäjälle
talouspakotteita, koska maan energiavienti Eurooppaan on niin mittavaa.
Nordea: EU:n sanktiot jäävät vaatimattomiksi – Verkkouutiset
Nordean
mukaan EU:n sanktiot jäävät edelleen vaatimattomiksi, eivätkä länsimaat
edelleenkään löydä välineitä pysäyttää Vladimir Putinia.
Sama kaiku on askelten – Takkirauta
Venäjä on
aivan oikeasti uhka koko maailman rauhalle.
TALOUSPOLITIIKKA
EK jyrähti: Näpertely ja pehmokeinot eivät
yksinkertaisesti riitä
– Verkkouutiset
Vasemmisto ampuu itseään nilkkaan – Lepomäki /
Verkkouutiset
Vasemmiston
tavoite eurovaaleissa on, että EKP:n rahapolitiikka suuntautuisi hintavakauden
sijaan "työllisyyteen ja kasvuun".
Automaattinen menoleikkuri tarpeen – Nordea
Hallitus lyö
lukkoon kehysriihessä joukon veronkiristyksiä ja menoleikkauksia sekä lupaa
pyhästi kiihdyttää lupaamiaan rakenneuudistuksia. Lopputuloksesta tulee
riittämätön. Hallituksen itselleen tekemät tavoitteet estävät näkemästä sen,
mikä on hyväksi koko Suomelle pitkällä aikavälillä.
Euroalueen yksityisen sektorin lainakanta
supistumassa – tervetuloa deflaatio – Tyhmyri