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Sunday, March 23

23rd Mar - Random Charts & Comments

Random charts with short comments

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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The spread between the US five-year and two-year Treasuries is nearing the high end of the range. In the past, around the time the high end is reached, the Fed starts to tighten interest rate policy, and at the lower end the Fed starts to ease policy. Exception to this rule was the post-crisis high, but that was truly exceptional moment. You can access the 10y-3m and 10y-2y directly from on the FRED, but those two are somewhat tainted due to the Fed's asset purchases in the long end. I thus like the 5y-2y more.

A joke - remember the "comparisons to 1929 are scary"-chart?

Most of the contrarian suggestions make sense.

Is the European recovery a false promise, and is DAX presenting a classic head&shoulders?

People like the EU lot less than is commonly understood. Surprisingly, the Swedes are very skeptical, even though they are not even in the euro.

European confidence still rising. We get the March numbers next Friday.

Something wrong with the data, have not double-checked it. Main point: EURUSD strength could start hurting the current account surplus sooner or later.

Nice inflation dashboard on ECB's website.

From the FOMC material

Eurocrisis not over, as bad loans continue rising in Italy

This is probably the "chart of the month".

Oh, Finland, I'm so sorry.

Note how the EURUSD tends to bounce between the ECB- and FED-meeting days. If the pattern holds, the EURUSD will remain bearish until April-4 ECB meeting, and could be a good long before the meeting.

US surprise index at levels where we should start seeing positive surprises. Either expectations have become lowered enough, or the data turns positive.

Note the disconnect between euro area and UK / US.

Eurocrisis not over in Spain, either.