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Sunday, March 9

9th Mar - W/E: Linkfest

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Brussels blog round up 1 - 7 MarchEuropp / LSE
Ukraine, EPP congress, and should the EU play a role in Venezuela?

The sharp but effectual remedymainly macro
If overall fiscal policy was being determined in Brussels rather than by individual national governments, would it be so very different today? I suspect we would be seeing similar overall austerity as the ‘Eurozone government’ obsessed with reducing debt. Given their relative competitive positions, that would mean ‘stability’ in parts of the Eurozone and severe recessions elsewhere, much as we have now.

EPP in Dublin: Klitschko, Tymoshenko and…Bono?FT

The Spitzenkandidats: EU Parliament Elections Become ExplosiveSpiegel
With European Parliament elections scheduled for May, the European Commission is set to get a new president. Some member states have growing concerns about the frontrunners -- and now tempers are getting heated.

Bank Oversight: Europe Stressed by Approaching Stress TestsSpiegel
Thousands of ECB auditors have begun examining the balance sheets of euro-zone banks. Stress tests are coming soon. With the European Central Bank in charge of oversight, many hope the EU's financial industry will return to health. But there are risks.

Currency Positioning and Technical Outlook: Better Dollar Tone ComingMarc to Market
If the past week was about the lack of escalation in both Russia/Ukraine and China, coupled with the ECB holding pat, next week may see the pendulum swing back a bit.

The ECB has been too tight for yearsThomas Raffinot
Thomas Raffinot on the eurozone disasterThe Money Illusion

Transatlantic Economic Sanctions Against RussiaPIIE
. Sending a signal that both US and EU leaders are seriously considering such measures under dire contingencies could deter possible escalation of Russian military engagement in Ukraine. As such, it would complement current diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis.

Ruble hits new lows as Bank of Russia focuses on more "pressing" issuesSober Look

Markets already see a Putin winReuters
An analogy for this Ukraine confrontation is the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. But this time Russia wins.

To blunt Russia, time for American natural gas diplomacyReuters
Russian’s intervention in Crimea and looming threats against eastern Ukraine underscore Europe’s energy vulnerability.

Bondholders will have to pay for Ukraine’s resetReuters
The country’s creditors may face either a soft debt rescheduling or more radical haircuts. The risks of austerity, devaluation and continued political uncertainty all point to the latter.

Crisis in Ukraine: How It Gathered, Where It's HeadedBB

Crimea Base Incident Shows Danger of Ukraine EscalationBB
Gunmen fired warning shots as international observers tried to enter Crimea for a third day and a Ukrainian border patrol plane came under fire that didn’t cause injuries.

Crimean Crisis All Eyes on MerkelSpiegel
As the conflict with Russia over Crimea intensifies, Germany is playing a central role in communications with Russian President Vladimir Putin. But the international community has doubts that Chancellor Angela Merkel can pull it off.

Fed’s Lockhart: New Interest-Rate Guidance Coming SoonWSJ

Tapering is Sooo 2013Tim Duy’s Fed Watch
Barring the outlier outcomes of either recession or explosive growth, tapering is on autopilot. Rate guidance is now qualitative and actual policy is discretionary. Incoming data is interesting for what it says about the timing of the first rate hike.  So far, though, it is not telling us much given the Fed's belief that weak data is largely weather related.  The degree to which asset bubbles are a concern varies greatly accross Fed officials but the general consensus is that such concerns are of second or third order magnitude compared to missing on both sides of the dual mandate.

Unemployment, Wages, Inflation, and Fed PolicyTim Duy’s Fed Watch
If the Fed follows historical behavior, they will begin tightening before wages rise and in an environment of low inflation such that inflation remains stable even as unemployment falls.  In other words, in recent history that have not exhibited a tendency to overshoot.  Explicit overshooting would represent a very significant shift in the Fed's modus operandi.

Upward Grind in Labor Markets Continues Tim Duy’s Fed Watch
The report has no implications for tapering because tapering is on a preset course.  This one report by itself also says little about the first rate increase - still mid to late 2015.  But watch the wage growth numbers and listen to the reaction of Fed officials.  In my opinion, this is a key factor in the timing of rate policy. Traditionally, they start tightening prior or near to an acceleration in wages.

The Secret History of the Financial CrisisProject Syndicate
Harold James: Though official history portrayed the world's major central banks as embracing coordinated action to rescue the global financial system from disaster, the reality is that the Fed played the leading role. In fact, the Fed has effectively emerged from the crisis as the world’s central bank, while the IMF has been left on the sidelines.

Fed Missed Crisis Due To Narrow Mindset, Says StudyWSJ
A rare sociological analysis of Federal Reserve policy argues top central bank officials missed the oncoming crisis because they failed to make the connection between housing, the banking industry and the economy.

China's credit markets under pressure – Sober Look
Copper Posts Biggest Decline Since 2011 on China Demand Concern – BB
China Heralding $1.5 Trillion Emerging Debt Wall: Credit Markets – BB
China Gets First Onshore Bond Default as Chaori Misses Payment – BB
Maybe China’s a Bigger Worry than the Fed – WSJ
Chinese Exports Collapse Leading To 2nd Largest Trade Deficit On Record – ZH
Search for China’s “Bear Stearns moment” is flawed – Reuters
Morgan Stanley: Developed World Could be Hit Hard if EM Stumbles – WSJ

Press release: Quarterly Review: Emerging economies respond to market pressure BIS
BIS Quarterly Review, March 2014 BIS

How macro answered its criticsnoahpinion
Jälkeenjääneet maahanmuuttajalapsetProfessorin ajatuksia
Iltalehti uutisoi lyhyesti, että maahanmuuttajataustaisten ja kantaväestöön kuuluvien lasten välinen ero Pisa-tutkimuksissa on Suomessa suurempi kuin missään muussa maassa

Behind the $100 Billion Commodity Empire That Few KnowBB
Dunand, 52, and Jaeggi, 53, are executing a plan to propel Geneva-based Mercuria Energy Group Ltd. nearer to the top independent traders, Glencore Xstrata Plc, Trafigura Beheer BV and Vitol Group.

Is the value premium a liquidity premium?JP Konig
Methods to Improve DecisionsCredit Suisse
Five Common Mistakes and How to Address Them

Suspected Russian spyware Turla targets Europe, United StatesReuters
A sophisticated piece of spyware has been quietly infecting hundreds of government computers across Europe and the United States in one of the most complex cyber espionage programs uncovered to date.

Reading "Capital": Introduction, continuedThe Economist
Last year Thomas Piketty, an economist at the Paris School of Economics and a renowned expert on global inequality, published a book titled "Capital in the Twenty-first Century"—in French. It will be released in English on March 10th. We reviewed the book earlier this year, but it is detailed and important enough, in our opinion, to deserve additional discussion.

Equity Investment StylesCopenhagen Business School
Recent evidence on the existence and cyclicality of investment styles (Master’s thesis by Christian Jensen-Gaard, June 2013)

Gen. “Mad Dog” Mattis just gave what may be the most motivating speech of all timeMilitary Times
Private jets' incredible interiorsThe Telegraph
Inside the gloriously opulent private jets of the world's richest. Thrones, gold seat buckles and a concert hall: including a prince's 'flying palace' and Trump's $100m plane. More photos by Nick Gleis

The Cookie Monster Knows More About Willpower Than YouFarnam Street

Euro on vakauden saari ja sen nimi on JapaniJan Hurri / TalSa
Euroalue on vakauden saari ja talous toipuu vailla vaaraa deflatorisesta taantumasta. Näin uskottelee EKP, joka hallinnoi talousmielikuvia paremmin kuin taloutta. Mielikuvamarkkinointi ei estä euroaluetta lipsumasta kohti "Japanin tietä" eikä EKP mahda mitään sillekään, että euromaille tuo tie olisi paljon karumpi kuin se on ollut Japanille.

Onko Saksalla kanttia Venäjän karhun kovisteluun?TalousSanomat
Saksa pystyisi todennäköisesti talousvalteillaan pysäyttämään Venäjän toimet Krimillä ja Ukrainassa. Vaikka se voisi tulla maalle kalliiksi.

Guggenheim-hanke: Helsinki ei tiedä, miten se pääsisi irti sopimuksestaSK
Poliitikoille ei ole esitetty varsinaista sopimusta irtisanomisperusteineen.