Here
are the ”best” from my posts of the ending week. Last week’s edition here.
Previously
on MoreLiver’s:
W/E: Weekly Support (updated)
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EUROPE
The sharp but
effectual remedy – mainly macro
If overall fiscal policy was being determined in Brussels rather than by
individual national governments, would it be so very different today? I suspect
we would be seeing similar overall austerity as the ‘Eurozone government’
obsessed with reducing debt. Given their relative competitive positions, that
would mean ‘stability’ in parts of the Eurozone and severe recessions
elsewhere, much as we have now.
Macro-prudential: if
not now when? – Money Matters
Now is the time to start experimenting with macroeconomic tools in the
€-area.
Soros
Says Europe Faces 25-Year Slump Without
Overhaul – BB
George Soros said Europe faces 25 years of Japanese-style
stagnation unless politicians pursue further integration of the currency bloc
and change policies that have discouraged banks from lending.
UKRAINE
Why
Ukraine Matters More Than You Think – ZH
Citi’s Matt King: As we see it, each additional headline, and each
downward revision to EM growth prospects, takes us closer to the point where
investors undertake a wholesale reevaluation of the risk-reward of EM assets
for their portfolios – just as has already happened with gold, and is happening
with commodities more broadly.
Factbox:
Western sanctions against Russia – Reuters
BANKING
Bank Oversight: Europe
Stressed by Approaching Stress Tests – Spiegel
Thousands of ECB auditors
have begun examining the balance sheets of euro-zone banks. Stress tests are
coming soon. With the ECB in charge of oversight, many hope the EU's financial
industry will return to health. But there are risks.
Banking — union or
disunion – Reuters
European governments disagree not only amongst themselves on the details
but also with the European Parliament, which must give its blessing before the
project can become law. Negotiations are set to stretch into Wednesday. If
agreement is not reached this week the parliament will run out of time before
May elections and then the project will face months of further delay.
The German veto on EU
banking regulation – FT
If all goes to plan, Berlin is securing
something rare and coveted in Brussels: the effective power
to block future EU banking regulation… Just
imagine what this would mean in practice if and when the EU should come to
revise its rules on bank failure sometime in the future.
EUROPEAN
CENTRAL BANK
The ECB has been too tight for years – Thomas Raffinot
Thomas Raffinot on the eurozone disaster – The Money Illusion
IMF economist sees
deflation risk, especially in euro zone-report – Reuters
Paralysed ECB leaves Europe at the mercy of deflation
shock from China – The Telegraph
China will seek to pass its deflationary parcel to Europe, the one region that lacks a proper central
bank and the governing coherence to protect its own interests
The
spectre of eurozone deflation – FT
Martin Wolf: The ECB is failing. The aim must be to raise inflation,
particularly in surplus countries
Why the ECB Should Buy American – Project Syndicate
Jeffrey Frankel: ECB needs to ease monetary policy further. And, with
purchases of member governments' bonds a risky – and possibly illegal –
proposition, loading up on US Treasuries would be the best way to go about it.
Draghi
Speech: Bank restructuring and the economic recovery – ECB
Draghi’s Euro Comments Are a Likely Game-Changer – WSJ
Euro Rise Shows Limits of ECB Words – WSJ
Exogenous shock from artificially high euro – Sober Look
Draghi Takes Aim at Euro Seen Too Strong for Comfort:
Currencies
– BB
UNITED STATES
Unemployment, Wages,
Inflation, and Fed Policy – Tim Duy’s Fed Watch
If the Fed follows historical behavior, they will begin tightening
before wages rise and in an environment of low inflation such that inflation
remains stable even as unemployment falls.
In other words, in recent history that have not exhibited a tendency to
overshoot. Explicit overshooting would
represent a very significant shift in the Fed's modus operandi.
CHINA
China's credit markets
under pressure – Sober Look
Copper Posts Biggest Decline Since 2011 on China Demand Concern – BB
Maybe China’s a Bigger Worry
than the Fed – WSJ
OTHER
Traders Beat Market Indexes Borrowing Tools From
Sports –
BB
Popular Memes That Are Partially or Completely BS – The Fat Pitch
Press release: Emerging economies respond to market pressure – BIS
BIS
Quarterly Review, March 2014 – BIS
FINNISH
Euro on vakauden saari ja sen nimi on Japani – Jan
Hurri / TalSa
Euroalue on
vakauden saari ja talous toipuu vailla vaaraa deflatorisesta taantumasta. Näin
uskottelee EKP, joka hallinnoi talousmielikuvia paremmin kuin taloutta.
Mielikuvamarkkinointi ei estä euroaluetta lipsumasta kohti "Japanin
tietä" eikä EKP mahda mitään sillekään, että euromaille tuo tie olisi
paljon karumpi kuin se on ollut Japanille.
Soros Taloussanomille:
Suomi ja Saksa eroon eurosta – TalSa
Suursijoittaja
George Soros jakaisi euroalueen kahtia. Eliittieurokerhoon pääsisivät muun
muassa Suomi ja Saksa. Soros kertoi näkemyksistään tänään toimittajille
Lontoossa.
Uussuomalaiset asuntomarkkinat – Pauli
Vahtera / IL
[video] Hyvinvointivaltion eloonjäämisoppia – Vartiainen
Täti tiukka ja setä löysä – Verkkouutiset
Talousnäkymät - Hauraita
ituja – Nordea
Maailmantalouden
näkymät ovat säilyneet optimistisina jo jonkin aikaa. Globaali kasvu paranee
pikku hiljaa kehittyneiden maiden vedolla. Elpymisestä vastaa ennen kaikkea
Yhdysvallat.
Puutaheinää – Hannu
Visti
"Ruotsissa julkisen talouden alijäämä on
yhtä suuri kuin Suomessa - meillä on kriisi, siellä taas ei" – TE
Ilmarista johtavan Jaakko Kianderin mielestä
erot siinä, miten Yhdysvallat ja Eurooppa ovat viime vuosina toteuttaneet
talouspolitiikkaansa, näkyvät selvästi myös siinä, miten ne ovat
talouskriiseistään toipuneet.