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Friday, March 14

14th Mar - W/E: Best of the Week

Here are the ”best” from my posts of the ending week. Last week’s edition here.

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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The sharp but effectual remedymainly macro
If overall fiscal policy was being determined in Brussels rather than by individual national governments, would it be so very different today? I suspect we would be seeing similar overall austerity as the ‘Eurozone government’ obsessed with reducing debt. Given their relative competitive positions, that would mean ‘stability’ in parts of the Eurozone and severe recessions elsewhere, much as we have now.

Macro-prudential: if not now when?Money Matters
Now is the time to start experimenting with macroeconomic tools in the €-area.

Soros Says Europe Faces 25-Year Slump Without OverhaulBB
George Soros said Europe faces 25 years of Japanese-style stagnation unless politicians pursue further integration of the currency bloc and change policies that have discouraged banks from lending.

Why Ukraine Matters More Than You ThinkZH
Citi’s Matt King: As we see it, each additional headline, and each downward revision to EM growth prospects, takes us closer to the point where investors undertake a wholesale reevaluation of the risk-reward of EM assets for their portfolios – just as has already happened with gold, and is happening with commodities more broadly.

Factbox: Western sanctions against RussiaReuters

Bank Oversight: Europe Stressed by Approaching Stress TestsSpiegel
Thousands of ECB auditors have begun examining the balance sheets of euro-zone banks. Stress tests are coming soon. With the ECB in charge of oversight, many hope the EU's financial industry will return to health. But there are risks.

Banking — union or disunionReuters
European governments disagree not only amongst themselves on the details but also with the European Parliament, which must give its blessing before the project can become law. Negotiations are set to stretch into Wednesday. If agreement is not reached this week the parliament will run out of time before May elections and then the project will face months of further delay.

The German veto on EU banking regulation FT
If all goes to plan, Berlin is securing something rare and coveted in Brussels: the effective power to block future EU banking regulation… Just imagine what this would mean in practice if and when the EU should come to revise its rules on bank failure sometime in the future.

The ECB has been too tight for years – Thomas Raffinot
Thomas Raffinot on the eurozone disaster – The Money Illusion

IMF economist sees deflation risk, especially in euro zone-reportReuters

Paralysed ECB leaves Europe at the mercy of deflation shock from ChinaThe Telegraph
China will seek to pass its deflationary parcel to Europe, the one region that lacks a proper central bank and the governing coherence to protect its own interests

The spectre of eurozone deflation FT
Martin Wolf: The ECB is failing. The aim must be to raise inflation, particularly in surplus countries

Why the ECB Should Buy AmericanProject Syndicate
Jeffrey Frankel: ECB needs to ease monetary policy further. And, with purchases of member governments' bonds a risky – and possibly illegal – proposition, loading up on US Treasuries would be the best way to go about it.

Draghi Speech: Bank restructuring and the economic recoveryECB
Draghi’s Euro Comments Are a Likely Game-Changer – WSJ
Euro Rise Shows Limits of ECB Words – WSJ
Exogenous shock from artificially high euro – Sober Look
Draghi Takes Aim at Euro Seen Too Strong for Comfort: CurrenciesBB

Unemployment, Wages, Inflation, and Fed PolicyTim Duy’s Fed Watch
If the Fed follows historical behavior, they will begin tightening before wages rise and in an environment of low inflation such that inflation remains stable even as unemployment falls.  In other words, in recent history that have not exhibited a tendency to overshoot.  Explicit overshooting would represent a very significant shift in the Fed's modus operandi.

China's credit markets under pressureSober Look

Copper Posts Biggest Decline Since 2011 on China Demand ConcernBB

Maybe China’s a Bigger Worry than the FedWSJ

Traders Beat Market Indexes Borrowing Tools From SportsBB

Popular Memes That Are Partially or Completely BSThe Fat Pitch

Press release: Emerging economies respond to market pressureBIS
BIS Quarterly Review, March 2014BIS

Euro on vakauden saari ja sen nimi on JapaniJan Hurri / TalSa
Euroalue on vakauden saari ja talous toipuu vailla vaaraa deflatorisesta taantumasta. Näin uskottelee EKP, joka hallinnoi talousmielikuvia paremmin kuin taloutta. Mielikuvamarkkinointi ei estä euroaluetta lipsumasta kohti "Japanin tietä" eikä EKP mahda mitään sillekään, että euromaille tuo tie olisi paljon karumpi kuin se on ollut Japanille.

Soros Taloussanomille: Suomi ja Saksa eroon eurostaTalSa
Suursijoittaja George Soros jakaisi euroalueen kahtia. Eliittieurokerhoon pääsisivät muun muassa Suomi ja Saksa. Soros kertoi näkemyksistään tänään toimittajille Lontoossa.

Uussuomalaiset asuntomarkkinatPauli Vahtera / IL

[video] Hyvinvointivaltion eloonjäämisoppiaVartiainen

Täti tiukka ja setä löysäVerkkouutiset

Talousnäkymät - Hauraita itujaNordea
Maailmantalouden näkymät ovat säilyneet optimistisina jo jonkin aikaa. Globaali kasvu paranee pikku hiljaa kehittyneiden maiden vedolla. Elpymisestä vastaa ennen kaikkea Yhdysvallat.

PuutaheinääHannu Visti

"Ruotsissa julkisen talouden alijäämä on yhtä suuri kuin Suomessa - meillä on kriisi, siellä taas ei"TE
Ilmarista johtavan Jaakko Kianderin mielestä erot siinä, miten Yhdysvallat ja Eurooppa ovat viime vuosina toteuttaneet talouspolitiikkaansa, näkyvät selvästi myös siinä, miten ne ovat talouskriiseistään toipuneet.