Google Analytics

Thursday, March 6

6th Mar - ECB does nothing, US payrolls tomorrow

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter

Monetary policy decisions – ECB
Introductory statement to the press conference – ECB
Macroeconomic projections – ECB

Live comments on ECB meeting – FT
Recap: ECB Keeps the Toolbox Closed – WSJ

ECB Does Nothing, Draghi Explains Why, Euro RalliesMarc to Market

All talk, no action from ECB disappoints marketsTradingFloor
Juhani Huopainen: The European Central Bank's meeting left rates unchanged and did not introduce any new easing measures to combat deflationary threats. Instead, Draghi explained why its monetary tools would not work. The markets took note and took the EURUSD higher.

ECB meeting - featuring The ZlackMerkelnomics
Over the last month’s, the ECB had often put many market participants off the scent. With today’s meeting, this confusion should hopefully end. New action is still possible but only if tensions in the money market increase and/or the inflation outlook worsens. Until then, the ECB will lean back and do nothing, enjoying what Draghi called the island of stability.

No policy shift from ECB despite low inflationReuters
ECB left interest rates on hold and unveiled no other measures to bolster a fragile euro zone recovery on Thursday, despite forecasting low inflation for years to come.

ECB holds rates, looks at back door measure to loosen policyReuters
Draghi says deflation danger should abate as economy revivesBB

US Labor Market: What is Going On?Marc to Market
Due to the unusual winter, a weak report will be generally played down by many, if not most economists, including those in policy positions.  Second, and what follows from this, is that almost regardless of the report, the trajectory of Fed policy remains intact.  That means the Fed continues to taper. 

5 Things to Watch in Friday’s Jobs ReportWSJ
Did the labor market’s winter slump continue in February? The Labor Department’s monthly jobs report, due out Friday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, could provide clues about whether the U.S. economy is losing steam or whether the cold weather is to blame for the recent stretch of weak economic data.

Vital Signs: Job Security Is On the RiseWSJ

Will the slowdown in US services sector reverse with warmer weather?Sober Look

This is why the Fed should start worrying about inflation againWaPo
A strong possibility that unemployment rate has hit the 6.5 percent threshold the Fed has set for considering raising interest rates. As it turns out, that threshold is also an important marker for the behavior of inflation.

Fed’s Fisher Worried About Creating Financial ImbalancesWSJ

Fed may fall 'behind the curve' if GDP keeps growing: PlosserReuters

Factory Orders Miss 3rd Month In A Row As Inventories Hit Record High – ZH
U.S. factory orders, shipments fall in January – Reuters
Three-month low in U.S. jobless claims offers hope for labor market – Reuters
U.S. household wealth above $80 trillion; boosted by stocks, housing – Reuters
U.S. retailers say business picked up later in February – Reuters

Economists React: China’s Mission Impossible?WSJ
With China's legislature meeting in Beijing, officials are setting out their goals for the year and offering a rare degree of press access in a flurry of news briefings. Economists weigh in.

EM’s dark debt squeeze exposureFT
We have of course been here before. During the subprime crisis unexpected sums of dark debt emerged from off-balance sheet bank liabilities, SIVs and such the like. The impact, as we all now know, was immense. But there’s a very good reason to suspect that “dark debt” hasn’t gone away entirely.

Exclusive: Russia wants IMF to move ahead on reforms without U.S.Reuters
Russian officials are pushing for the IMF to move ahead with planned reforms without the United States, which could mean the loss of the U.S. veto over major decisions at the global lender, sources said.

Bad is good, might be bad, but is definitely bullishFT
In today’s weird world of investment, the big risk is that growth is too slow because it will leave policy too loose which could cause bubbles that ultimately will be bad, we think. It’s not just Cold War warriors longing for the days of simple structures they could understand.

FX Board for March 6, 2014: Draghi shruggedTradingFloor
John J. Hardy: ECB president Draghi sent the Euro ripping higher as anticipation of an ECB easing move was once again disappointed. Elsewhere, the JPY was the weakest of the weak and the greenback is also looking green in the face ahead of payrolls tomorrow.

Mitä jos Maidan tapahtuisi Kreikassa?Tom Packalen / US

Vaihtotaseylijäämä sopii taantuvalle taloudelleRoger Wessman

Ukrainalle esitetään nopeaa sopimusta EU:n kanssaVerkkouutiset

EU jäädyttää Janukovitshin ja 17 ukrainalaisen varatTalSa

Aavekaupunkeja, kiinteistökuplia, varjopankkeja – Kiinan talousihmeVerkkouutiset
Kiinan historiallisen talouskasvun tuottanut hallinto- ja talousrakenne on kääntymässä itseään vastaan, arvioidaan Elinkeinoelämän valtuuskunnan tuoreessa analyysissa.

Näinkö kävisi, jos eurojytky tulisi?Verkkouutiset
Euroopan parlamentin valtapuolueiden yhteistyö tiivistyy todennäköisesti entisestään, jos euroskeptiset populistipuolueet saavat toukokuun vaaleissa odotetun vaalivoiton, torstaina ilmestyneessä Ulkopolitiikka-lehdessä arvioidaan.

Stubbin vaalimatka ministeriön piikkiin?PS
Ministeri ei saa teettää vaalikampanjaansa avustajilla tai maksattaa sitä ministeriönsä varoilla. Kampanjatyö on tarkasti erotettava virkatyöstä. Mutta muuttuko ministerin koko päivä virkatyöksi, jos kiivaan kampanjapäivän lomaan ujutetaan yksi näennäinen virkatehtävä?

Nato-vaalit syksylläIS
Pääministeri Jyrki Kataisen (kok) hallitus on törmännyt seinään, tai itse asiassa seiniin, yrittäessään hoitaa valtakunnan asioita.