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Tuesday, March 25

25th Mar - Europe talks down the euro

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Europe Newest Steps Forward to Deal with Failing BanksPIIE
After 16 hours of marathon negotiations, the European Union struck a deal on March 20 to create a single resolution mechanism (SRM) and single resolution fund (SRF) for failing European banks. In theory, the contours of how to shut down such a bank are now clearer, but we still need the fine print.

Deconstructing the EuroProject Syndicate
The eurozone’s current travails stem from the fact that the euro’s exchange rate does not align with member countries' economic positions – a problem that cannot be resolved within the currency union. The only way to restore balance to Europe is to pursue a controlled segmentation of the eurozone, led by Germany and France.

Rise of the Eurosceptics: Socialists Hammered in French Elections; Le Pen Surprises, Calls for "Alliance of Eurosceptics"Mish’s

What does Alternative für Deutschland really stand for? Its getting hard to tellOpen Europe

ECB's Visco warns on risk of too low inflation expectations – Reuters

ECB's Weidmann says quantitative easing not out of the question Reuters

Q&A: ECB’s Liikanen on Possibility of Additional Stimulus and More WSJ
Bank of Finland Governor Erkki Liikanen sat down with The Wall Street Journal’s Brian Blackstone to discuss the possibility of interest rate cuts and other stimulus measures, the euro zone’s efforts to create a banking union and the “DNA” of central bankers.

Euro falls as ECB steps up rhetoric about currency's strengthReuters
Jens Weidmann said negative interest rates were an option the bank could use to counter strong gains in the single currency. Weidmann also said it was not out of the question for the ECB to buy assets from banks to fight deflation, marking a radical softening of the German central bank's strict stance on quantitative easing.

More Thoughts about Potential for QE from the ECBMarc to Market
There seems to be a stepped effort by ECB officials to talk the euro down.

Speech Mario Draghi: A consistent strategy for a sustained recoveryECB

ECB tested as push-back against bank review rules beginsReuters
ECB’s determination to subject the euro zone's largest banks to the same, rigorous checks is being tested, with countries lobbying for their banks to be treated differently and lenders asking for their workload to be eased.

Putin’s Reality Check for EuropeProject Syndicate
Whether or not its leaders acknowledge it, the EU is now in direct conflict with Russia over its enlargement policy since the end of the Cold War. That is because Russia’s re-emergence as a global power requires not just the reintegration of lost Soviet territories, but also a dominant role in Eastern Europe.

Ukraine Seeks to Wrap Up IMF Talks as Crisis Hits EconomyBB
Ukraine is completing bailout talks with the International Monetary Fund to avert a default and curb damage to the economy from a four-month political crisis. Loan negotiations began three weeks ago. To speed up the process, Ukrainian Premier Arseniy Yatsenyuk canceled a trip to The Hague, where world leaders are discussing the standoff with Russia over his country. The IMF will announce the results of its mission tomorrow, with Ukraine seeking as much as $20 billion, Finance Minister Oleksandr Shlapak said today in Kiev.

Putin Threatened With More Sanctions as Russia Out of G-8BB
Meeting for the first time since last week’s annexation of Crimea by Russia, Group of Seven leaders said last night they won’t attend a planned G-8 meeting which was to have been held in Sochi, site of the Winter Olympics, and will instead hold their own summit in June in Brussels.

West, Russia signal line drawn in Ukraine crisisReuters
Russia and the West sought to draw a provisional line under the Ukraine crisis on Tuesday after major industrialized nations warned Moscow of tougher economic sanctions if it goes beyond the seizure of Crimea.

Results of the March 2014 Ifo Business Survey – CESifo
Ifo expectations fell for second month in a row and could fall further – Danske Bank
Germany: Ifo dragged down by expectations – Nordea

U.S. consumer confidence hits six-year high in March – Reuters
Consumer Confidence in U.S. Rose to Six-Year High in March – BB
Consumer Confidence Jumps To 6-Year High – ZH
Consumer Confidence Bounces Back in March – dshort

U.S. home prices rise in January: S&P/Case-Shiller – Reuters
Sales of New U.S. Homes Fell in February to Five-Month Low – BB
New Home Sales To Lowest Since October, Median Price Below Year Ago Levels – ZH
Home Prices in 20 U.S. Cities Rose 13.2% in Year to January – BB
Home sales fall, but consumer confidence hits six-year high – Reuters
Comment on House Prices – Calculated Risk
U.S. New Home Sale Prices at the Mercy of Mortgage Rates – dshort

EM FX Monocle – DifferentiationNordea
Emerging Market FX remains vulnerable to bouts of risk aversion as global financial conditions tighten and fears of a hard landing in China resurface. However, vulnerabilities differ across the EM universe.

EM held back by weak global recoveryFT
Economies with reliance on commodity exports remain fragile

FX Board for March 25, 2014: EUR speed bump?TradingFloor
John J Hardy: The Euro has been resilient in recent days, but a heavy dose of rhetoric is pushing it lower again. Meanwhile, NZD is underperforming and the AUD has really taken it to the European majors.

Euro Slips, but Focus ElsewhereMarc to Market

Jeremy Grantham 1999, Jeremy Grantham Today: "Over Next Seven Years, Market Will have Negative Returns"Mish’s

IMF Research Bulletin, March 2014IMF

Tietoisuus talous- ja rahaliiton riskeistä 2014VM
VM:n selvitys: Tässä ovat kaikki euron 28 virhettäTE

Ekonomistit: Valtion omaisuutta sopisi myydä – kunhan ei velanhoitoonTalSa

Häämöttääkö USA:ssa jo työvoimapula?Roger Wessman

Lapsilta kiellettävä joulu, pasha ja pääsiäismunat!IS

Kansa valmis Natoon, jos valtiojohto niin haluaaVerkkouutiset
Soini: Tarvitsemme Natosta perinpohjaisen kansalaiskeskustelunVerkkouutiset

Tästä mallia kehysriiheen - IS laati kolmen miljardin säästölistan tunnissa!IS

Valtion tulee käynnistää yt-neuvottelutPaavo Väyrynen / US

Sopeutuspaketti jää alle kolmen miljardin – ansiosidonnaista leikataanHS

Urpilainen: Verot ja säästöt kaikki sovittu – Katainen: Kivulias ratkaisuHS

Kehysriihi: Leikkauksia tulossa veronkorotuksia enemmänYLE

Vasemmistoliitto hylkäsi kehysesityksen – vaativat jatkoneuvotteluja – YLE
Arhinmäki: Vasemmistoliitto ei voi tukea säästöpakettia kokonaisuutena – YLE
Vasemmistoliitto ei hyväksy kehysriihipakettia – TalSa
Arhinmäki: Arvaa, onko vaikeaa? – YLE

Vasemmistoliitto lähtee hallituksesta – HS
Vasemmistoliitto lähtee hallituksesta – YLE
Vasemmistoliitto lähtee hallituksesta – TalSa
Lähtevä Arhinmäki: Olen ylpeä kolmesta vuodesta – HS

Helmikuun työttömyysaste 9,1 prosenttia – Tilastokeskus
Työttömyysaste yli 9 prosentin – Todellisuus numeroita synkempi – Verkkouutiset
Pitkäaikaistyöttömyys: kasvua hurjat +28 prosenttia – KL

"Työttömyystilanne Tilastokeskuksen tilastoja pahempi" – TalSa