Previously
on MoreLiver’s:
W/E: Weekly Support (updated!)
EUROPE
After 16 hours of marathon negotiations, the European Union struck a deal
on March 20 to create a single resolution mechanism (SRM) and single resolution
fund (SRF) for failing European banks. In theory, the contours of how to shut
down such a bank are now clearer, but we still need the fine print.
Deconstructing the
Euro
– Project
Syndicate
The eurozone’s current travails stem from the fact that the euro’s
exchange rate does not align with member countries' economic positions – a
problem that cannot be resolved within the currency union. The only way to
restore balance to Europe is to pursue a controlled segmentation of the
eurozone, led by Germany and France.
Rise of the
Eurosceptics: Socialists Hammered in French Elections; Le Pen Surprises, Calls
for "Alliance of Eurosceptics" – Mish’s
What does Alternative
für Deutschland really stand for? Its getting hard to tell – Open
Europe
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
ECB's Visco warns on
risk of too low inflation expectations – Reuters
ECB's Weidmann says
quantitative easing not out of the question – Reuters
Q&A: ECB’s
Liikanen on Possibility of Additional Stimulus and More – WSJ
Bank of Finland Governor Erkki Liikanen sat down with The Wall Street
Journal’s Brian Blackstone to discuss the possibility of interest rate cuts and
other stimulus measures, the euro zone’s efforts to create a banking union and
the “DNA” of central bankers.
Euro falls as ECB
steps up rhetoric about currency's strength – Reuters
Jens Weidmann said negative interest rates were an option the bank could
use to counter strong gains in the single currency. Weidmann also said it was
not out of the question for the ECB to buy assets from banks to fight
deflation, marking a radical softening of the German central bank's strict
stance on quantitative easing.
More Thoughts about
Potential for QE from the ECB – Marc
to Market
There seems to be a stepped effort by ECB officials to talk the euro
down.
Speech Mario Draghi:
A consistent strategy for a sustained recovery – ECB
ECB tested as
push-back against bank review rules begins – Reuters
ECB’s determination to subject the euro zone's largest banks to the
same, rigorous checks is being tested, with countries lobbying for their banks
to be treated differently and lenders asking for their workload to be eased.
UKRAINE / RUSSIA
Whether or not its leaders acknowledge it, the EU is now in direct
conflict with Russia over its enlargement
policy since the end of the Cold War. That is because Russia’s re-emergence as a
global power requires not just the reintegration of lost Soviet territories,
but also a dominant role in Eastern Europe.
Ukraine is completing
bailout talks with the International Monetary Fund to avert a default and curb
damage to the economy from a four-month political crisis. Loan negotiations
began three weeks ago. To speed up the process, Ukrainian Premier Arseniy
Yatsenyuk canceled a trip to The Hague, where world leaders
are discussing the standoff with Russia over his country.
The IMF will announce the results of its mission tomorrow, with Ukraine seeking as much as
$20 billion, Finance Minister Oleksandr Shlapak said today in Kiev.
Meeting for the first time since last week’s annexation of Crimea by Russia, Group of Seven
leaders said last night they won’t attend a planned G-8 meeting which was to
have been held in Sochi, site of the Winter
Olympics, and will instead hold their own summit in June in Brussels.
Russia and the West sought
to draw a provisional line under the Ukraine crisis on Tuesday
after major industrialized nations warned Moscow of tougher economic
sanctions if it goes beyond the seizure of Crimea.
MACRO NUMBERS
Results of the March 2014 Ifo Business Survey – CESifo
Ifo expectations fell for second month in a row and could fall further –
Danske
Bank
Germany: Ifo dragged down by
expectations – Nordea
Consumer Confidence Jumps To 6-Year High – ZH
Consumer Confidence Bounces Back in March – dshort
U.S. home prices rise in
January: S&P/Case-Shiller – Reuters
New Home Sales To Lowest Since October, Median Price Below Year Ago
Levels – ZH
Home sales fall, but consumer confidence hits six-year high – Reuters
Comment on House Prices – Calculated
Risk
U.S. New Home Sale Prices
at the Mercy of Mortgage Rates – dshort
Emerging Market FX
remains vulnerable to bouts of risk aversion as global financial conditions
tighten and fears of a hard landing in China resurface. However, vulnerabilities differ
across the EM universe.
EM held back by weak global recovery – FT
Economies with
reliance on commodity exports remain fragile
John J Hardy: The Euro
has been resilient in recent days, but a heavy dose of rhetoric is pushing it
lower again. Meanwhile, NZD is underperforming and the AUD has really taken it to
the European majors.
Euro Slips, but Focus Elsewhere – Marc
to Market
Jeremy Grantham 1999,
Jeremy Grantham Today: "Over Next Seven Years, Market Will have Negative
Returns" – Mish’s
IMF Research
Bulletin, March 2014 – IMF
FINNISH
Tietoisuus talous- ja rahaliiton riskeistä
2014 – VM
VM:n selvitys: Tässä ovat kaikki euron 28
virhettä – TE
Ekonomistit: Valtion omaisuutta sopisi myydä
– kunhan ei velanhoitoon – TalSa
Häämöttääkö USA:ssa jo työvoimapula? – Roger
Wessman
Lapsilta kiellettävä joulu, pasha ja
pääsiäismunat! – IS
Kansa valmis Natoon, jos valtiojohto niin
haluaa – Verkkouutiset
Soini: Tarvitsemme Natosta perinpohjaisen
kansalaiskeskustelun
– Verkkouutiset
KEHYSRIIHI
Tästä mallia kehysriiheen - IS laati kolmen
miljardin säästölistan tunnissa! – IS
Valtion tulee käynnistää yt-neuvottelut – Paavo
Väyrynen / US
Sopeutuspaketti jää alle kolmen miljardin –
ansiosidonnaista leikataan – HS
Urpilainen: Verot ja säästöt kaikki sovittu –
Katainen: Kivulias ratkaisu – HS
Kehysriihi: Leikkauksia tulossa
veronkorotuksia enemmän
– YLE
Vasemmistoliitto
hylkäsi kehysesityksen – vaativat jatkoneuvotteluja – YLE
Arhinmäki:
Vasemmistoliitto ei voi tukea säästöpakettia kokonaisuutena – YLE
Vasemmistoliitto
ei hyväksy kehysriihipakettia – TalSa
Arhinmäki:
Arvaa, onko vaikeaa? – YLE
Vasemmistoliitto
lähtee hallituksesta – HS
Vasemmistoliitto
lähtee hallituksesta – YLE
Vasemmistoliitto
lähtee hallituksesta – TalSa
Lähtevä
Arhinmäki: Olen ylpeä kolmesta vuodesta – HS
TYÖTTÖMYYS
Helmikuun työttömyysaste 9,1 prosenttia – Tilastokeskus
Työttömyysaste
yli 9 prosentin – Todellisuus numeroita synkempi – Verkkouutiset
Pitkäaikaistyöttömyys:
kasvua hurjat +28 prosenttia – KL
"Työttömyystilanne
Tilastokeskuksen tilastoja pahempi" – TalSa