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Thursday, March 6

5th Mar - EU semester, bad US macro



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EUROPE
It’s true, Italy breaks your heart - but can Italy break from its past?Bruegel
Such extraordinary levels of persistent austerity can fray the political fabric. They can also be economically disastrous.

'Sarkoleaks' leave former French president 'furious' The Telegraph
Nicolas Sarkozy said to be "furious" over leaked conversations with top Elysée adviser revealing Carla Bruni-Sarkozy joked he was a "kept man"

  EUROPEAN SEMESTER: MACROECONOMIC IMBALANCES
Press release: In-depth reviews – Europa
Memo: In-depth reviews – Europa
Communication to the European Parliament – Europa
Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure – Europa

EU Says Italy Faces a ‘Major Challenge’ in Reducing DebtBB
Italy has to address the very high level of public debt and weak external competitiveness. Both are ultimately rooted in the protracted sluggish productivity growth and demand urgent policy attention.”

EU warns Italy is in economic trouble, France to miss deficit targetsReuters
The European Commission put Italy on Wednesday on its watch list because of the country's very high public debt and weak competitiveness and warned France that will miss agreed budget deficit reduction targets unless it takes action.

  EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
Deflation and the ECBCoppola Comment
I argued for unwinding of the Euro. That is still my position. But the Euro is what we currently have, and deflation is what we currently risk. The ECB must act, and politicians in the Eurozone must allow it to do so. Treaties be damned.

ECB preview: Action! but not in the shape of a rate cutTradingFloor
Mads Koefoed: Will the ECB cut or not? Tension is building ahead of the March meeting of the governing council. I expect, however, that the council will keep its rate ammo dry, and instead end sterilisation of the securities markets programme.

ECB, BOE To Stick On Policy. But Debate Heats UpWSJ
http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/03/05/ecb-boe-to-stick-on-policy-but-debate-heats-up/?mod=WSJBlog

What is the ECB to Do?Marc to Market
http://www.marctomarket.com/2014/03/what-is-ecb-to-do.html

ECB set to act against low inflation, hold fire on bolder stepsReuters
The ECB is expected to hold off on cutting interest rates on Thursday, opting instead to loosen lending conditions to fight off the danger of debilitating low inflation.

ECB May Repeat Japan Mistake That Triggered Lost DecadeBB
The concern now for economists is that Draghi risks making the same mistake as the Bank of Japan - publicly playing down a deflation threat -- and ultimately may have to introduce quantitative easing.

Nationalbanken preview ahead of the ECB meetingDanske Bank

  MACRO NUMBERS
Euro zone Feb PMI business growth strongest in 2-1/2 years – Reuters
Volume of retail trade up by 1.6% in euro area – Eurostat
Euro area GDP up by 0.3%, EU28 up by 0.4% – Eurostat

UNITED STATES
Bernanke Urges Emerging Markets to Prepare for End of Fed StimulusWSJ
Former Fed Chairman Bernanke urged emerging-market countries to do more to protect themselves from the impact of an eventual end to the Fed's economic stimulus efforts.

If You Thought January's Payrolls Were Bad, February's Should Be A DisasterZH

Fed Saw Growth Even as Harsh Weather Slowed Hiring, SalesBB
Fed confirms weather-related drag on U.S. economy in early 2014Reuters
Severe weather across much of the United States took a toll on shopping and consumer spending in recent weeks, leading to slower economic growth or outright contraction in some areas of the country, the Federal Reserve said on Wednesday.

  MACRO NUMBERS
ISM Non-Manufacturing: Slowest Growth Since January 2010 – dshort
ISM Data for January and February Suggest Sharp Slowing in Q1 GDP – dshort
ISM Services Collapse To Lowest In 4 Years; Employment Worst Since Lehman – ZH
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decreases to 51.6 in February – Calculated Risk
Weakest ISM Services Report Since February 2010 – Bespoke
Weather restrains U.S. private hiring, services sector growth – Reuters

OTHER
BOE’s Haldane Calls for Bigger IMF Role in Safeguarding Financial SystemWSJ

The Trillion Dollar Question: Who Owns Emerging Market Government DebtiMFdirect
Before the crisis, foreign investors showed moderate differentiation among countries:  some received inflows while others faced outflows. As it usually happens, this differentiation became much sharper during the crisis. However, during the third period (2010–12), we found that foreign flows became almost always positive and much less differentiated

The World in 2020Bruegel

FINNISH
Kasvun eväät levähtävätTalSa
Suomen hauraita kasvuodotuksia varjostavat jälleen monet yhtaikaiset huonot uutiset.

Elinkeinoelämän EU-vaaliviestit visualisoitunaEK

Talouden kylmä sota kävisi kaikille kalliiksiJan Hurri / TalSa
Venäjän painostaminen talouspakottein on vaikeaa, ja yritys kääntyy herkästi pakottajia itseään vastaan. Länsi tarvitsee Venäjän energiaa kipeämmin kuin Venäjä lännen rahoja. Talouden kylmä sota kävisi kalliiksi kaikille, mutta raskaimmin kärsisivät Länsi-Euroopan energiajuopot uhoajat.

Roman Schatzin Maamme-kirja: Sietämätön suvaitsevaisuusYLE
Suomessa vallitsee sananvapaus. Silti täällä on paljon asioita, joista ei saa puhua tai joista saa olla vain yhtä mieltä. On aiheita, joihin ei kannata koskea ja virallisia mielipiteitä, joista ei saa poiketa. Estääkö poliittinen korrektius meitä ajattelemasta? Mitkä ovat tämän päivän tabuteemat, miksi ne ovat tabuja ja kuinka yhteiskuntamme niitä käsittelee? Vieraina ovat Vasemmistonuorten puheenjohtaja Li Andersson ja Homma-foorumin perustajajäsen, perussuomalainen Matias Turkkila.

Eurokriisi ja Irlannin ”ihme”Sampo Terho

Suomen talousnäkymät yhä hauraammat Ukrainan kriisin myötäElina Lepomäki / US

Venäjän firmoilla isot kasat "piilotettua velkaa"TalSa
Dollari- ja euromääräiset lainat aiheuttavat uskottua suuremman riskin kehittyville talouksille, jos korot nousevat ja maiden omat valuutat jatkavat heikkenemistään. Näin arvio japanilaispankki Nomura. Eniten tällaista velkaa on Venäjän ja Ukrainan yrityksillä.

Juhani Suomi: Toisinajattelevan tasavalta
Suomi. Juhani Suomi – Suomi2017
Suomi synkistelee – TS
Yrmyyden poetiikkaa – Antiaikalainen
  
Lehdistö saamassa tukeademari
Ministeri puoltaa "henkistä huoltovarmuutta"demari