W/E: Weekly Support (updated)
EUROPE
Soros Says Europe Faces
25-Year Slump Without Overhaul – BB
George Soros said Europe faces 25 years of
Japanese-style stagnation unless politicians pursue further integration of the
currency bloc and change policies that have discouraged banks from lending.
Economic Outlook -
Fragile growth – Nordea
In the Nordic region Sweden appears to be best
positioned for substantial progress over the coming years. Denmark and Finland are both in for a
moderate recovery while the Norwegian economy dampens significantly after years
of high growth.
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
ECB’s Hansson: Energy
Price Falls Largely Responsible for Low Inflation – WSJ
ECB’s Coeure: No
Deflation in the Euro Zone, but Risk Remains – WSJ
ECB’s Praet: Current
issues and challenges for central bank communication – ECB
ECB moves closer to
decision on minutes – FT
ECB is nearing a decision on whether to publish the minutes of its
monetary policy meetings, a top official signalled on Wednesday, a move which
would bring the central bank into line with peers in the UK, US and Japan.
Paralysed ECB leaves Europe at
the mercy of deflation shock from China – The
Telegraph
China will seek to pass its deflationary parcel to Europe, the one region that lacks a proper central
bank and the governing coherence to protect its own interests
The spectre of
eurozone deflation – FT
Martin Wolf: The ECB is failing. The aim must be to raise inflation,
particularly in surplus countries
UKRAINE CRISIS
Russia Said to Get Ready
for Iran-Style Sanctions in Worst Case – BB
CRISIS COUNTRIES
It is clearly nonsense to argue that the damage done to the economy and
health of the Greek people is all down to corruption and inefficiency within Greece and nothing to do
with Troika actions. Denial of responsibility is particularly dangerous if it
means not admitting your mistakes but instead repeating them.
Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi on Wednesday presented a sweeping
package of tax cuts, saying they could help economic recovery in the euro
zone's third largest economy without breaking EU budget deficit limits.
UNITED STATES
Fischer has been nominated to be the vice chairman of the Federal
Reserve Board. But senators should query him during his confirmation hearing
about his time as No. 2 at the IMF.
LABOR MARKET & FED TIGHTENING
On That Hawkish Wage
Talk
– Tim
Duy’s Fed Watch
It is reasonable to expect that evidence that slack is dissapating more
quickly than expected will trigger a fresh assessment among policy makers
regarding the appropriate policy path. Next week is probably too soon; later
meetings are more likely. Given that
wages already appear to be on the rise - a key sign of tightening labor markets
- that change could happen quickly. This
is not a call for higher rates; it is a warning that higher rates might be
coming.
Jobs and Unemployment – EPI
Nowhere CloseThe Long March from Here to Full Employment
A few points on slack – The
Economist
Things are mostly moving in the right direction, but across several key
variables that improvement has merely pushed the labour market back to where it
was in the depths of the last two recessions. The Fed's latest projections show
the economy reaching full employment in 2016.
Known unknowns about
labour market slack – FT
In our opinion, the stronger hawkish argument right now is about
financial instability. We don’t actually agree this argument either.
Overshooting and the
Fed –
FT
People are confusing two separate questions in the recent debate about
wage rises and spare capacity in the US economy: first, the
amount of slack left in the labour market, and second, whether the Fed should
deliberately try to overshoot its inflation objective of 2 per cent.
What is the Fed's
Real Inflation Target? – Macro
Musings
Even two years out the FOMC is predicting inflation no higher than 2%.
Since the FOMC has some influence on inflation this far out, this forecast
reflects beliefs about current and expected Fed policy. It suggests that the
FOMC is not taking an symmetric approach to its 2% inflation target. Instead,
the FOMC is aiming to error on the side below 2%, at least in its forecasts.
OTHER
Global Business Cycle
Monitor – Danske
Bank
Global indicators weakened somewhat at the beginning of 2014, partly due
to bad weather in the US. Europe is the strongest
region while indicators in the US and EM have softened.
FINLAND
Soros Taloussanomille: Suomi ja Saksa eroon
eurosta – TalSa
Suursijoittaja
George Soros jakaisi euroalueen kahtia. Eliittieurokerhoon pääsisivät muun
muassa Suomi ja Saksa. Soros kertoi näkemyksistään tänään toimittajille
Lontoossa.
"Suomalainen talouskeskustelu täysin
yksiäänistä" – TalSa
Tutkijat
Jussi Ahokas ja Lauri Holappa esittelivät tänään Helsingin yliopistolla
rahatalouden toimintaa ruotivaa tietokirjaansa. Ilmarisen johtaja Jaakko
Kiander ja Valtion taloudellisen tutkimuskeskuksen ylijohtaja Juhana Vartiainen
kiittelivät teosta.
Talousnäkymät - Hauraita ituja – Nordea
Maailmantalouden
näkymät ovat säilyneet optimistisina jo jonkin aikaa. Globaali kasvu paranee
pikku hiljaa kehittyneiden maiden vedolla. Elpymisestä vastaa ennen kaikkea
Yhdysvallat.
"Suomen talous kasvaa, jos sotimaan ei
aleta" – TalSa
Sota
Krimillä tai Venäjälle asetettavat talouspakotteet kääntäisivät Suomen
talouskasvun laskuksi, Nordean pääekonomisti Aki Kangasharju sanoo.