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Thursday, March 27

27th Mar - IMF package to Ukraine, US housing hit by tapering

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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German Finance Minister: EU Treaty changes back on table after European electionsReuters

Nordic Outlook - March 2014Danske Bank
Denmark: Despite a weak end to 2013, the Danish economy is set for stronger growth Sweden: Strong growth and increasing employment Norway: Growth to be driven by exports and looser lending standards Finland: Gloomy domestic demand holds back Finnish economy

Is a Second Euro Crisis Possible?Triple Crisis
An ECJ decision against the OMT would imply that it would endorse a reduction of the ECB’s economic mandate that goes against the long history of modern banking since the time of Walter Bagehot’s Lombard Street contribution in 1873.

Is The Bank of England Getting Nervous?WSJ
If the BOE really is becoming uncomfortable about the developments in the real estate market but is reluctant to hike rates, it seems almost certain to introduce its so-called macro-prudential rules, possibly including restrictions on mortgage leverage ratios.

Partiam, partiamo or the ECB communication Money Matters
The new pitch of the choir is creating some market expectations. If these expectations will be, again, disappointed, whatever calming effect was obtained on the exchange rate will be lost and we could see further strengthening of the €, with the ensuing, undesired result of downward pressure on inflation.

ECB Faces Uncharted Waters With Negative Deposit RateWSJ

Euro Zone Faces Real Deflation Risk Says Spain's ECB Council MemberWSJ
Comments Echo Other ECB Officials, Signaling ECB May Be Considering Further Measures

Monetary Developments in the euro area Feb 2014ECB
Banks' Lending to Private Sector Falls Again – WSJ
Euro zone private sector loans contract further in Feb – Reuters
Euro money supply and credit data still weak in February – Danske Bank

IMF Reaches Deal to Provide up to $18 Billion to UkraineWSJ
Ukraine Must Complete 'Prior Actions' Before Package Is Approved
Ukraine and IMF: Step Forward Now – Macro and Markets
Eastern promises: The IMF-Ukraine bailout – Bruegel
IMF throws Ukraine a financial lifeline – Reuters
Ukraine Unlocks $27 Billion International Aid Deal – BB
Will IMF austerity to Ukraine have same effect as in Greece? – Mindful Money
Ukraine Debt Restructuring Still Possible – WSJ

Russian buildup on Ukraine border continuesReuters
U.S. and European security agencies estimate Russia has deployed military and militia units totaling more than 30,000 people along its border with eastern Ukraine, according to U.S. and European sources familiar with official reporting. -

Senate, House Pass Russian Sanctions Called Putin WarningBB
The U.S. Senate and House passed separate bills today imposing additional sanctions on Russian officials for the nation’s annexation of Crimea from Ukraine.

Russia Faces Recession Risk as Capital Outflows Bleed EconomyBB
Russia faces a growing risk of recession as a hemorrhaging of $100 billion in capital this year may bring the economy to a near standstill, according to analysts and government officials.

Windfall for hedge funds and Russian banks as IMF rescues UkraineThe Telegraph
Ukraine’s premier said his country was “on the edge of economic and financial bankruptcy”, but will comply with demands for drastic austerity

5-year treasury cheapest in years after selloffSober Look
We've come a long way from the days when the 5-year treasury was highly overpriced relative to the rest of the curve and the market was pricing in "perpetual" QE.

Fed Stresses Over Foreign BanksWSJ
The Federal Reserve began flexing its muscle as the de facto global financial regulator on Wednesday, rejecting the capital plans for the U.S. units of three foreign banks.

It seems hard to handicap the meaning of qualitative concerns. The text reads like the Fed is trying to send a message to the banks. The NYFRB has recently also been publishing a series of papers on the downside risks of too-big-to-fail banks. When read in conjunction with the comments from Fed governor Stein, it seems like the Fed is taking some early steps to slow the building of leverage in the banking system and keep the banks on their toes. The most immediate effect seems to be limited to a delay in the banks’ plans to return capital to shareholders.

Fed rejects Citi’s 2014 dividend and stock buyback plansFT

Fed’s Retreat From Mortgages Approaching Tipping PointBB
The Fed is about to find out how well the mortgage-bond market can stand on its own. Fed buying of the securities that helped spur a housing recovery is poised to fall below growth in the $5.5 trillion government-backed market as soon as May

Fed’s Bullard: Limited Value In Central Bank International CoordinationWSJ

Fed’s Pianalto: Still Falling Short on Fed’s Job, Inflation GoalsWSJ

Fed’s Dudley: Fed Should Take Better Account of Its International ImpactWSJ

Final Q4 2013 GDP Misses Expectations, Rises 2.6% Annualized – ZH
Q4 GDP Revised up to 2.6% - Calculated Risk
U.S. growth improves, jobless claims drop – Reuters
Economy in U.S. Expands More Than Previously Estimated – BB
GDP Q4 Third Estimate at 2.6%, Up from the 2.4% Second Estimate – dshort
Visualizing GDP: Dissecting the Third Estimate Upward Revision – dshort

Pending Home Sales Index down 10.5% year-over-year in February – Calculated Risk
Housing Data is Flashing warning signsGlobal Macro Trading
House Prices and Lagged Data – Calculated Risk

China's Economy Under Mounting StressWSJ
Bad news is piling up for China’s economy, raising fears Beijing’s financial power may not be sufficient this time around to keep the economic engine ticking over and stave off market instability. Signs of economic stress are mounting as companies report disappointing profits and state-owned banks take large debt write-offs.

The End of Chinese Central PlanningProject Syndicate
Stephen S. Roach: Since Deng Xiaoping’s reforms of the early 1980’s, senior Chinese policymakers have paid less and less attention to central planners’ numerical growth targets. Now they are close to taking the final step in the long journey to a market-based economy, by adopting a flexible framework in which GDP growth currently does not come first.

Cross Currents Produce Mixed DollarMarc to Market

FX Board for March 27, 2014: No more Swiss squeezeTradingFloor
John J Hardy: The squeeze in EURCHF failed to gain traction after yesterday’s highs. Elsewhere, the USD simply refuses to make a statement while NOK joined the commodity dollars in rallying against the G3.

EMEA Weekly: IMF to unlock USD27bn for UkraineDanske Bank

HS-gallup: Kokoomuksen suosio kasvoi, ykkössija vielä keskustallaHS
Päähallituspuolue kokoomuksen kannatus on jatkanut maaliskuussa pientä kasvua ja ykkössijaa pitävän oppositiopuolue keskustan suosio lievää laskua, selviää Helsingin Sanomien teettämästä tuoreesta puoluekannatusmittauksesta.

Ehdotus: Tällainen tulee Suomen pankkisotkujen siivoojastaTE
Suomeen tulisi perustaa uusi kriisinratkaisuun liittyviä asioita hoitava viranomainen, ehdottaa rahoitusmarkkinakriisejä koskevaa lainsäädäntöuudistusta valmistellut työryhmä.

Kuluttajien näkemykset taloudesta ennallaan maaliskuussaTilastokeskus
Kuluttajien arviot omasta taloudesta yhä synkätTalSa
EK: Suhdanne yhä heikko – kotimarkkina-aloilla notkahdusTalSa

Valtio jatkaa palkkajohtajanaJouko Marttila

Suomessa täystyöllisyys = Työttömyys 8%?Roger Wessman

Euro on politiikkaa ja talouttaThe Ulkopolitist.

Hollannin populistijohtaja haluaisi perussuomalaiset mukaan EU-vastustajien yhteisrintamaanYLE

FK jyrähtää: Näpit irti TalletussuojarahastostaTE

Euroalueen luottokehitys yhä kehnoaRoger Wessman

Talouskriisin syyt ovat syvemmälläAntero Vartia / US

Suuri kiristys: AlkuTimo Harakka
Uusin kirjani, Suuri kiristys, ilmestyy virallisesti huomenna, 27.3. 2014. Maistiaisiksi julkaisen kirjan alun, josta ilmenee, mikä pakotti minut tähän urakkaan.