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Tuesday, March 4

4th Mar - ECB ahead, US budget, Fed moving to tighten

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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What Does the ECB’s ‘Sterilization’ Program Do?WSJ
One option that has gained ground in recent weeks is for the ECB to suspend its nearly four-year-old policy of draining funds from euro-zone banks on a weekly basis, a process known as sterilization.

Euro Area — “deflation” versus “lowflation”iMFdirect
So far there is no sign of classic deflation, i.e., of widespread, self-feeding, price declines. But even ultra low inflation can be problematic for the euro area as a whole and for financially stressed countries, where it implies higher real debt stocks and real interest rates, less relative price adjustment, and greater unemployment. Along with Japan’s experience, which saw deflation worm itself into the system, this argues for a more pre-emptive approach by the ECB.

Industrial producer prices down by 0.3% in euro areaEurostat

Fed Talk Shifts to Higher RatesTim Duy’s Fed Watch
The timing of the first rate hike and the subsequent tightening is dependent upon the consensus on overshooting.  If wage growth starts to accelerate, the Fed's focus will shift from fears of too much to too little slack.  If they are concerned about overshooting, they will need to accelerate the tightening time line.  Where Yellen ultimately falls on the issue is critical.

A Better Rule for Predicting Fed PolicyWSJ
Adding job growth to monetary policy models that rely on the unemployment rate alone make them better predictors of Federal Reserve policy over time, a Cleveland Fed paper released Tuesday finds.

Seven things you absolutely need to know about Obama’s budgetWaPo
Explore 60 years of budget deficits in one chartWaPo

Five basic questions about Obama’s budget that you were not afraid to ask WaPo

Why Were Some Emerging-Market Countries Hit Harder by Taper Talk?WSJ
Emerging-market nations that fared worst during 2013's so-called "Taper Tantrum" were those whose financial houses were in some level of disorder, a new paper from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco argues.
How much longer?The Money Illusion
Some questions for various old monetarists, Austrians, gold bugs, and other conservatives:

Global manufacturing on the rise despite crisesTradingFloor
Mads Koefoed: There may be abundant risks potential headwinds for the global economy but manufacturing is still expanding at a moderate pace, which continues to point to a pick-up in growth this year.

The Great Divide over Market EfficiencyInstitutional Investor

Hedge-Fund Genius Isn't Really Sold on Hedge FundsView / BB

The Nobel committee decided to split the economic prize between Eugene Fama and Robert Shiller – and that’s okay.

FX Board for March 4, 2014: Wherefore art thou, volatility?TradingFloor
John J Hardy: The major currencies are trying to unwind the recent reaction to developments in Ukraine, a development that continues to leave trend followers in the lurch. Perhaps upcoming event risks can provide a directional signal.

Great Graphic: Euro and Yen and S&P 500Marc to Market

Onko valtion velkaantuminen vaaraksi?Sixten Korkman / HS

Hypolta synkkä arvio asuntomarkkinoistaVerkkouutiset

Rupla ja Suomen vientiRoger Wessman

Insinööri Pekka Lonka kertoo, kuinka Nokian ihme luotiin ja tuhottiinHS
Nokia teki kahdenkymmenen viime vuoden aikana ihmeen kännyköiden valmistajana. Nyt kännykät on myyty ja tuhannet ihmeen tekijöistä ovat työttöminä. Yksi heistä on insinööri Pekka Lonka.

Pääkirjoitus 4.3.2014: Kriisissä euro käy kalliiksiIL
Yhteisvaluutta toimii - mutta vain hyvän sään aikana.

Putin: Eivät ole venäläisjoukkoja - Suomen Sotilas: 99 prosentin todennäköisyydellä VDV:n erikoistoimintamiehiäVerkkouutiset

”Strutsipolitiikan” loppu ja Suomen ”realitycheck”Arto Luukkanen / US