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Monday, September 10

10th Sep - EU Open: Calendar Ahead!

Still missing few entries, but posting anyways and updating later. I translated Bruce Krasting’s piece to Finnish and posted it in the Finnish blogosphere – it attracted several high-quality comments. It will be a heavy week event-wise, but I'm not expecting shocks similar to the ECB's bomb last week. Luckily today seems like a day without significant events and everyone has time to catch their breath and think what all this means. I'm scared that the more people think about these things, the more they will see the holes I have been writing about...

Previously on MoreLiver’s:
8.9. Weekender: Weekly Support (last week’s review, next one previewed)

All the coverage on ECB’s decision is in my ECB Watch-post (continuously updated).

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News roundup – Between The Hedges
The 6am Cut London – alphaville / FT
Emerging Markets Headlines – beyondbrics / FT

TV: Bloomberg, BBC
Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices

Asia today: Has China got anything left? Latest data uninspiringSaxo Bank
China released the initial tranche of its August data at the weekend and the rather non-descript results led to a slightly weaker tone for the AUD at the start of trading this week. Imports fell a hefty 2.6% y/y raising concerns about Oz ore exports.

Morning Briefing (Asia): – BNY Mellon

Market Preview: EU investor confidence on tapSaxo Bank
European markets are expected to open lower Monday on concerns about the Greek coalition government's failure to decide on a final package of spending cuts and ahead of Eurozone investor confidence due later today.

Danske DailyDanske Bank (pdf)
No major market movers today. Focus is likely to move from ECB action and increased likelihood of Fed QE3 to upcoming events (risk factors) and in particular the FOMC meeting on Thursday, the German constitutional court ruling on  ESM and elections in  the Netherlands (both on Wednesday). Today’s data releases include French industrial production and Italian final Q2 GDP figures, which are expected to be weak and will probably not  contribute to keep last week’s rally going. Greek Prime Minister Samaras meets the Troika today.

Morning Briefing (EU/US): Port in a stormBNY Mellon
Despite growing doubts over the AUD, we understand those who believe it has more to give. But the CAD is the better option

AamukatsausNordea (pdf)
Euroalueella poliittiset päätökset valokeilassa * Työpaikkojen hidas kasvu kääntänee Fedin lisäelvytyksen kannalle * EURUSD lähes neljän kuukauden huippuihin elvytysodotusten myötä 

AamukatsausTapiola (pdf)
Odotukset keskuspankkien elvytystoimista vahvistuneet heikkojen makrotilastojen myötä. Tällä viikolla tärkeitä päätöksiä: keskiviikkona Saksan perustuslakituomioistuin EVM:stä ja torstaina FED.  Markkinan suunta: Markkinoilla poimitaan rusinat pullasta, USA:n heikko työmarkkinaraportti nosti osakkeita elvytystoiveiden kasvaessa. Viikonlopun aikana julkaistut tilastot Kiinasta kertovat hidastumisen jatkuneen edelleen hieman odotuksia nopeampana. Viikon mielenkiintoisimmat tapahtumat: 12.9. Saksan perustuslakituomioistuin ja 13.9. FED.


The Tragedy of the European Union and How to Resolve ItThe New York Review of Books
George Soros with a very long piece: In short, the current situation is like a nightmare that can be escaped only by waking up Germany and making it aware of the misconceptions that are currently guiding its policies. We can hope Germany, when put to the choice, will choose to exercise benevolent leadership rather than to suffer the losses connected with leaving the euro.

Things That Make You Go HmmmGrant Williams / ZH
The latest edition of the newsletter comments the ECB: Draghi has temporarily released the pressure on Europe’s peripherals, but he has had to go beyond to the very edge of his mandate. What happens next is open to debate but the Eurocrats are bound to find a way to ensure we have no more than a few days of relative calm ahead of us.

Now it’s back to Europe’s politiciansMacrobusiness
As I have continued to talk about over this year, without a massive change in direction, the economic outcomes of Europe have already been decided. Attempts at supra-Eurozone fiscal consolidation all but guarantee a fall in economic output for the EZ, and the recession has really only just begun. In that regard it is the politics that will become increasingly important over the next 12 months as the economic fallout opens new fractures in the political systems of participating nations.

Key Eurozone CDS spreads hit 2012 lowsSober Look

Weekly ChartopiaZH
Good charts from a recent Goldman Sachs note

Debt Be Not ProudJohn Mauldin / The Big Picture
How Down Can Be Up If You Create the Rules * The Fed to the Rescue? * The Correlation Between Government Size and Growth * Debt Be Not Proud * Debt Overhangs: Past and Present * Should the Fed Give Us QE3?

The Consensus Moves Towards a QE3 Announcement This WeekPragCap

FX Comment: back to limitedNordea
What ECB’s Draghi did to markets last week was nothing short of spectacular ...Fed will definitely not go “unlimited”, but some sort of QE3, in a combination with extended forward guidance, seems very likely now.

Five Years Since The Great Financial Crisis: "No Growth, No Deleveraging"ZH
Charts and couple of paragraphs from Deutsche Bank

Economists have underestimated the severity of structural shift in US employment dynamicsSober Look

En ole huolestunut inflaatiosta, en EKP:n tappioista, en velkakirjojen ostosta – olen huolestunut siitä mitä EKP:n ohjelma tarkoittaa itsenäisyydelletyhmyri

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