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Thursday, September 27

27th Sep - US Open: Spanish Budget

Budget time. Banks tomorrow. The confusion regarding ESM eligibility seems to be a big issue, after the FANG-countries announced something. Nobody is sure what it means, so you'll have to read for yourself.

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Roundups & Commentary
US Opening News And Market Re-Cap – Ransquawk / ZH
Frontrunning – ZH
Sentiment Better As China Joins Global Easing Fest... Sort Of – ZH
The Lunch Wrap – alphaville / FT
Emerging N.Y. headlines – beyondbrics / FT
Today’s front pages – presseurop
Daily press summary – Open Europe
  Spanish government to unveil new austerity budget amid continuing protests; Catalan President: Referendum on independence will happen with or without Madrid’s consent

Morning MarketBeat: The Stall-Speed Economy – WSJ
Broker Note Briefing – WSJ
Morning Take-Out – NYT
AM Dear Dairy: Bounce – Macro and Cheese
Short Note on Market Developments – Marc to Market
The T Report: Budgets and Bailouts – TF Market Advisors

US session ahead
Pre-market Commentary – Marketwatch
Pre-Market Trading – CNNMoney
Pre-Market – NASDAQ
US Equity Preview – Bloomberg
Earnings & Events – The Street
MarketCurrents – Seeking Alpha

TV: Bloomberg, BBC
Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices

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Can struggling eurozone countries achieve the necessary ‘internal devaluation’ and at what political cost?Open Europe

Fresh sentiment numbers point to deepening Euro-zone recessionNordea
Today’s broad Euro-zone economic sentiment indicator for September did not imply the performance of the Euro-zone economy would improve any time soon.

Van Rompuy swings, and misses, for the ECBBrussels Blog / FT
The ongoing saga of the European Central Bank’s empty seat on its six-member executive board appears to be, well, ongoing.

A European fudge, now in focusalphaville / FT
The divisions over whether the ESM should shoulder the burden of existing impaired bank assets is a serious one, and could get worse.

What’s the fuss about direct ESM bank recapitalisation?Danske Bank (pdf)
On 25 September, the finance ministers of Germany, the Netherlands and Finland issued a joint statement putting forward two important principles. First, they reiterated that “direct ESM bank recapitalisation...can only take place once the single supervisory mechanism is established and its effectiveness determined”. Second, the finance ministers stated that “the ESM can take direct responsibility of problems that occur under the new supervision, but legacy assets should be under the responsibility of national authorities”.

Spanish Bank Deposit Outflow Surge Continues In AugustZH

Spain’s Budget – Live details and reactionThe World / FT
He has many audiences to please: other Eurozone partners; central banking institutions; the Spanish people; regional separatists, to name a few. We can expect strong reaction, from the market and from the street, to announcements of further austerity measures which could either hasten or delay Spain’s call for a bail-out from its European partners.

A Spanish shopping listalphaville / FT
JPM and Nomura on Spain’s budget

Spain is in Troublenaked capitalism

(audio) BizDaily: Catalans go it alone?BBC (mp3)
Catalans are to vote next month whether to separate from Spain. But does it make economic sense for them and for Europe? And is an MBA worth the money? Plus - what it takes to be an entrepreneur in Africa.

QE+ Projections: Where does it End?Marc to Market

Is the US too close to the fiscal cliff?Saxo Bank

Nordea Risk PerceptionNordea (pdf)
Full-scale “risk-off” yesterday on the back of steady negative news flow topped with core countries making a tougher stance on ESM * Finally spilling over to vol markets, thereby materializing in Nordea Risk Perception as well * Rates and Commodity components maintain low correlation with overall NRPI * While Spain/Greece are critical drivers for short term risk sentiment, we see scope for lower FX and rates (gamma) vols towards year end.

HSBC: This is now about structural woealphaville / FT
Stephen King’s team at HSBC: thoughts about the
UK’s productivity puzzle, the US jobless recovery, the pointlessness of QE and whether a structural shift may under way.

Great Graphic: Gold in Different CurrenciesMarc to Market

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