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Monday, September 17

17th Sep - US Open: Breather

Plenty of market commentary and views in the Other section.
All the coverage on ECB’s decision is in my ECB Watch-post (continuously updated). The Federal Reserver’s QE3 is in Fed Extra.

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Roundups & Commentary
US Opening News And Market Re-Cap – Ransquawk / ZH
Frontrunning – ZH
Overnight Sentiment DB, GS / ZH
The Lunch Wrap – alphaville / FT
Emerging N.Y. headlines – beyondbrics / FT
Today’s front pages – presseurop
Daily press summary – Open Europe
  New poll finds 65% of Germans believe they would be better off without the euro; Twenty years later, 64% of French would vote against the Maastricht Treaty

Morning MarketBeat: Everything’s Great, Apart from Everything That’s Not – WSJ
Broker Note Briefing – WSJ
Morning Take-Out – NYT
AM Dear Dairy: Mixed Start – Macro and Cheese
Skepticism Due to Misdiagnosis Marc to Market
The T Report: The Rule of 3 – TF Market Advisors

US session ahead
Pre-market Commentary – Marketwatch
Pre-Market Trading – CNNMoney
Pre-Market – NASDAQ
US Equity Preview – Bloomberg
Earnings & Events – The Street
MarketCurrents – Seeking Alpha

TV: Bloomberg, BBC
Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices

On banking union, speak the truthCharles Wyplosz /
The European Commission presented their plan for a single EZ bank supervisor this weekend. While it is a good start, this column argues that it avoids the hard truth driving the process: the Eurozone needs a lender of last resort and the ECB is the only one that can play the role. Admitting this truth makes it clear that the Eurozone also needs an arrangement with member governments on bank-bailouts cost sharing and institutions to minimise the ultimate costs.

A five-step guide to European banking unionbruegel
Discussions on concrete proposals will start soon. They are bound to be highly complex, technical and controversial, because mistrust prevails and because participant countries hold very different views. However, it is important they succeed, so here is our five-point guide for the negotiators (1. Be comprehensive 2. Don’t confuse legacy issues with permanent ones 3. Don’t get distracted 4. Plan for the worst 5. Get the incentives right)

Finance Industry Warns of ‘Cliff Effect’ in ECB’s Bond PlanBB

EU to limit controversial biofuels from 2020euobserver

No time for complacencyMacroScope / Reuters
unresolved differences between Germany and others over plans to build a banking union…Italian elections…it remains to be seen whether euro zone policymakers have learned from previous mistakes when they took their foot off the gas each time the crisis hit a lull.

Is QE3 Yet Another Stealth Bank Bailout?naked capitalism
So the Fed looks to be completely on board with this sort of rent-seeking. Perhaps the central bank believes its charges need more in the way of earnings to strengthen their balance sheets, even though history shows they prioritize executive bonuses over building their equity levels. Or maybe Bernanke was being completely truthful when he said QE3 was targeting employment. After all, fatter bank margins will preserve their staffing levels.

The One Chart To Explain The Real Effect Of QE3ZH
Barclays: bad economic news may not seem so horrible, if it is perceived to raise the probability of a market-friendly monetary policy response…But now that the monetary policy responses to economic weakness are in place, markets have had the good news.

China/Japan flareup: businesses feel the heatbeyondbrics / FT
Postcards From A Furious ChinaZH

China’s slowdown: Fed to the rescue?beyondbrics / FT
Of course, the main point of QE3 is to create jobs in the US. Jobs means consumer spending, and consumer spending means imports of Chinese-made goods. But there’s at least one group of people who don’t seem to see the glass as half full: equity investors. The Shanghai composite fell more than 2.1 per cent on Monday, the Shenzhen market dropped nearly 3 per cent

Profits of state-owned enterprises fell by 12.8% for Jan-AugustASA

Watch for storm clouds on the horizonHumble Student
Even though skies are clearing, there are two dark clouds ahead that appear ominous for the investor, namely the fiscal cliff and the risk of a crash landing in China…In the meantime, both the Fed and ECB are hosting a gigantic block party. There's lots of free food and drinks. I am sure that even the Chinese will be there. Go on and enjoy yourself. Just don't get so drunk that you get caught flat-footed when the cops raid the place.

Currency wars redux alphaville / FT
QE3 has set the dogs of FX verbal intervention loose (well, looser anyway) and it seems probable some actual shots may be fired in the coming while.

FX Comment: the hangover weekNordea

Equity Review: Week is one for the history books - 'QE Infinity'Saxo Bank
In Chairman Bernanke’s own words, the aim is to lift consumption by increasing asset prices, understood as houses and stocks. Then the growth will follow, or at least that is the plan. This part of the plan is probably not going to work and therefore at some point down the road we will see a stock correction. 

Weekly Market CommentHussman Funds
As of Friday, our estimates of prospective return/risk for the S&P 500 have dropped to the single lowest point we’ve observed in a century of data.

New financial forecasts: Central banks taking out the bigger gunsNordea
or instead of the summary, the full pdf

BIS Quarterly Review, September 2012BIS
this is the press release, doc here.

By 2015 hard commodity prices will have collapsedmpettis

IS paljastaa: Potilastietouudistukseen hassattu satoja miljoonia!IS
Sähköisten potilastietopalveluiden uudistamisessa on palanut rutkasti verorahaa: kaukomatkoja, juhlimista, konsultointia tyhjästä...

Katainen: Pankkivalvonnalla laaja kannatusYLE
Pääministeri Jyrki Katainen (kok.) sanoo uskovansa, että Euroopan pankkivalvonnalla on laaja kannatus. Kataisen mukaan valvonnan järjestämisessä on kuitenkin vielä paljon avoimia kysymyksiä.

Liikanen: EKP:n pöytäkirjojen salausaika liian pitkäTalSa
Suomen Pankin pääjohtaja Erkki Liikanen sanoo, että Euroopan keskuspankin neuvoston kokousten pöytäkirjojen 30 vuoden salausaika on liian pitkä. Hänen mukaansa pöytäkirjat pitää saada nopeammin julki.

Suomen pankkikriisi: missä päähenkilöt ovat nyt? (2001) – TalSa

Suomen maksuosuus EU:ssa kasvaaYLE
Suomen arvioidaan hallituksen budjettiesityksessä maksavan ensi vuoden EU-budjettiin ja Euroopan kehitysrahastoon 1 988 miljoonaa euroa...Saamapuolella Suomen valtiolle tulee EU:sta ensi vuonna arviolta 1 212 miljoonaa euroa.

Pääkirjoitus: 15.09.2012: Europaniikin huippu on ehkä ohitettu?IL
Kuntavaaleissa ei päätetä Suomen rahayksiköstä.

VM: Hallituksen alijäämätavoite jää saavuttamattaTalSa
Hallituksen budjettialijäämätavoite jää saavuttamatta, valtiovarainministeriö arvioi uudessa talouskatsauksessaan. Hallitusohjelmaan on kirjattu tavoite pienentää valtion budjettialijäämä yhteen prosenttiin bruttokansantuotteesta vuoteen 2015 mennessä. VM arvioi alijäämän kuitenkin olevan 2,1 prosenttia vuonna 2014.

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