All about
two things: the Fed’s possible QE and the ESM decision. So what if the ESM
ruling is delayed – it is still expected to pass - unless there is something
else, like a need to use the ESM in ways that are not exactly kosher.
Previously on MoreLiver’s:
Roundups
News
roundup – Between
The Hedges
The 6am Cut
London – alphaville
/ FT
Emerging
Markets Headlines – beyondbrics
/ FT
Reference
Debt
crisis: live – The
Telegraph
The Euro
Crisis Blog – WSJ
FX Options
Analytics – Saxo
Bank
European
10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices
The mild risk-off mood that permeated through
markets yesterday extended into today’s Asian session. We had a number of data
points, but only one was first-tier but had little impact on the day’s
activity.
Despite growing doubts over the AUD, we understand those who believe it
has more to give. But the CAD is the better option
Market Preview: US trade balance on tap – Saxo Bank
Market Preview: US trade balance on tap – Saxo Bank
European markets are expected to open lower
Tuesday ahead of the German
Constitutional Court's ESM ruling tomorrow. Investors are also keeping an eye on the US trade balance due
today and the Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for later this week.
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank (pdf)
ECB’s Jorg Asmussen gives what could turn out
to be a very interesting speech about “Stability guardians and crisis managers:
central banking in the crisis and beyond” at the Institute for Monetary and
Financial Stability of Goethe Universität
in Frankfurt. Markets will be sensitive to signals about the outcome of the Karlsruhe court ruling on ESM
tomorrow and the likelihood Fed QE3 on Thursday.
Morning
Briefing (EU/US): Distant
horizons – BNY Mellon
The ECB bond buying program is a step in the right direction, nothing more
The ECB bond buying program is a step in the right direction, nothing more
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
(pdf)
Saksan
perustuslakituomioistuimen päätös ESM:stä voi viivästyä * EKP:n valtionlainojen
osto-ohjelma paransi sijoittajien luottamusta talouteen * LME-indeksi uusiin 4
kk huippuihin metallimarkkinoiden vahvan vireen myötä
Aamukatsaus – Tapiola (pdf)
Aamukatsaus – Tapiola (pdf)
Osakemarkkinalla
eilisen päätteeksi laskurekyyli, kun uutiset Kreikasta ja Espanjasta saivat
markkinat epävarmoiksi. Tikkurilalta (TOP-5) aamulla positiivinen tulosvaroitus.
Yrityslainoissa korkoriski nousussa: korkeamman riskin HY-lainat edelleen
mielenkiintoisia. Ulkomaalaisomistusten muutokset – riskiä ostettu hieman
elokuussa: Myyntiputkessa: Amer Sports, Neste Oil, Nokia. Ostoputkessa: UPM-Kymmene.
EUROPE
Democracy loses in struggle to save euro – Gideon
Rachman / FT
By promising “unlimited” purchases of sovereign
bonds, Mario Draghi, the ECB’s president, may have kept his pledge to do
“whatever it takes” to save the euro. But in rescuing the currency, Mr Draghi’s
magic bullet has badly wounded something even more important – democracy in Europe.
The current EZ crisis is not Europe’s first sovereign- debt crisis.
This column shows parallels can be drawn from an all-but-forgotten episode,
i.e. the 1990 Faroese crisis. Just like Greece, the Faroes got into
difficulty because of excess borrowing facilitated by a currency union with an
AAA-rated partner undeterred as the sovereign debt spiralled upwards. In the
Faroese case, the crisis was eventually resolved when political necessities
outweighed the cost of the bailout.
USA
Do You Believe In P/E Miracles? – ZH
2012 S&P500 rise driven by multiple
expansion, not earnings
Is US economic growth over? – Robert J. Gordon / voxeu.org
Global growth is slowing – especially in
advanced-technology economies. This column argues that regardless of cyclical
trends, long term economic growth may grind to a halt. Two and a half centuries
of rising per-capita incomes could well turn out to be a unique episode in
human history.
Nick Colas, ConvergEx: Retail Investors And
Financial Literacy
– ZH
Investors, Nostalgic For Logical Markets,
Boycott New Centrally-Planned Normal
ASIA
UBS Asia: is the miracle over – ZH
After two decades of unparalleled economic
success, we believe China now needs a reform
programme on a scale similar to that adopted 30 years ago. Without it, a
heavily investment-centric and credit-intensive economic model could soon
become unstable, and later stall in a middle income trap. (full 29-page document download)
China’s Xi Vanishes; Where is the Man Rumored to Lead China Next Month? China Having Second
Thoughts? What's the Worst That Could Happen? – Mish’s
A regime change in China is slated for next
month. Yet Xi Jinping, the man rumored to be the next leader is missing in
action. It is not uncommon for Chinese leaders to disappear from public life
for extended periods, but it is uncommon for them to disappear smack in front
of a regime change.