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Tuesday, September 4

4th Sep - EU Open: Moody's warns

Moody's negative statement on EU due to the commission's powers to loan money in the names of the member countries. Some pretty decent markets-related links at the bottom, and one particularly nasty opinion in Finnish. 

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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News roundup – Between The Hedges
The 6am Cut London – alphaville / FT
Emerging Markets Headlines – beyondbrics / FT

TV: Bloomberg, BBC
Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices

Asia today Saxo Bank
The RBA left rates unchanged at 3.5 percent, as expected, though the economy is running close to trend. It noted that previous rate cuts are still working their way through the economy and consumption has been “quite firm” in the first half of year

Morning Briefing (Asia)BNY Mellon
North American FX Trading Dead on US Holiday, Tensions between Iran and Israel continue to rise 

Market Preview: US ISM manufacturing PMI eyedSaxo Bank
European markets are expected to open flat Tuesday as investors await an ECB meeting later this week. Yesterday, ECB President Draghi opined that short term sovereign bond purchases would not breach EU rules. US ISM manufacturing PMI is also eyed. 

Danske Daily Danske Bank (pdf)
Asian markets are slightly lower overnight following US Labor day. ECB president Draghi indicates that the ECB is free to buy 2-3 year bonds. The Reserve Bank of Australia stays on hold, but indicates easing bias. Moody’s cuts its outlook on the European Union to negative. Focus today is on US ISM manufacturing and European policy meetings 

Morning Briefing (EU/US): “Black Gold, Texas Tea”BNY Mellon
Considering the market implications of rising tensions in the Middle East.

AamukatsausNordea (pdf)
Draghi: Lyhyiden valtionlainojen ostot EKP:n mandaatin mukaisia * Ruotsin teollisuuden luottamus romahti – Isossa-Britanniassa reipasta nousua * Hitaasti kiiruhtaen – uudet Talousnäkymät julki tänään 

AamukatsausTapiola (pdf)
Voimakkaasti heikentynyt teollisuuden luottamus Ruotsissa on varoitussignaali suomalaisille yrityksille, jotka toimivat pitkälti samoilla markkinoilla kuin ruotsalaiset teollisuusyritykset. Markkinan suunta: Osake- ja hyödykemarkkinat nousivat eilen yllättävän vahvasti, vaikka makrodatasta saatava uutisvirta oli heikkoa. Draghin EKP:n mahdollisia lyhytaikaisten velkakirjojen ostoon liittyviä tukitoimia käsittelevä puhe antoi tukea eurolle (alle 3v valtion bondien ostot OK, mutta taas 15v ei). EU-komissaari Olli Rehn kiirehtii EMU 2.0:aa eurokriisin kärjistyessä. Osakefutuurit lievästi plussalla, indikoiden nousuavausta.


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Moody's Downgrades European Union To Outlook NegativeZH
see the full text, the logic is important to understand. Alphaville / FT had a shorter summary, and for the dandy you can always refer to the original text on Moody’s.

On Volatility, Correlation, And Sentiment ShiftsZH
Nice SPX correlation statistics and discussion

Chinese and EZ PMI’s disappoint yet againKiron Sarkar / The Big Picture
daily global roundup published at an odd time due to US holiday

The Australian dollar is still vulnerable to the downsideSober Look
Sales, construction, exports, credit growth, rate cuts, copper prices are all negatives

The Fed, QE 3, and the Worsening European Economic CrisisThe Daily Capitalist
The die may thus be cast for a major money-printing effort from the ECB, perhaps as soon as the German Constitutional Court (presumably) finds for the central planners on September 12 in a long-awaited decision about whether the European Stability Mechanism is legal under German law. Assuming that the ECB once again creates new money, we could see the Fed “print money” as it did last fall when the ECB introduced the LTRO.  This is a form of QE under a different name.

SocGen: The 2 Biggest Risks to the Global EconomyPragCap
Earnings growth expectations & oil shock

Three Charts to Watch for Signs of What’s to ComeGains & Pains
Gold & silver at the top of their ranges, dollar at the rising trendline. Will markets reverse, or is a breakout coming? What happens next will determine the true state of affairs for the financial system.

Euro tuhoaa suomalaisten eläkkeetOlli Pusa / US Puheenvuoro
Kuntarahoituksen entinen toimitusjohtaja Olli Pusa on ehkä eurovastaisimpia kommentaattoreita joita olen nähnyt. Uskomatonta, että joku uskaltaa sanoa, mitä mieltä on asioista.

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