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Monday, September 3

3rd Sep - EU Open: Bad China, Closed US

US holiday, so probably a quiet day. During the weekend I posted on full turboboost, please see them as there were several gems in there. This week it will be the ECB rumors and in the US the unemployment numbers on Friday. Thus I would not be surprised to see quiet range-trading and minor sell-offs in risk markets. Have a good week!

Previously on MoreLiver’s:
31.8. Best of August most read pieces + all my ’views’

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News roundup – Between The Hedges
The 6am Cut London – alphaville / FT
Emerging Markets Headlines – beyondbrics / FT

TV: Bloomberg, BBC
Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices

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Asia today: Asian PMIs continue the weak tone; Risk holds up wellSaxo Bank
The first of the global manufacturing PMI reports confirmed what we already suspected – a slowing global marketplace. China's PMI fell below 50 for the first time since November 2011 yet risk/equities found comfort from Wall Street's Friday rally.

Morning Briefing (Asia): – BNY Mellon

Market Preview: Eyes on PMI across EuropeSaxo Bank
European stocks are expected to open flat Monday following a contraction in China's manufacturing activity for August. Investors also await Eurozone manufacturing PMI data and Draghi's speech due later today.

Danske DailyDanske Bank (pdf)
Bernanke left the door open for QE3, but September easing is not a done deal. Asian equity markets are generally higher overnight – despite a weak Chinese PMI. Focus today is on European PMIs and comments ahead of Thursday’s ECB meeting. US markets are closed for Labor Day.

Morning Briefing (EU/US): The Year Of Living Dangerously BNY Mellon

Tensions between Iran and Israel continue to rise.

AamukatsausNordea (pdf)
Kiinan teollisuuden piristymistä saadaan yhä odottaa * Koronlaskun lisäksi EKP:ltä odotettavissa vain vähän lisätietoja osto-ohjelmasta *EURUSD heikkeni Bernanken puheen myötä hieman kahden kuukauden huipustaan

AamukatsausTapiola (pdf)
FED:n Bernanken perjantaina pitämä puhe oli markkinoille melko odotettu ja sisälsi melko vahvoja signaaleja elvytyksen jatkumisesta. Osake- ja hyödykemarkkinat nousivat perjantaina. Markkinan suunta: Osake- ja hyödykemarkkinat nousivat, kun FED:n Bernanken perjantainen puhe tyydytti markkinoiden odotukset elvytyksestä. Reaalitalouden puolella Kiinan ostopäällikköindeksit osoittavat talouden hidastumisen jatkuneen yhä voimakkaampana. Lyhyen ja pitkän aikavälin sijoittamisen yhdistäminen: Nyt hyviä ostoja: Outotec, Nokian Renkaat, Tikkurila, Metso, Metsä Board. Nyt hyvä aika myydä: Neste Oil, Finnair, Ahlstrom, Sampo, Fiskars.

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Spain’s July peripheral bank depositsibexsalad
of the 178 billion decrease in non-MFI deposits in Spanish banks, two-thirds is accounted for by a decrease in term deposits and 22 percent by a decline in repurchase agreements that fall under 'deposits'. Demand deposits have remained virtually flat. (so not that bad?)

Sentiment indicators point to a deepening recession in the Eurozone, including "core" economiesSober Look

Alarming parallels between current Middle East tensions and events leading up to WWISober Look
JPMorgan's commodities analysts draw some frightening parallels between the current Israel - Iran tensions and the events leading up to World War I… Based on the fact that such a conflict risks becoming far broader and deadlier than the early assessments, JMorgan's view is that oil prices would spike initially but would then decline below current levels as global demand comes to a halt.

Employment Data Ahead Tim Duy’s Fed Watch
If we believe Lockhart, Bernanke's speech was less of a signal than the general consensus would believe.  But if we believe Bullard, the FOMC is moving in the direction of additional easing in any event.  Greater than 50% odds, but still a close call?  Sounds about right.  The employment report could ramp the odds up to 80%, or push us back to the break even point.

FX Comment: something’s cooking?Nordea
short piece discusses the CB balance sheet differences as a driver for EURUSD, China’s prospects as a driver for AUDUSD. Quick and worth it.

China’s PMI fell again
China - PMIs suggest growth remains subdued in Q3 – Danske Bank (pdf)
Bleeding industrial sector puts pressure on additional stimuli – Nordea
HSBC/Markit China manufacturing PMI shows further contraction in August – ASA
China PMI Falls by Most since 2009 – PragCap
Market Response 'Bad Is Good' So Far – ZH
China New Export Orders Drop Most Since March 2009, Operating Conditions Down 10th Consecutive Month; China's Export Machine Grind to a Halt – Mish’s

Darker Chinese clouds – alphaville / FT

China: no joy in PMI numbers – beyondbrics / FT

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