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Tuesday, September 11

11th Sep - US Close: Waiting...

SPX trapped in range but EURUSD reaching higher towards the 1.30-level.  The banking union plan has been completely leaked, and ze Germans will surely vote ja on the ESM and the fiscal pact - so the only open question now is the Fed...Plenty of QE already priced in, so "selling the news", especially with EURUSD could make a lot of sense.

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Previously on MoreLiver’s:

All the coverage on ECB’s decision is in my ECB Watch-post (continuously updated).

Roundups and Commentary
Markets – Between The Hedges
The Closer – alphaville / FT
US Summary ZH 
  Dow Closes At Highest Since 2007 As High Yield Outperforms
Tomorrow’s Tape – MarketBeat / WSJ
Morning Briefing (Asia) – BNY Mellon
  ECB bond buying program is a step in the right direction, nothing more

TV: Bloomberg, BBC
Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices

German Constitutional Court Ruling: Here’s What to Expect MarketBeat / WSJ
There’s an overwhelming consensus that predicts the Court will affirm the bailout funds, while perhaps hoping to renegotiate some other stipulations for additional say on future aid. But should they block it, there could be some serious ramifications

Another Eventful Week in the Euro AreaPIIE
Progress Toward a Banking Union * The German Constitutional Court * No Stumbling Block in Dutch Elections

Why the ECB’s Latest Plan Will FailPragCap
This plan still fails to address the primary issue which is the lack of a rebalancing mechanism.   The austerity is the antithesis of rebalancing.  So while the solvency issue is being addressed by bringing private bidders back to bond markets it is almost guaranteed to be offset by the fact that these countries still aren’t going to experience growth that makes their debts sustainable.  So this crisis will flare up again at some point if a permanent fix isn’t implemented.  This latest “fix” buys them some time, but is really nothing more than a kick of the can.

Volatility and the OMTalphaville / FT
Will the ECB support price levels from the LTRO? Also, Draghi said volatility is one factor they watch

Spanish home prices fell 11.6% YoYZH
now back to 2003 levels...

No wriggling out of troubleFree exchange / The Economist
The president of the EEA, Jordi Gali, used his presidential address to discuss the merits of “wage flexibility” over the business cycle. The implications of his presentation for Europe are worrying, to say the least.

Stability guardians and crisis managers: central banking in times of crisis and beyondECB
Speech Jörg Asmussen

Lagarde Lying?Bruce Krasting
Different story for surplus and deficit countries. Which one is wrong, or both?

Portugal’s government presses the economic self-destruct buttonqfinance
Today the Portuguese government will receive the details of the latest troika (IMF,ECB,European Commission) or men in black review of their economy. There is little or no danger of them concluding that Portugal is not doing her best to hit the fiscal targets given to her as in Portugal there has been virtually no dissent.

The 'forgotten man' of the euro crisis catches a break...Open Europe
Troika has decided to give Portugal one extra year to make the budget cuts agreed under its bailout programme.

Portugal: Troika Statement on the Fifth Review MissionIMF
The program remains broadly on track…But reaching the new deficit targets will require additional consolidation efforts.

Reviewing QE(s) and Operation TwistThe Big Picture

QE Timeline UpdateCalculated Risk

The Market Is Expecting $850 Billion NEW QEZH

QE In PerspectiveZH
Charts from Credit Suisse and Barclays

Moody’s Warns on U.S. Debt Rating Ahead of Fiscal CliffMarketBeat / WSJ
Moody’s update on US rating, threatens downgradealphaville / FT

Art Cashin Remembers 9/11ZH

9/11 Articles, past and present (2011) – MoreLiver’s Daily

People’s Bank of China’s “aggregate financing” statisticsASA
Katainen Espanjassa: Uudet tukipaketit vältettävissäHS

Katainen Madridissa: "EU tarvitsee tiukempaa talouskuria" - TalSa
Kataisen mukaan EU:n hyväksymiä talouskuriin tähtääviä sääntöjä on noudatettava tiukemmin kaikissa unionimaissa. Myös komission roolia on vahvistettava.

Katainen: Espanjan kilpailukyvyn tukeminen tärkeää - TalSa
Katainen katsoo, että Espanjan tulisi pyrkiä välttämään Euroopan keskuspankin EKP:n velkakirjaostojen varaan jättäytymistä.

Saksan valtiovarainministeri: Eurokriisi jatkuu vielä kuukausiaTalSa
Saksan valtiovarainministerin Wolfgang Schäublen mukaan eurokriisi varjostaa taloustilannetta. Kriisi ei hänen mukaansa ole ohi, vaan jatkuu vielä kuukausia.

Pysyväisluontoinen taantuma Hannu Visti

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