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Tuesday, September 18

18th Sep - US Open: Testing 1-2

Slight recoil in risk markets - SPX and EURUSD coming down a bit and trying to test support levels, and discussion is again moving to the political situation in US (i.e. can the congress solve the fiscal cliff or not - estimated impact of no solution is 5%/GDP). Again I remind you that a dip from current levels will incite a round of comments from the talking heads, and the current dip should be eyed as a buying opportunity. Spanish 10-year bond rose to near 6%, and that is probably the critical level to watch.

Currently updated collections: ECB Watch and Fed Extra.
Previously on MoreLiver’s:
17.9. US Close: Realization (I really liked this)
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Roundups & Commentary
US Opening News And Market Re-Cap – Ransquawk / ZH
Frontrunning – ZH
Overnight Sentiment – DB / ZH
The Lunch Wrap – alphaville / FT
Emerging N.Y. headlines – beyondbrics / FT
Today’s front pages – presseurop
Daily press summary – Open Europe
  Germany wants separate body within the ECB to have final word on banking supervision

Morning MarketBeat: FedEx’s Ominous Bell – WSJ
Broker Note Briefing – WSJ
Morning Take-Out – NYT
AM Dear Dairy: Pullback – Macro and Cheese
Will the BOJ Do Whatever it Takes? – Marc to Market
– TF Market Advisors

US session ahead
Pre-market Commentary – Marketwatch
Pre-Market Trading – CNNMoney
Pre-Market – NASDAQ
US Equity Preview – Bloomberg
Earnings & Events – The Street
MarketCurrents – Seeking Alpha

TV: Bloomberg, BBC
Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices

We’ll settle this internal devaluation question quicker than we thoughtalphaville / FT
One of the criticisms of “internal devaluation” is that it’s a slower method of improving competitiveness than an old fashioned currency devaluation. There are also questions about whether it even works.

How Germany can avoid wealth losses if the Eurozone breaks up: Limit conversion to German
Paul De Grauwe, Yuemei Ji: Germany’s large accumulation of TARGET2 claims has created fear that Germany stands to lose vast amounts of wealth if the Eurozone were to break down. After clarifying the issues using basic economic principles, this column shows that Germany could avoid large wealth losses by restricting euro-to-mark conversions to German residents

Blogs review: The welfare state during times of economic crisisbruegel
This review focuses on the perspectives for welfare states, particularly in Europe, under conditions of government budget consolidation.

Danish Central Bank readies to go soloNordea (pdf)
Within the next three months the Danish central bank will make its first independent rate hike since 2008.

US Update: Fiscal cliff moves into focus Nordea (pdf)

U.S. Economic Trend Update | 9.18.12The Capital Spectator

Winners and Losers from Monetary PolicyFED / The Big Picture
The Fed seeks to support the economy as a whole, but some redistributional effects are unavoidable.

QE3 and OMT: No panacea but window of opportunity!Saxo Bank
Three big open issues: Fiscal cliff, US financial regulation, Eurozone

When Money DiesZH
Bob Janjuah / RBS: The Fed and the ECB are directing and attempting to orchestrate the grossest misallocation and mispricing of capital in the history of mankind.

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