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Monday, September 10

10th Sep - US Open: Eye of The Storm

Markets are completely dead - literally in the eye of the storm. Missing links to be updated soon.

Previously on MoreLiver’s:
8.9. Weekender: Weekly Support (last week’s review, next one previewed)

All the coverage on ECB’s decision is in my ECB Watch-post (continuously updated).

Roundups & Commentary
US Opening News And Market Re-Cap – Ransquawk / ZH
Frontrunning – ZH
Overnight Summary & Week Ahead – ZH
The Lunch Wrap – alphaville / FT
Emerging N.Y. headlines – beyondbrics / FT
Today’s front pages – presseurop
Daily press summary – Open Europe
  German MP launches last minute legal challenge demanding Constitutional Court takes new ECB bond-buying programme into account before Wednesday’s ESM ruling

Morning MarketBeat: Fed Hopes Running High – WSJ
Broker Note Briefing – WSJ
Morning Take-Out – NYT
AM Dear Dairy: All Quiet – Macro and Cheese
Eventful Week Begins Slowly – Marc to Market

The Bernanke Put is now the Bernanke Call?TF MarketAdvisors

US session ahead
Pre-market Commentary – Marketwatch
Pre-Market Trading – CNNMoney
Pre-Market – NASDAQ
US Equity Preview – Bloomberg
Earnings & Events – The Street
MarketCurrents – Seeking Alpha

TV: Bloomberg, BBC
Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices

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Spain and Italy mustn’t blow ECB planHugo Dixon / Reuters
For now, Draghi can withstand the criticism, as long as Angela Merkel keeps backing him. But if Rajoy and Monti don’t move fast, the ECB’s magic will wear off. And if its medicine then fails, it will be hard to conjure up the political will for an even more powerful concoction.

ECB death pact good for risk (6-Sep) – James Saft / Reuters
Becoming a lender of last resort then ultimately means that the ECB enters into a death pact, a sort of mutually assured destruction, with the states it rescues, as each can bring the other down. That may make Bundesbank fears of inflation and debasement correct, even if it doesn’t make their preferred course of policy wise. For investors it comes to the same thing; for now be more comfortable with a bit more risk but be prepared for that to change. Your main insurer is committed and owns a printing press, but death pacts can and do end badly.

Another euro zone week to reckon withMacroScope / Reuters
Despite Mario Draghi’s game changer, or potential game changer, the coming week’s events still have the power to shape the path of the euro zone debt crisis in a quite decisive way
 Here's the full proposal for an EU banking union (leaked)
The Commission's highly anticipated proposal for an EU Banking Union, due to be released on 12 September, has leaked (courtesy of Italian daily Il sore 24 ore). The full document can be read here.

German Court Decision on Bailout Fund Looms Over Euro CrisisBB
“I think the court will say this is something that Germany can manage,” Clemens Fuest, an economist at Oxford University’s Said Business School, said in a phone interview. Still, the court will likely take an interest in parliamentary involvement and “impose some conditions” on the ESM.

German Constitutional Court Approval of ESM Not a Done Deal; Draghi's Fatal Mistake?Mish’s
A year ago I think a referendum would have passed with flying colors. Now 54% of Germans Want the Constitutional Court to Kill the ESM…I had been thinking the court would easily approve the ESM, but with reservations. However, the OMT changed the odds quite a bit.

Italy and Spain 'must break down barriers to growth'bruegel
The Mediterranean countries are, once again, starting to fall behind. While this deepening rift may be partly due to the flawed design on the euro, there are clearly other factors as well that have kept the so-called PIGS – Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain – from catching up. Identifying the barriers to growth in those countries is therefore key.

Goldman Sachs Shakes Up Junior Staff in EuropeThe Source / NYT
GS has launched a reorganization of its analysts and associates in Europe, doing away with country-based and sector-based teams and creating two super groups focused on northern and southern Europe.

Economist Sinn Rattles Merkel Laboring to Save EuroBB
 “Sinn’s much more influential than any other private- sector economist in Germany,” says Fredrik Erixon, head of the European Centre for International Political Economy in Brussels. “His views reflect those of traditional Germans, whose anxieties about the flawed structure of the euro have been exacerbated by the crisis. He gets listened to by the cognoscenti of German policy making.”

The euro crisis should not stop enlargementeuobserver

Swedish industrial production – trend remains weakNordea
Industrial production in July increased by 0.3% m/m and decreased by 0.4% y/y. Today’s figures were stronger than we and consensus had in mind. Still, the overall trend in manufacturing remains weak.

China: Weak data open up for a second round of easing – Danske Bank (pdf)
China’s trade data for August point to weakening domestic demand – ASA
The anti-bailout China, sort of – ASA
China’s cash crunch: the numbers – beyondbrics / FT
China: trade figures signal slowdown – beyonbrics / FT
A Rorschach test, China Q3 data edition – alphaville / FT
  Another month, another round of mostly disappointing
China data. Not that everyone is overwhelmed by the gloom, as some are pointing to positive indicators in property as well...

Manufacturing Slowdown Intensifying The Short Side of the Long
We are witnessing strength in the equity markets around the world, while global economic growth continues to deteriorate towards stall speed and a potential recession. If one was to ask me why I think the equity markets continue to turn a blind eye towards fundamentals, the obvious answer would point towards investor hope of further stimulus by the Fed and ECB.

Expect the Fed to launch QE3 on ThursdayNordea
with estimated market reactions.

Equity Review: High flying PIGS as ECB pushed stocks higherSaxo Bank

Party on! (but watch out for the cops)Humble Student
The preliminary verdict of the market from Friday's NFP release is clear, party on! The signs of a cyclical turnaround were already in place. Now we have central bankers, first the ECB (and most likely the Federal Reserve next week), throwing a giant party.

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