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Wednesday, September 26

26th Sep - US Close

EDIT: posted a piece on Greece's possible future outside the EMU in Finnish.

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

Roundups and Commentary
Markets – Between The Hedges
The Closer – alphaville / FT 

Roundup – A View From My Screens 
Tomorrow’s Tape: Durable Good, Jobless Claims – WSJ

European Summary: Europe Goes Pear-Shaped – ZH
US Summary: Gold Holds As Equity Dead-Cat-Bounce Folds ZH
TV: Bloomberg, BBC
Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices

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Eurozone hawks deal blow to bank bailout planseuobserver
EU officials are in damage control mode after Germany, Finland and the Netherlands said the eurozone's new bailout fund should not take on old debt from bad banks.

Building the bridge to a stable European economyBIS (pdf)
Draghi at the annual event "Day of the German Industries", organised by the Federation of German Industries, Berlin, 25 September 2012.

ECB will not fill Greek budget gap: WeidmannReuters
Bundesbank Chief Jens Weidmann became the second ECB official on Wednesday to pour cold water on a Greek proposal for the European Central Bank to help Athens plug fiscal gaps by holding Greek sovereign bonds beyond their planned maturities.

Is This Why Europe Is Selling Off? ZH
It seems the road ahead is just as prone to mines as the road traveled and as we have seen again and again - while Germany (and her 'AAA'nxious friends) are happy to toe-the-line with jawboning and showing support verbally, once the need for real hard money comes to bear - it appears the faith is gone...

Germany clears last hurdle to ESM bailout fund ratificationReuters
Germany cleared the last legal hurdle to ratifying the euro zone's new bailout fund on Wednesday with a cabinet declaration that addresses concerns raised by the country's Constitutional Court.

Protests in Europe: Why the euro’s biggest problems haven’t gone awayWonkblog / WP

Markets spooked by Catalonia's push for independenceSober Look
IG CDX spread has widened sharply in the last couple of days as the corporate CDS index has become the choice to hedge against global macro risks.

In the picture: Is Spain unraveling?The World / FT
The political gulf opening up between Spain’s growing separatist movement in the richest province Catalonia and the government of Mariano Rajoy, backed by King Juan Carlos and the Spanish military, has spooked the markets and provoked much debate in the press about whether Spain can survive in its present form.

Rajoy Outlines Fresh OverhaulsWSJ Professional

Where Are The Bears?The Short Side of The Long
Long equity sentiment update

Keeping it realButtonwood / The Economist
David Woo of Bank of America Merrill Lynch has just released a fascinating note on quantitative easing (QE), bond yields and currencies, entitled "The precise meaning of diminishing returns". (Sorry, it is restricted circulation, so no link.) Mr Woo argues that the key factor driving currencies is not nominal yield differentials, as it has been in the past, but real yield differentials.

The bottleneckFree exchange / The Economist
The Fed's role can be viewed not as turning on the NGDP machine and creating more NGDP to distribute to private firms and households but as coordinating expectations across the private sector in order to arrive at a better equilibrium. If the Fed fails to play this coordinating role, the market may not be able to clear on its own. Firms are now building more and selling more, but we need them to build and sell a lot more if the stock of unemployed workers is to return to normal levels. But right now, firms are doing the equivalent of standing around saying to each other, "Well, I'll build a lot more if you buy a lot more", "Well, I'll buy a lot more, if you hire a lot more", and around and around. The Fed can and should put out word that now is the time for everyone to take the leap.

Delaying The U.S. Fiscal Cliff?BCA
Closed-door meetings are underway to delay the U.S. fiscal cliff. Nonetheless, uncertainty regarding fiscal policy is already undermining the economy and it could very well culminate in financial market riot points.

Itsenäisyyden luovuttamista ei tarvitse pelätä – edustaako ministeri Stubb puolueensa virallista linjaa?tyhmyri
Eurooppa-ministeri Alexander Stubb on viime aikoina antanut useita hyvin merkittäviä lausuntoja Suomen europolitiikasta. Viimeisimmässä hän käytännössä sanoo, että itsenäisyyden menettämistä ei tarvitse pelätä. En olisi aikoinaan uskonut, että suomalainen ministeri suhtautuu itsenäisyyteen yhtä kevytmielisesti.

Espanjan luvut viiraavat taas: tulot kutistuvat, menot paisuvatTE

Liikanen: Suomen Pankin puskurit riittävät kattamaan riskitYLE
Pääjohtaja Erkki Liikanen vakuuttaa, että Suomen Pankki pystyy hoitamaan sille mahdollisesti lankeavat tappiot EKP:n Espanja-tuesta (katso koko ohjelma).

EU-komissio tyrmää Suomen ja Saksan pankkivehtauksenTE
EU-komissio on keskiviikkona tyrmännyt Suomen, Saksan ja Hollannin julkilausuman, jonka mukaan Euroopan hätärahasto EVM ei voi auttaa kriisimaita ratkaisemaan vanhoja ongelmia

Irlannissa hämmennys: Muuttivatko Suomi, Saksa ja Hollanti EVM-sopimusta?TalSa

EVMn vivutus - ongelma EKPssä ?Juha Lehtinen / US Puheenvuoro

Laskelma tukee Björn Wahlroosia: ”Suomelle tarjolla maksajan rooli”US
EU:n pankkiunioni ja pankkien yhteisvastuullinen pääomittaminen olisivat lähinnä keski- ja eteläeurooppalaisten valtioiden etu. Väite perustuu vertailuun siitä, paljonko EU-maiden pankeilla on saamisia kriisimaista.

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