Google Analytics

Friday, September 28

28th Sep - Weekender: Best of The Week

Best ones from ending week's posts - happy weekends, I will not post again today, hope you'll all manage without me until tomorrow ;)

Previously on MoreLiver’s

Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter or Facebook 

Will Germans Pick Up the Tab for Deutsche Bank, Too?View / BB
Deutsche Bank is too big to fail both in terms of its direct involvement with the national economy and the potential knock-on effect on confidence in German industry. But the bank can fail in the sense that it could require future taxpayer assistance. To determine how likely this is -- and the scale of potential losses at any bank -- you need to answer three questions.

Buiter on good news, bad newsalphaville / FT
Good: ECB’s OMT, ESM agreements, pro-Europe election results. Bad: banking union talks. PIIGS.

Blogs review: OMT - Has the ECB solved the Euro Crisis?bruegel
Comprising of potentially unlimited purchases of government bonds, it is the largest ECB intervention so far. In the blogosphere, OMT is mainly evaluated as intended to prevent market panic from pushing otherwise solvent governments into bad equilibria, insolvency due to mounting interest payments. Criticism focuses on either conditionality requiring more austerity, stopping growth or on conditionality being not fully credible as OMT support cannot easily be withdrawn from non-compliant countries.

The Greek budget shortfall gets biggeralphaville / FT
Apparently that Greek shortfall is even bigger than the even bigger figure reported in the German press on Monday.

Bundesbank castigates IMF for saving EuropeThe Telegraph
Germany's central bank has launched a blistering attack on the IMF, accusing officials of spraying around money like confetti and overstepping their legal mandate.

Europe Pushed by IMF’s Lagarde to Consider Greek Debt Write-OffBB
No money until 2020 debt/GDP is below 120%.

Euro Zone Starts Talks Over Centralized BudgetWSJ
Euro-zone governments have begun discussions about creating a central budget for the currency union aimed at smoothing over some of the region's economic divergences, after Germany indicated support for the idea, European officials say.

A European fudge, now in focusalphaville / FT
The divisions over whether the ESM should shoulder the burden of existing impaired bank assets is a serious one, and could get worse.

European Commission's irrational fear of sovereign CDS markets is politically motivatedSober Look
Txhe CDS markets often act as a "canary in a coal mine", pointing to a specific credit weakness. CDS spreads provide transparency, particularly when transparency is not readily available from other less liquid markets. And many EU politicians and bureaucrats hate transparency because it puts their governments' poor practices on display.

The end of the euro’s Indian summerThe Economist
After a few sunny weeks, a political and economic storm is battering the euro zone once again

Quo Vadis Europe? A Euro crisis presentationNordea (pdf)

EUR convertibility premium: confidence trumps everythingNordea

Disregard This PostMoreLiver’s Daily
Collection of euro breakup- and exit analysis

Euro zone to boost bailout fund firepower to 2 trillion euros Reuters
Euro zone states are preparing to allow the bloc's permanent bailout fund to leverage its capital in the same way as its predecessor so it can reach a capacity of more than 2 trillion euros and rescue big countries if necessary, Der Spiegel said on Sunday.

ESM Fund Plans ‘Prudent’ Investments, May Buy Bank DebtBB

Why a Spanish Approach to the ESM Will HelpPIIE

Viva España? Spain’s other crisisalphaville / FT
There’s nothing like a financial crisis to bring out a surge of nationalism. In Spain’s case the situation is especially serious and seemingly getting worse. So much so that some argue that the growing constitutional crisis could soon eclipse the country’s fiscal problems. The two, you see, are very closely entwined.

Next Steps For SpainZH
nice calendar from RanSquawk

In the picture: Is Spain unraveling?The World / FT
The political gulf opening up between Spain’s growing separatist movement in the richest province Catalonia and the government of Mariano Rajoy, backed by King Juan Carlos and the Spanish military, has spooked the markets and provoked much debate in the press about whether Spain can survive in its present form.

A Spanish shopping listalphaville / FT
JPM and Nomura on Spain’s budget

Spain is in Troublenaked capitalism

What Spain Just Announced, And What Was Left UnsaidZH
BNP’s comments

Paul Volcker on Greedy Bankers, the Ryan Plan, and the FedNewsweek
Legendary economist Paul Volcker speaks out on what’s wrong with Wall Street today, the Ryan plan, and the Fed’s bold moves.

QE Infinity: Unintended ConsequencesJohn Mauldin / The Big Picture

Back Ben Bernanke's QE3 with a clothes peg on your noseThe Telegraph
Monetarists from across the world can mostly agree on one thing. The US Federal Reserve caused the Great Recession.

The Next PanicThe Atlantic
Europe’s crisis will be followed by a more devastating one, likely beginning in Japan…For ordinary Japanese, public promises about retirement benefits and price stability will be broken just as their private savings collapse…Our financial systems appear to be returning to their inherently unstable nature, which plagued the 19th and early 20th centuries.

Ray Dalio on QE3, Gold, China, Europe, Economy & More (Interview)market folly

Why you have to be very lucky to have average luckAaron Brown / Minyanville

Not time to get nervous (yet)Humble Student
Very nice technical overview of the major stock markets.

G10 Weekly: When QE becomes futileNordea (pdf)
The risk is that QE, instead of supporting aggregated demand, rather increases households´ propensity to save as real disposable income starts to fall.

G10 Weekly: To reiterate, QE will become futileNordea
You could argue that things are different this time, and I assure you we will take the other side of that bet. But let us go back to the notion of positive market reaction. Is this a sure thing? We doubt so and we have positioned ourselves accordingly. To us then, we estimate that the market will be drawn back in line with the underlying macro.

Excessive Reserve Accumulation and International Trade BalancesPIIE

The doomsday cycle turns: Who’s next?
Simon Johnson, Peter Boone: Industrialised countries today face serious risks – for their financial sectors, for their public finances, and for their growth prospects. This column explains how, through our financial systems, we have created enormous, complex financial structures that can inflict tragic consequences with failure and yet are inherently difficult to regulate and control. It explains how this has happened and why there are more and worse crises to come.

60-Second Adventures in EconomicsFarnam Street
If you want to learn about economics, these videos are for you.

Policy: the biggest unknown to the global economyASA
There is a fine but important distinction between what ought to be done and what is likely to happen (which is often confused by economists), and we are largely more interested in the latter and its consequence.

A Rare Look at Why the Government Won't Fight Wall Street Rolling Stone
The great mystery story in American politics these days is why, over the course of two presidential administrations (one from each party), there’s been no serious federal criminal investigation of Wall Street during a period of what appears to be epic corruption. People on the outside have speculated and come up with dozens of possible reasons, some plausible, some tending toward the conspiratorial – but there have been very few who've come at the issue from the inside.

Bank Supervision: Bye Bye Basel?EconoMonitor
So why this call to “reset” Basel? The desire for a new, simpler, bullet-proof regulation may just a way to make up for the weaknesses of supervision, which were the true trigger behind the latest financial crisis (as shown by the fact that EU member states – having the same rules in place –  were very unevenly affected).

Do bailed-out banks remain bad, while good banks behave better?alphaville / FT
The trauma and cost of a public rescue must surely teach the bank management concerned to behave in a more prudent manner, right? Wrong, according to a recent Bank of International Settlements paper.
A Lonely RedemptionNYT
He knows Wall Street’s heights. He helped hire Michael R. Bloomberg, and he invested the money of two former Securities and Exchange Commission chairmen, making a fortune in the 1980s. And he knows its depths, since he pleaded guilty to stock manipulation in 1989, and was barred from the Street.

EVA:n raportti: Kataisen hallitus vienyt Suomen katastrofiinOlli Pusa / US Puheenvuoro

Pääkirjoitus: Missä ovat euron puolustajat?HS
tätä hirveää sontaa kommentoin aiemmin

Seitsemän seikkaa, joista pääjohtaja Liikanen vaikeniJan Hurri / TalSa
Suomen Pankin pääjohtaja Erkki Liikanen kertoi eduskunnan talousvaliokunnalle, mitä EKP on viime aikoina tehnyt ja suunnitellut tekevänsä ja miksi. Sen sijaan hän ei kertonut, mitkä ovat EKP:n kokeellisen rahapolitiikan tahattomat ja haitalliset sivuvaikutukset. Ainakin nämä seitsemän seikkaa Liikanen jätti kertomatta

Miksi emme pelastaneet Lehmania?Henri Myllyniemi / US Puheenvuoro

Terveisiä Suomen Pankkiin Juhani Huopainen / US Puheenvuoro
nimettömänä pysyttelevän ilmeisen hyvin kärryillä olevan tyypin terveisiä

Eurokriitikko Törnqvist: Mitä vikaa kansallisissa valuutoissa on?TalSa

Tie liittovaltioon on katettu harhaanjohtamisella ja oudoilla päätelmillä tyhmyri
Euron puolustaminen on ilmeisesti kaiken negatiivisen makrodatan valossa muuttunut aika epätoivoisia keinoja edellyttäväksi. Ensimmäinen noiden keinojen uhri näyttää olevan totuus. EVA:n raportin sisältämä tapa esitellä asiat onkin lähinnä hyvää sotapropagandaa, jossa musta muuttuu valkoiseksi ja valkoinen mustaksi.

EVM ja EKP saavat yhdessä auki rajattoman piikinJan Hurri / TalSa
Europäättäjien laskutavalla yksi plus yksi voi olla paljon enemmän kuin kaksi. Jos yhteen lasketaan EVM plus EKP, voi summa olla jopa rajaton. Yhdessä näillä on keinot avata kriisimaille vaikka rajaton rahapiikki – ilman yhdenkään sopimuksen avaamista. Tämän on Suomenkin eduskunta hyväksynyt.

Kreikan Vauvanaskeleet Juhani Huopainen / US Puheenvuoro
Mitä Kreikan ulosjoutumisen (tai pääsyn?) jälkeen tapahtuu?

Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter or Facebook