The last week in review, and next one previewed!
Previously on MoreLiver’s:
7.9. Guest: On Mario's Shock and Awe (excellent)
7.9. US Close: BigU = QE3 (payroll special)
All the coverage on ECB’s decision is in my ECB Watch-post (continuously updated).
Weekly Scoreboard – Between The Hedges
Weekly Eurozone Watch – Global Macro Monitor
Week in Review – Global Macro Monitor
US market portrait 2012 week 37 – Portfolio Probe
Summary for Week ending Sep 7 – Calculated Risk
The key event of the week was in Europe when ECB President Mario Draghi announced the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT). It is hard to tell how effective these measures will be, although analysts at Nomura think the OMT bought policymakers three months at best: "This latest round of policy announcements could buy up to three months should countries call for help relatively quickly and conditions attached to the bail outs are light." In the US, it was a busy week. The employment report was weak again with only 96,000 payroll jobs added in August, and the ISM manufacturing index suggested contraction in manufacturing for the fourth consecutive month.
The Weekender – beyondbrics / FT
Succinct summation of week’s events – The Big Picture
Podcast: MarketBeat Week (27 min) – MarketBeat / WSJ
The pros and cons of the jobs report, how the Fed may respond at next week’s meeting and the steps the European Central Bank has taken to combat the debt crisis. The crew discussed the increasingly likelihood of QE3 and whether stocks — already at four-and-a-half year highs — could have further room to rally. The law of diminishing returns has come into play throughout each of the previous Fed programs, which is a concern. But as the old Wall Street adage goes, don’t fight the Fed.
Politics this week – The Economist
Business this week – The Economist
Schedule for Week of Sep 9 – Calculated Risk
The key event this week is the two day FOMC meeting on Wednesday and Thursday. There is a very strong possibility that the Fed will provide additional accommodation...In Europe, Germany's Constitutional Court is expected to rule if the ESM is constitutional on Wednesday at 6 AM ET.
Next Week’s Tape – MarketBeat / WSJ
Fed Meeting, Apple Event, German Court Decision: A Federal Reserve meeting should dominate financial coverage next week, as market observers wait to see whether the Fed will step in with new interventions to jumpstart the slow U.S. recovery.
S&P 500 Earnings Week Ahead – Reuters
Wall Street Week Ahead – Reuters
At the start of the historically weakest month for equities there are plenty of reasons to believe stocks may be just about reaching a top - at least in the short term.
Video: Europe Week Ahead – Reuters
Pivotal EZ crisis court ruling (2:25)
Video: Asia Week Ahead – Reuters
China trade, Hong Kong leadership test
Video: US Week Ahead – Reuters
Don't bet on support from "Super Ben"
Global Week Ahead – Nordea (pdf)
Global Week Ahead (with Sweden) – Nordea (pdf)
In the US, the Fed meeting concluding on Thursday will be the main focus. In the Euro zone, the crucial day will be Wednesday. On that day the German constitutional court will rule on the ESM and the fiscal pact, the Netherlands will have parliamentary elections and the European Commission will present its banking union proposal.... On top of that, Euro-zone finance ministers will meet on Friday, and discussions about a possible aid request from Spain will really pick up steam.
Weekly Preview: Swiss FX Reserve Growth – BNY Mellon
We strongly suspect it indicates that there has been no meaningful shift in the underlying forces driving the CHF (and reserve growth). Increases in pessimism about the outlook for the Euro-area continue to spark fresh inflows into the CHF while any easing in tensions sees mild outflows occurring. Looking ahead to potential developments in the Euro-area story, although we expect the Spain story to work out well (ish), we also suspect that Greek tensions will become an increasing issue through the remainder of the year.
Weekly Focus: ECB back as fire fighter - and it works – Danske Bank (pdf)
We expect the German ruling on the European Stability Mechanism on Wednesday to attract a lot of attention. On the same day it is election day in The Netherlands. The euro group meeting on Friday may give more insight on whether Spain is ready to ask for help. At Thursday’s FOMC meeting, we expect rate guidance to be extended into 2015. We also think the odds are still skewed towards QE3 – but it is a very close call.
Market Analysis: – The Short Side of the Long
Weighing the Week Ahead: Will the Fed Disappoint the Markets? – A Dash of Insight
Before this week I was not expecting an aggressive action by the Fed, but my own opinion changes with the data. The mistake made by most is a collection of dangerous ideas -- OK for politics, but risky for trading and investing. In the absence of a better term, I'm going to call it the Fed Skeptic Syndrome.
FX Positioning and Technical Outlook – Marc to Market
The Weekly T Report: Dream the Impossible Dream? – TF Market Advisors
From what we have seen with Greece, I think it will take far longer to pull the plug on a country than anyone would expect. In fact, I can’t help but think that Draghi is purposely heading down the slippery slope to ensure that the ECB and EU integrate more rather than less. That he knows politicians won’t like losses, and will always up the program.
Weekly Credit Update – Danske Bank (pdf)
Draghi drags credit spreads tighter. High primary market activity.
EMEA Weekly: Week 37 – Danske Bank (pdf)
Turkish growth slumps. Inflation in focus across the CEE
Emerging: Week Ahead – beyondbrics / FT
German court and Dutch elections to shape week ahead – euobserver
Economic Calendar – fxstreet.com
Monthly Economic Calendar – fxstreet.com
Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
Europe Crisis Tracker – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank