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Saturday, September 8

8th Sep - Weekender: Weekly Support

The last week in review, and next one previewed!

Previously on MoreLiver’s:
7.9. US Close: BigU = QE3 (payroll special)

All the coverage on ECB’s decision is in my ECB Watch-post (continuously updated).

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Weekly Scoreboard – Between The Hedges
Weekly Eurozone Watch – Global Macro Monitor
Week in Review – Global Macro Monitor
US market portrait 2012 week 37 – Portfolio Probe

Summary for Week ending Sep 7Calculated Risk
The key event of the week was in Europe when ECB President Mario Draghi announced the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT). It is hard to tell how effective these measures will be, although analysts at Nomura think the OMT bought policymakers three months at best: "This latest round of policy announcements could buy up to three months should countries call for help relatively quickly and conditions attached to the bail outs are light."  In the US, it was a busy week. The employment report was weak again with only 96,000 payroll jobs added in August, and the ISM manufacturing index suggested contraction in manufacturing for the fourth consecutive month.

The Weekenderbeyondbrics / FT

Succinct summation of week’s eventsThe Big Picture

Podcast: MarketBeat Week (27 min) – MarketBeat / WSJ
The pros and cons of the jobs report, how the Fed may respond at next week’s meeting and the steps the European Central Bank has taken to combat the debt crisis. The crew discussed the increasingly likelihood of QE3 and whether stocks — already at four-and-a-half year highs — could have further room to rally. The law of diminishing returns has come into play throughout each of the previous Fed programs, which is a concern. But as the old Wall Street adage goes, don’t fight the Fed.

Politics this weekThe Economist

Business this weekThe Economist

Schedule for Week of Sep 9Calculated Risk
The key event this week is the two day FOMC meeting on Wednesday and Thursday. There is a very strong possibility that the Fed will provide additional accommodation...In Europe, Germany's Constitutional Court is expected to rule if the ESM is constitutional on Wednesday at 6 AM ET.

Next Week’s TapeMarketBeat / WSJ
Fed Meeting, Apple Event, German Court Decision: A Federal Reserve meeting should dominate financial coverage next week, as market observers wait to see whether the Fed will step in with new interventions to jumpstart the slow U.S. recovery.

S&P 500 Earnings Week AheadReuters

Wall Street Week AheadReuters
At the start of the historically weakest month for equities there are plenty of reasons to believe stocks may be just about reaching a top - at least in the short term.

Video: Europe Week AheadReuters
Pivotal EZ crisis court ruling (2:25)

Video: Asia Week AheadReuters
China trade, Hong Kong leadership test

Video: US Week AheadReuters
Don't bet on support from "Super Ben"

Global Week AheadNordea (pdf)
Global Week Ahead (with Sweden) – Nordea (pdf)
In the US, the Fed meeting concluding on Thursday will be the main focus. In the Euro zone, the crucial day will be Wednesday. On that day the German constitutional court will rule on the ESM and the fiscal pact, the Netherlands will have parliamentary elections and the European Commission will present its banking union proposal.... On top of that, Euro-zone finance ministers will meet on Friday, and discussions about a possible aid request from Spain will really pick up steam.

Weekly Preview: Swiss FX Reserve GrowthBNY Mellon
We strongly suspect it indicates that there has been no meaningful shift in the underlying forces driving the CHF (and reserve growth). Increases in pessimism about the outlook for the Euro-area continue to spark fresh inflows into the CHF while any easing in tensions sees mild outflows occurring. Looking ahead to potential developments in the Euro-area story, although we expect the Spain story to work out well (ish), we also suspect that Greek tensions will become an increasing issue through the remainder of the year.

Weekly Focus: ECB back as fire fighter - and it worksDanske Bank (pdf)
We expect the German ruling on the European Stability Mechanism on Wednesday to attract a lot of attention. On the same day it is election day in The Netherlands. The euro group meeting on Friday may give more insight on whether Spain is ready to ask for help. At Thursday’s FOMC meeting, we expect rate guidance to be extended into 2015. We also think the odds are still skewed towards QE3 – but it is a very close call.

Market Analysis: – The Short Side of the Long

Weighing the Week Ahead: Will the Fed Disappoint the Markets?A Dash of Insight

Before this week I was not expecting an aggressive action by the Fed, but my own opinion changes with the data. The mistake made by most is a collection of dangerous ideas -- OK for politics, but risky for trading and investing.  In the absence of a better term, I'm going to call it the Fed Skeptic Syndrome.
FX Positioning and Technical OutlookMarc to Market

The Weekly T Report: Dream the Impossible Dream?TF Market Advisors
From what we have seen with Greece, I think it will take far longer to pull the plug on a country than anyone would expect. In fact, I can’t help but think that Draghi is purposely heading down the slippery slope to ensure that the ECB and EU integrate more rather than less. That he knows politicians won’t like losses, and will always up the program.

Weekly Credit UpdateDanske Bank (pdf)
Draghi drags credit spreads tighter. High primary market activity.

EMEA Weekly: Week 37Danske Bank (pdf)
Turkish growth slumps. Inflation in focus across the CEE

Emerging: Week Ahead beyondbrics / FT

German court and Dutch elections to shape week aheadeuobserver

Economic Calendar –
Monthly Economic Calendar –
Economic Calendar – BB
EU calendar –


Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
Europe Crisis Tracker – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank

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