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Thursday, September 13

13th Sep - EU Open: We are the Federales

Fed day. My gut feeling is that after the CB action from US is seen and analyzed, markets will turn their focus to the holes in the European plan. American QE is now almost 100% priced in, so I expect slight kneejerk positive reaction followed by "sell the news" in both SPX and EURUSD.

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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News roundup – Between The Hedges
The 6am Cut London – alphaville / FT
Emerging Markets Headlines – beyondbrics / FT

TV: Bloomberg, BBC
Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices

Asia today – Saxo Bank

Morning Briefing (Asia): What is the Fed to do?BNY Mellon
Euro-area crisis? Tomorrow’s FOMC meeting is the market’s bellwether

Market Preview: US FOMC decision on tap Saxo Bank
European markets are expected to open higher Thursday on hopes of further quantitative easing measures at the US FOMC meeting later today. Markets are also keeping an eye on US jobless claims data and the ECB's monthly report today.

Danske DailyDanske Bank (pdf)
Pro-euro parties win the Dutch election,  removing yet another obstacle in the euro crisis. Equities and EUR/USD slightly higher following the German ruling on ESM yesterday. All eyes on Fed today as expectations for QE3 are high. SNB also in focus.

Morning Briefing (EU/US): Between Scylla and Charybdis BNY Mellon 
Greece's Democratic Left is losing support because of the company it keeps

AamukatsausNordea (pdf)
Euroalue kohti tiiviimpää liittoa * Hollannilta euromyönteinen vaalitulos * Saksan Bund-futuuri kahden kuukauden pohjiin ESM-päätöksen myötä

Aamukatsaus Tapiola (pdf)
Markkinoiden huomio keskittyy tänään USA:n keskuspankin FED:in, jolta odotetaan uutta määrällistä elvytystä (QE3). Uusi määrällinen elvytys tukisi osakkeita ja hyödykkeitä sekä painaisi dollaria. Markkinan suunta: Saksan perustuslakituomioistuimelta odotettu päätös hyväksyä Saksan osallistuminen EVM:ään, markkinoilla positiivinen reaktio päätökseen. Tänään erittäin tärkeä USA:n keskuspankin avomarkkinakomitean ilmoitus mahdollisista uusista elvytystoimista. Markkinoiden enemmistö odottaa uutta QE3:sta. Apple julkaisi odotetun kaltaisen iPhone 5:n, toimitukset alkavat jo syyskuussa. Osakefutuurit flättinä eli odottavalla kannalla ennen FED kokousta.


German Constitutional Court tightens the noose yet furtherThe Telegraph
"An acquisition of government bonds on the secondary market by the European Central Bank aiming at financing the Members’ budgets independently of the capital markets is prohibited as well, as it would circumvent the prohibition of monetary financing."

The centre holds in EuropeGideon Rachman / FT
The vote in the Netherlands may now form part of a pattern, in which European voters scare the daylights out of mainstream politicians by flirting with the extremes – only to shy away on election day itself.

Goldman On Spain's Tension-Inducing ArroganceZH
The opposition seen in Germany in response to Mr Draghi’s preparedness to buy sovereign debt implies that current posturing in Spain will not wear well with the politics of signing a Memorandum of Understanding in Germany. The more the Spanish administration indulges domestic political interests and is perceived to be taking undue advantage of external support, the more explicit conditionality is likely to be demanded.

Mr. Draghi, Mr. Arnault, and Europe’s Gordian KnotEconoMonitor
This Gordian knot is, in turn, the consequence of two forces at the heart of the EU’s functioning—or rather, its epic dysfunctions: a creditor protection dogma and a fiscal black hole.

Monti Warns Italian Unions; Over 200,000 Jobs at Risk; Italy's Insane Labor Rules; Employment, Italian StyleMish’s

Fed Seen Starting QE3 While Extending Rate Pledge to 2015BB

The Wait Should be Finally OverTim Duy’s Fed Watch

FOMC Projections PreviewCalculated Risk

The Fiscal Cliff: What Now and What to ExpectA Dash of Insight

Saksan oikeuspäätös ja EVM – pelastuiko euro vai saiko se kuolemantuomion? tyhmyri

Pankkiunionin ensimmäinen askel sai merkkinsäKarjalainen

Pankkiunioni kaipaa vielä täsmennyksiäSS

Eurokriisin hoidossa askelletaan eteenpäinHS

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