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Wednesday, October 10

10th Oct - EU Open: Previous lows visited

After the deeper drop than I was expecting, the previous lows came close. (1.28-12850 in EURUSD - 1.285 visited, 1427 in SPX - 1432 visited). Good chance of a relief rally and perhaps a horizontal trading range of 1.30-1.2850. But the weakness scares me and increases the probability of a "double top"-scenario in both markets. Sorry about the missing updates - I just updated the yesterday's US close and will update the IMF post next. The next post will be big.

Previously on MoreLiver’s

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News roundup – Between The Hedges
The 6am Cut London – alphaville / FT
Emerging Markets Headlines – beyondbrics / FT

Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices

Morning Briefing (Asia): Dow Drops Over 100 Points Ahead of EarningsBNY Mellon
On the subject of Norway’s house price boom

3 Numbers to Watch: Beige Book, FR Industrial Production & GoldSaxo Bank
There are not many economic data releases to report on today. The US Federal Reserve is due to release its latest edition of the Beige Book. Industrial production in France will stay flat, while gold looks to have found a new consolidation point.

Asia Today: EURUSD holds 200-day MA after tripping up yesterdaySaxo Bank
Yesterday’s bullish Asian session was wiped out overnight and left many Asian traders scratching their heads this morning. Data releases were thin, so it was range-trading during the session, albeit at lower levels than yesterday

Market Preview: French Industrial Output eyedSaxo Bank
European markets are expected to open lower Wednesday as investors remain cautious as the corporate earnings season begins. French and Italian industrial production data and a meeting between Spain's Rajoy and France's Hollande are also in focus.

Danske DailyDanske Bank (pdf)
IMF warns eurozone on capital flight. Portugal gets one more year to achieve its fiscal goals. 11 EU member states now support a financial transaction tax. Market movers today: France industrial production, Italy industrial production, Sweden industrial production and new orders, Fed’s Beige Book

AamukatsausNordea (pdf)
Merkel vakuutteli Kreikan pysyvän eurossa. Rahapolitiikka pysyy Kiinassa kasvua tukevana. Öljyn hinta korkeimmilleen kuukauteen Lähi-idän tarjontapelkojen myötä

AamukatsausTapiola (pdf)
Osakemarkkina jatkoi lasketteluaan ennen tuloskauden käynnistymistä. Tuloskauden yhtiökohtaiset tulosodotukset analyysissä: Kiinnostavia yhtiöitä ”helposti ennustettavat”, joissa matalat odotukset H2/2012 sekä positiivisesti yllättäneet, joissa ennusteet nousseet maltillisesti. OMX HEX 3Q12 tuloskausi käyntiin Baswaren ja Cityconin tuloksilla: Tuloskauden kalenteri lisätty aamukatsaukseen.

Morning Briefing (EU/US): Hammer to FallBNY Mellon 
Increasingly, government preoccupation with ‘plain vanilla’ fiscal austerity is getting a bad press 


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