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Thursday, October 18

18th Oct - EU Open: China another positive

Chinese data came out, and on surface they were good. Summit time in Europe. Updated views later - meanwhile, after a pause of couple of days, I posted a very, very nice post last night - check it out.

Previously on MoreLiver’s:
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News roundup – Between The Hedges
The 6am Cut London – alphaville / FT
Emerging Markets Headlines – beyondbrics / FT

Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices

Morning Briefing (Asia): EUR/JPY Continues to Move Higher on Risk AppetiteBNY Mellon
Perhaps Greece will get the money after all.

3 Numbers to Watch: EU summit, UK Retail Sales & Philly survey Saxo Bank
The all-important EU summit is starting in Brussels today and we will be taking a close look at Spanish bond yields. In the UK retail sales are expected to pick up in September, while the Philadelphia Business Outlook survey is also due to rebound.

Asia Today: China growth shows signs of bottoming – helps risk Saxo Bank
Asia was on China watch today with the release of Q3 GDP and the rest of September data on tap. Numbers were generally positive (GDP up 7.4% y/y as expected,7.7% y/y YTD with IP/retail sales above forecast) lending support to risk and risk currencies

Market Preview: EU leaders meeting eyedSaxo Bank
European markets are expected to open in the green Thursday amid improved risk appetite following strong Chinese economic data. Markets are keeping an eye on the EU leaders meeting commencing today.

Danske DailyDanske Bank (pdf)
Stronger-than-expected Chinese data send stocks higher. Very upbeat US housing data underpin risk sentiment. Spanish 10-year yield at lowest level since March. The EU Summit in focus today as well as US claims and Philly Fed. Market movers today: EU summit, Sweden unemployment, UK retail sales, US Philadelphia Fed survey, US initial jobless claims

Aamukatsaus – Nordea (pdf)

AamukatsausTapiola (pdf)
Nokia julkistaa tänään osavuosituloksensa kello 13. Markkinoiden mielenkiinto kohdistuu etenkin liikevoittoon (Non-IFRS), Lumia puhelinteen volyymiin ja nettokassan kehitykseen. Markkinan suunta: 
Osakkeet jatkaa nousuaan, myötätuulta USA:n asuntomarkkinalta. Aamulla positiivisia uutisia Kiinan taloudesta, jossa merkkejä hidastumisen pysähtymisestä. Comptel 3Q12-tulos aamulla odotetun kaltainen (ilman kertakuluja odotuksia parempi). Tänään kalenterissa paljon makrolukuja ja 3Q12 tuloksia  – osakefutuurit flättinä.

Morning Briefing (EU/US): Blowin' in the wind BNY Mellon 
Answering the question about the EUR's longer-term performance, may require looking beyond its underlying fundamentals


A Europe for the WorldProject Syndicate
Javier Solana: As the EU aspires to become an international power, its choice is simple. Either Europeans act in unity to confront the tremendous challenges presented by the tumultuous changes now underway in the world order, or they will be doomed to act as spectators in a world in which they have little or no say.

Greece is turning the corner but debt restructuring is keySober Look

10am Madrid timeSober Look
An important indicator will be released tomorrow at 10am Madrid time - the August proportion of bad residential and corporate loans in Spain.
Buyer's Remorse?Tim Duy’s Fed Watch
Assuming inflation remains contained, at this point I suspect that we would need to see sustainable growth well above 3 percent in 2013 (the Fed's central forecast is 2.5-3%) before policymakers are willing to consider pulling their foot off the gas anytime soon.

Housing Recovery May Validate Fed’s QE3WSJ

Q3:2012 U.S. GDP Nowcast UpdateThe Capital Spectator

Weaker growth in Q3 and bottom is reached Nordea
China: Finally signs of recoveryDanske Bank (pdf)
China GDP: edging towards recovery?beyondbrics / FT
Take That Hard Landing II: China Will Meet Growth Target – Forbes
China’s economy in Q3: the good, the bad, and the absurdASA

Goldilocks GDP: Q3 Economy Goalseeked Just As Expected At 7.4% – ZH
Electricity Consumption And Production Both Point To Sub 7% GDP Reality – ZH
New home prices rose in 31 cities in September – ASA
GDP increased by 7.4% yoy in third quarter 2012 – ASA
Industrial production increased by 9.2% yoy in September 2012 – ASA

Fixed asset investment growth picked up in September – ASA
Retail sales increased by 14.2% yoy in September – ASA
Real estate investment slowed slightly in September – ASA

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