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Thursday, October 4

4th Oct - EU Open: Schwing!

nice bull channel
Markets waiting for another round of central bank meetings later, and guessing when Spain officially begs. SPX is pushing higher and looks technically really nice - the bull trend channel is now four months old and after recently visiting the bottom of the channel, has now turned up. EURUSD has not joined the fun - yet?

may test the 1445
Previously on MoreLiver’s
France sucks
News roundup – Between The Hedges
The 6am Cut London – alphaville / FT
Emerging Markets Headlines – beyondbrics / FT

Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices

Morning Briefing (Asia): Markets Await BOE and ECB DecisionsBNY Mellon
We love the CAD, who doesn’t? That’s the problem. 

3 Numbers to Watch: BoE & ECB rate decisions; FOMC minutesSaxo Bank
Plenty of central bank action today with the Bank of England’s vote on interest rates and asset purchases. This will be followed by the ECB rate decision and press conference. Finally, the Federal Reserve is due to release the latest FOMC minutes. 

Asia Today: More pressure on the AUD as retail sales disappointSaxo Bank
The focus was still on Australia in Asia with retail sales in the spotlight. The good news was they rebounded back into positive territory in August having slumped 0.8% the previous month. Bad news was that it did not quite match market expectations 

Market Preview: BoE, ECB rate decisions eyedSaxo Bank
European markets are expected to open higher Thursday amid expectations of further monetary easing from both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England at their monetary policy meetings later today. 

Danske DailyDanske Bank (pdf)
No new policy action expected from the ECB – Draghi is still waiting for Spain * Bank of England to remain on hold - no new action expected until November * FOMC minutes * Bond auctions in Spain and France. 

AamukatsausNordea (pdf)
Palvelusektorin luottamus piristyi USA:ssa – työllisyysluvut kohtalaisia * Euroalueen vähittäismyynti yllätti positiivisesti – EKP:lta ei luvassa uutta tietoa * Brent-öljyn hinta laski kolmella prosentilla kahden kuukauden pohjiin

AamukatsausTapiola (pdf)
Eurooppalaisten ETF-rahastojen pääomavirtojen perusteella syyskuussa nähtiin voimakas allokaation muutos defensiivisistä sektoreista syklisiin. Suomessa vastaavantyyppistä liikettä ei nähty. Markkinan suunta: Osakkeille tukea jälleen USA:n odotuksia paremmasta makrodatasta, etenkin palvelualojen tilanne USA:ssa selvästi odotuksia vahvempi. Tänään markkinoilla keskitytään EKP:n korkokokoukseen. Osakefutuurit plussalla, indikoiden nousuavausta aamulla.

Morning Briefing (EU/US): Wind of changeBNY Mellon
Just how brightly the red lights are flashing is open to debate, but recent forecasts for Germany are all telling a similar tale


Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices

Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter or Facebook 

Van Rompuy paper points to EU summit pitfalls Reuters
Banking supervision, the single market, a centralized euro zone budget, a single bank resolution fund, direct recapitalization of banks from rescue funds and much stricter fiscal oversight.

A European federal economic government is needed to run the fiscal union in the interests of states and taxpayers.Europp / LSE
The United Kingdom has decided it will not be part of the federal union. So a new form of associate membership of the EU will have to be devised to suit the British, but also to prevent a British veto of the constitutional evolution needed and desired by its partners. Associate membership may also cater for the needs of other countries.

Common EZ budget? Good luck! Economist Meg
Euro zone policymakers are right that fiscal transfers are necessary to keep all current member states in the common currency union. But I doubt that politics can evolve fast enough to establish a fiscal union before countries choose to abandon the euro.

Multiplying Europe's fiscal suicide (technical)The Telegraph
The entire EU austerity plan is based on a false premise. This disastrous error is now clear beyond any reasonable doubt.

Protests, Riots, Rightists Rage in Europe—But No Ill EffectPIIE
Bundesbank’s protests to ECB, Catalonia and Greece are just anger-venting and no policy-changers.

Fight Looms Over EU Plans for Bank ReformSpiegel
Until recently, calls to forcibly split up European banks were dismissed as a radical leftist idea. Now even an EU panel of experts is recommending dividing up dangerous financial giants. But the banking lobby, which would face major cost increases as a result, has the power to water down the ideas.

EU bank watchdog sticks to capital targetReuters
The European Union's banking watchdog is sticking to a capital target for banks to help shield them from the euro zone debt crisis, saying lenders that fall short won't be able to pay dividends or big bonuses.

French Economy ImplodesMish’s
Service sector business activity is dropping at fastest rate since October 2011.

France now has two words for entrepreneuralphaville / FT
the French government wants to tax capital gains at the same rate as earned income.

Spain fears harsh rescue terms from AAA Nordic parliamentsThe Telegraph
Senior officials from Germany and other parts of the eurozone's AAA core have warned Spain privately that angry parliaments are likely to impose stringent conditions on any further rescue loans.

55 straight months of job cuts in Spain's service sectorSober Look

Spain's tax take tumbles as companies go abroadReuters
Spain's corporate tax take has tumbled by almost two thirds from pre-crisis levels as small businesses fail and a growing number of big corporations seek profits abroad to compensate for the prolonged downturn at home.

Transfer issues will plague Spanish bank bailoutSober Look
The Spanish bank bailout process still lacks sufficient detail - after months since the announcement.

OSI likely, but not to give Greece a new lease on life in the EZEconomist Meg
Possibly as early as the first half of next year if the current Greek coalition collapses and is replaced by a Syriza-led, hard bargaining coalition that goes to the brink with the troika and is too inexperienced to pull back. There is also a chance the troika will continue to keep Greece on life support until after the German elections (September 2013) and until both Spain and Italy are in partial bailout programs (Spain: any day now, Italy: probably after their election in Q2 2013).

Greek hopes fade for quick deal on austerity cutsReuters
Greece's hopes of striking a deal with its lenders before euro zone finance ministers meet next week dimmed on Wednesday, when officials admitted the two sides disagree on how much the economy will contract in 2013 - a key figure in their calculations.

Portugal to raise taxes to meet austerity targetsThe Telegraph
Portugal has announced a raft of new cuts designed to reduce the country's debt load, as finance minister Vitor Gaspar unveiled sweeping changes that will see the average income tax rate rise by 2pc.

IMF chief economist says crisis will last a decadeReuters
The world economy will take at least 10 years to emerge from the financial crisis that began in 2008, the International Monetary Fund's Chief Economist Olivier Blanchard said in an interview published on Wednesday.

Increase in trade deficit points to vulnerability of Australian dollarSober Look

4 Years After TARP - Winners, Losers, Bubbles, And TroublesZH
roundup of asset performance

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