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Thursday, October 4

4th Oct - US Open: Good, bad or fugly?

EURUSD and SPX somewhat positive ahead and immediately after the European central banks - both unchanged but sending positive messages. Or thus thinks the market. Wednesday's late minirally in US was attributed to Romney's perceived good performance in debate vs. Obama. The (coming) European roadmap to closer union (banking & fiscal) will be the defining moment of the euro crisis.

This is the key. Everything else is just central banks flailing about.

Previously on MoreLiver’s

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Roundups & Commentary
US Opening News And Market Re-Cap – Ransquawk / ZH
Frontrunning – ZH
Overnight Sentiment: Spain Sells Bonds As Redemptions Loom – ZH
The Lunch Wrap – alphaville / FT
Emerging N.Y. headlines – beyondbrics / FT
Today’s front pages – presseurop
Daily press summary – Open Europe
  Catalan Economy Minister: Spain’s bailout request ‘a matter of weeks away’

Morning MarketBeat: What a Difference a Year Makes – WSJ
Broker Note Briefing – WSJ
Morning Take-Out – NYT
AM Dear Dairy: Mixed – Macro and Cheese
The T Report: Writers Block – 2 Pages of It – TF Market Advisors

US session ahead
Pre-market Commentary – Marketwatch
Pre-Market Trading – CNNMoney
Pre-Market – NASDAQ
US Equity Preview – Bloomberg
Earnings & Events – The Street
MarketCurrents – Seeking Alpha

Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices

Threatening to leave the eurozone may be Ireland’s only way to break the link between its sovereign and bank debtEuropp / LSE
Ireland faces a heavy fiscal and structural adjustment programme imposed by the Troika at the same time as some EU countries insist that it continues to pay the debt of its failed banks. With Spain now getting assistance for its banks under the European Stability Mechanism, Aidan Regan argues that there are different rules for different eurozone countries.

EU leaders to consider eurozone budget, reform 'contracts'euobserver
The commission blueprint is only expected to be issued after the October summit, but before a November meeting of EU leaders aimed at sealing a deal on the next EU budget for 2014-2020.

A German slowdownalphaville / FT
JP Morgan’s Alex White argues that the German policy motor may be about to properly slow down, and with it the response to the eurozone crisis which usually moves at Germany’s speed

European Bailout Rumor Du Jour Comes In EarlyZH

The European Semester Timelinebruegel
EU economic policy coordination is now supported by a process known as European Semester, which provides a common timetable for EU policy guidance and the monitoring of national actions. This blog entry summarizes the main steps in the European Semester and the role each EU Institution plays in the process.

The quest for a healthy European banking sectorOpen Europe
Yesterday saw the release of the hefty Liikanen report (a dense 153 pages) on the European banking sector. We’re yet to fully sift through the report but there a quite a few eye catching graphs and statistics which we thought worth flagging up.

EP Vice-President: send the military police to CataloniaOpen Europe

Forward Markets: Macro Strategy ReviewThe Big Picture

Wonkbook: Everything you need to know about the first debateWonkblog / WP

G10 Weekly: No doubt, central banks are dominating asset marketsNordea (pdf)
Equity markets are apparently pricing in a different story than rates markets. In our view, this dislocation with rates is rather a reflection of central banks’ balance sheet expansion but perhaps also the lack of investment substitutes when core government bond yields offer negative real returns.

Business Cycle Monitor: First signs of recoveryDanske Bank (pdf)
Overall, we believe surveys are in a bottoming phase. We believe the US activity indicators will pick up further in coming months and, together with Chinese stimuli, this should soon start to have a positive effect on the global economy. Hence, we expect PMI to recover gradually in Q4.

UBS: EM bonds as safe havensbeyondbrics / FT
not only are flows into EM debt growing, as has been widely reported, but they are also changing in nature. What were once investments bought only by the bulls have become an asset for bears, too. In other words, a haven of safety.

September 2012: the month in chartsThe Knowledge Effect / Thomson Reuters

Rahoitusmarkkinat – TilastokatsausSuomen Pankki (pdf)
aihepiirejä ovat korot, valuuttakurssit, Suomen pankkijärjestelmän taseet, raha-aggregaatit ja niiden vastaerät, talletukset, lainat, maksutase sekä rahoitustilinpito. Lisäksi julkaisu sisältää tietoja muutamista keskeisistä reaalitalouden indikaattoreista euroalueella ja Suomessa.

Pragmaattisuutta ideologisen hurmoksen sijaan Jan Vapaavuori / US Puheenvuoro