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Tuesday, October 23

23rd Oct - US Open: "Sell-off"

EURUSD and SPX selling off on "low volume". Perhaps the Spanish lousy GDP estimates from the central bank, perhaps the growing pessimism on US earnings outlook or simply the realization that Europe still has not solved its crisis. In my view, the markets are still within the acceptable range for a range scenario. It is common for the markets to make marginal new lows or highs just to tease all the stop orders, but you people probably already knew that, right? 

In addition to the bad Spanish numbers (no-one was expecting any good news for sure), the French industry's confidence estimates for October came out - and they were really bad. This makes an interesting set-up for tomorrow's European PMI's - probably the market is now expecting somewhat lower numbers than the latest consensus forecasts would suggest - a spot-on or even "worse-than expected" PMI could be deemed an euro positive. Just some rambling of mine, sorry. For a specific reason... I have an interest in tomorrow's numbers...

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Roundups & Commentary
US Opening News And Market Re-Cap – Ransquawk / ZH
Frontrunning – ZH
Overnight Sentiment: Crashy – ZH
The Lunch Wrap – alphaville / FT
Emerging N.Y. headlines – beyondbrics / FT
Today’s front pages – presseurop
Daily press summary – Open Europe
  Cameron: Eurozone needs ‘mutualised deposit guarantees, a common fiscal backstop and a framework for rescuing banks’; Hague: It is not for Britain to tell eurozone countries what to do

Morning MarketBeat: Technicals Support Rally, for Now – WSJ
Broker Note Briefing – WSJ
Storms in Spain  Marc to Market
Canaries Banned from Coalmines (Elephants Allowed) – TF Market Advisors

US session ahead
Pre-market Commentary – Marketwatch
Pre-Market Trading – CNNMoney
Pre-Market – NASDAQ
US Equity Preview – Bloomberg
Earnings & Events – The Street
MarketCurrents – Seeking Alpha

Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices

“Europhorics”, our most dangerous friendsDie Zeit / presseurop
There are the “Eurosceptics”, and there are “Eurohaters”. And then there are the “Europhorics”, who are to be found among both intellectuals and politicians and who at least as dangerous as the former. To them the EU is not a union, but a worldview – and they are abusing it.

The eurozone needs its own budget with significant capacity to absorb major shocks and tackle the crisiseuropp / LSE
Herman Van Rompuy, President of the European Council, has called for a euro-area budget, with the ability to absorb country-specific shocks in member states at a central level. Guntram Wolff looks at these proposals, saying that there is a strong case for a eurozone federal budget, and a strongly defined banking union, to be used for stabilisation policy. He suggests that the existing European Stability Mechanism should be explored as a basis for developing the eurozone’s fiscal capacity.

Stop this campaign against ECB policyBrussels blog / FT
The European Central Bank’s recent decision to be a lender of last resort in government bond markets is a turning point in the governance of the eurozone. By committing itself to unlimited government bond purchases, the ECB prevented a panic that would have pushed governments into liquidity and solvency crises, destroying the eurozone.

A brief respite for the euro?alphaville / FT
Commerzbank is arguing that we should all forget about the eurozone crisis for a bit where euro-dollar is concerned

Spain Output Shrinks Fifth Quarter Amid Bailout Talk: EconomyBB
Gross domestic product fell 0.4 percent in the three months through September from the previous quarter, matching the contraction of the second quarter, the Bank of Spain said in an estimate in its monthly bulletin

Spanish regions downgraded to 'junk'euobserver

French Industrial Sentiment Falls To A 3-Year LowBI

False Dawn Or False DuskMacro Man
So TMM are of the view that real money is likely to be accumulating length into weakness - and the low volume sell off this morning feels to us as though it is merely HF and CTA activity. Absent major macro news, TMM would argue the old adage applied "don't sell a quiet market". Buy the dip.

Market is short-term bullish, long term cautiousHumble Student

Euroliittovaltio ja suomalainen veronmaksaja – varautukaa rajuihin veronkorotuksiin ja hillittömiin julkisten palveluiden leikkauksiintyhmyri

Euron itseisarvoRafael Rantala / US Puheenvuoro

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