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| Is this Europe's "believe me"? Source: The Big Pictur |
And as the market anticipates selling pressure, it has already taken the prices to those perceived lows. Perhaps we are already near those lows. Now all it takes is one good economic figure to turn the situation around and make people forget bad Q3. People need to believe in Q4, like they've never believed before.
By the way, today's durable goods orders looked good, but almost all the "improvement" was just catching up or military spending. Hardly a victory over the evil Q3. If you have too much time, notice what the Japanese yen has been doing lately. As long as I can remember, buying USDJPY around 80-85 and selling arond 120-130 has been an easy way to make money. Currently 80.35, next stop 83.
Previously on
MoreLiver’s:
Roundups and
Commentary
News – Between
The Hedges
Markets – Between
The Hedges
Recap – Global
Macro Trading
The Closer – alphaville / FT
Roundup – A
View From My Screens
Roundup – Kiron
Sarkar / The Big Picture
European Summary: Spanish Stocks And Bonds Bleeding
Into The Close – ZH
US Summary: The QEternity 6 Week Scorecard: C Minus – ZH
Reference
Debt
crisis: live – The
Telegraph
The Euro
Crisis Blog – WSJ
FX Options
Analytics – Saxo
Bank
European
10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices
Economic
Calendar – Forexpros
EUROPE
A Finnish parallel currency is imaginable – FT
For while Finland has not created much drama,
precisely because it is one of the strongest eurozone members, some fascinating
discussions are under way. Most notably, as the eurozone crisis rumbles on,
some Finnish business and government officials are quietly mulling the
logistics of leaving the currency union.
Weakness the Eurozone credit growth persists;
stark contrast with the US – Sober Look
The
stagnation in lending is in part due to banks deleveraging in order to improve
capital ratios for Basel III. But a big part of the issue is simply lack of
demand from borrowers.
Time already to switch off the sterling
printing presses? –
MacroScope
/ Reuters
Commentators
see today’s better-than-expected GDP number as a precursor to end of massive QE
The battle of the budget – The
Economist
Why the
epic fight over EU spending is a wasted opportunity
Sovereign CDS: Messenger shot, message not – The
Economist
A ban on
insuring against European defaults has unintended consequences
EUROPE: PIIGS
What Do Spain And Greece Have To Look Forward
To? SocGen Answers: "Not A Lot" – ZH
SocGen: The
moribund growth backdrop also begs the question what palpable difference any
relief over Spain or Greece (if it comes) will do to the long
end. The answer is probably not a whole lot.
When a
bail-out for Spain arrives, it is likely to be
prolonged
Spanish
treasury minister states 2012 funding needs are covered, but buffers were down from
€40bn in May to €16bn in August – and then there will be 2013.
Portugal: Letter of Intent, Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies, and
Technical Memorandum of Understanding – IMF (pdf)
Portugal: Fifth Review Under the Extended Arrangement and Request for Waivers of
Applicability and Nonobservance of End-September Performance Criteria – IMF
USA
Still The Scariest Data – Tim
Duy’s Fed Watch
The core
manufacturing data stands out as an aberration.
While arguably a recessionary indicator, it also comes at a time of an
improving housing market. It would be
unusual, to say the least, to experience a recession when housing is trending
up. Moreover, I remain skeptical that
trade channels are sufficient to trip the economy into recession. Still, I can't discount the recession threat
entirely; to do so would be ludicrous in the face of the looming fiscal cliff.
Economists revise down third quarter U.S. GDP forecasts as business investment
missing in action –
MacroScope
/ Reuters
JP Morgan: Don’t
let the headline fool you: the September durables report was a big
disappointment.
Today's Economic Reports Bring A Sigh Of Relief
– The
Capitalist Spectator
Today's
updates on jobless claims and durable goods orders bring good news, or at least
good relative to the worst fears inspired by recent data points in these
series.
ASIA
Japanese
politicians are at loggerheads over a bill that would allow the government to
borrow the Y38.3tn ($479bn) it needs to finance this year’s deficit.
OTHER
G10 Weekly: Macro vs. market divergence to
end? – Nordea (pdf)
Macro vs.
market divergence to end? * US – Earnings and economic momentum * USDJPY
– Leaving the comfort zone * RIX – Our call for further easing is intact
Sugar Bottom Is Approaching – The
Short Side of The Long
Also a word
on stock market and the level of financial stress
Global risk appetite still on the rise – Sober
Look
The CS
index is still below the early 2012 LTRO-induced euphoria, but is on the rise
nevertheless.
EMEA Weekly: Week 44 – Danske
Bank (pdf)
CNB to cut to zero and more to come
IN FINNISH
Eurokriisissä peli kovenee – Brysselin Kone / YLE
Brysselin koneessa
haastateltavana on perussuomalainen EU:n federalisaatiota vastustavan
EFD-ryhmän jäsen, europarlamentaarikko Sampo Terho. Hän on ainoana
suomalaismeppinä Europarlamentin talous- ja raha-asioiden valiokunnan täysjäsen,
ja siis hyvällä näköalapaikalla eurokriisin suhteen. Miten tilanne hänestä
tulisi ratkaista?
Pääkirjoitus: Suomi
vetäytyy, kun muu euroryhmä tiivistyy – HS