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Monday, October 8

8th Oct - EU Open: Summit Show

If you are just returning to the office: PLEASE, take a look at my weekend posts linked below. They are long and I push the week's best stuff into them. You might be surprised. EDIT: US bank holiday today - low-volume day, but not sure if that translates into low volatility as well.

Previously on MoreLiver’s

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News roundup – Between The Hedges
The 6am Cut London – alphaville / FT
Emerging Markets Headlines – beyondbrics / FT

Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices

3 Numbers to Watch: DE Trade & Ind Production; EZ Investor ConfidSaxo Bank
With markets in the US closed for Columbus Day it is all European data today. Germany's trade balance and industrial production levels are expected to decline for August, while the October Eurozone Sentix investor confidence index is also due.

Asia Today: No follow through from US jobs report; Gold heavySaxo Bank
There was not much follow through from Friday’s positive post non-farms risk-on trading in a quiet Asian session with a Japan holiday impacting. Gold traded heavily from the start as it failed to breach the 1,800 mark at the first attempt.

Market Preview: EU finance ministers meet eyedSaxo Bank
European markets are expected to open lower Monday amid concerns over global economic growth. Investors keenly await the Eurozone finance ministers meeting, German industrial production and trade data due later today.

Danske DailyDanske Bank (pdf)
ECB’s Asmussen says that ECB rolling over Greek debt would be illegal. FT tracking index shows momentum in global economy dissipating. US Consumer credit rose more than expected. Market movers today: German industrial production, ECOFIN and Eurogroup meetings, ESM inauguration

AamukatsausNordea (pdf)
USA:n työllisyysluvut varovaisen positiivinen yllätys * Euroalueen valtiovarainministereiden tapaamisesta ei odoteta ihmeitä * USA:n työllisyysluvuista nostetta Saksan ja USA:n koroille

AamukatsausTapiola (pdf)
Markkinan suunta: Edellisviikko päättyi melko positiivisissa tunnelmissa, kun USA:n perjantain työmarkkinaraportti osoitti työttömyysprosentin laskeneen alle 8%. Tällä viikolla polkaistaan tuloskausi käyntiin sekä USA:ssa että Suomessa. Lyhyen ja pitkän aikavälin sijoittamisen yhdistäminen: Nyt hyvä hetki ostaa: Fortum, Sanoma, Metso, F-Secure, UPM-Kymmene.
Nyt hyvä hetki myydä: Pöyry, Rautaruukki, Neste Oil, Finnair, Sampo. 

Morning Briefing (EU/US): Troubled RainbowBNY Mellon
Is South Africa facing one of its greatest post-apartheid challenges? 



Eurozone rage: Turning point or business as usual?Jacob Funk Kirkegaard /
Political pressures are rising again in Europe. This column argues that reactions in parliaments, central banks and on the street are well within the bounds of predictable reactions to hard times. These developments change nothing of significance in the calculus concerning the eventual success of the Eurozone crisis response.

Capital flight into Switzerland continuesSober Look
Swiss foreign reserves rose to another record (CHF 429.3bn) at the end of September as depositors once again moved funds out of the Eurozone

Goldman On The Not-So-Good, The Bad, And The Ugly Fiscal Cliff Scenarios That RemainZH
GS: The tail risk is that Congress will fail to agree on any type of resolution for a more extended period, and the economy is hit with both the sequester and much bigger tax increases. While the impact of such a failure—especially those related to confidence and financial conditions—is harder to quantify, just the direct fiscal effect would imply a GDP growth hit of around 4 percentage points in early 2013, and likely a recession.

Can The Fed Ever Exit?ZH
UBS: although the Fed has suggested that it will not begin an exit strategy until 2015, the magnitude of the excess balance sheet argues for considering whether the Fed has the ability to unwind their balance sheet.

The Fed's 'Improvisation' PhaseZH
Morgan Stanley: Fed officials are now in the improvisation phase of their monetary policy experiment. Policy makers have told us that they will do whatever it takes to get what they want. The problem is that they have not told us specifically what it takes or what they want.

The Disingenuous James BullardTim Duy’s Fed Watch
If Bullard wants to take a hard line against higher inflation, so be it.  In reality, that hard line has been adopted by the vast majority of Fed officials.  They aren't inclined to touch the inflation option for fear, I think, that it would work.

Comparing China with failuresASA
In one way or another, China bulls make the argument to support the bullish ideas based on some sort of comparisons of China today with another country, most of the time a now highly developed country.

How to be a China bullmpettis
I recently “debated” twice with senior Chinese officials on the future prospects for China.  In both cases they made the argument that Chinese growth rates were going to rise in the next few years and that the current deep pessimism is unwarranted. I argued, of course, that growth would slow even more.

China and Australia’s Coming Economic ‘Divorce’The Diplomat
Whether China’s current slowdown is a cyclical dip, or whether it’s the beginning of a long, gradual, Japanese-style slump, is one of the most pressing questions for today’s economists. And now a new question has arise: will the economies that have been relying on China be able to decouple if its GDP growth continues to weaken?   

Our crusade slowly crushes Iran, and reveals much about usFabius Maximus
In pursuit of dominance over the Middle East the US government destroyed Iraq, one of the two regional powers. Now we run the same playbook against Iran.  Being a docile and easily led people, we don’t notice the similarity, or that our government trashes America’s greatest accomplishment on the world stage — and perhaps its primary legacy.

Iran on the brinkSober Look
One doesn't need to focus on the history of Iran to appreciate how dangerous the situation has become. Currency debasement and inflation were responsible for hostilities through the ages.

FX Comment: lies, damn lies and statisticsNordea

Tokyo links — IMF-World Bank Annual MeetingsiMFdirect
The 2012 annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank are being held this year in Tokyo at a crucial time for the world economy. Track everything through the live events schedule (all Tokyo times).

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