Google Analytics

Friday, October 12

12th Oct - Weekender: Weekly Support

Here are the links to sort out your review of last week and prepare for the next one. I will update the missing ones as soon as they are published.

Previously on MoreLiver’s

Weekly Scoreboard – Between The Hedges
Weekly Eurozone Watch – Global Macro Monitor
Week in Review – Global Macro Monitor
US Market Portrait Week 42 Portfolio Probe

Summary for Week ending Oct 12Calculated Risk 
This was a very light week for US economic data 

The Weekenderbeyondbrics / FT

The Weekender alphaville / FT

Succinct summation of week’s eventsThe Big Picture

(podcast) MarketBeat Week: Is the QE3 Rally Dead? – MarketBeat / WSJ

Week in ReviewDealBook / NYT
What Criminal Case? Inside JPMorgan’s Rising Profit

Politics this weekThe Economist

Business this weekThe Economist

Schedule for Week of Oct 14Calculated Risk 
This will be a very busy week for economic data. There are three key housing reports to be released this week: October homebuilder confidence on Tuesday, September housing starts on Wednesday, and September existing home sales on Friday. Another key report is retail sales for September. For manufacturing, the October NY Fed (Empire state) and Philly Fed surveys, and the September Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization report will be released this week. On prices, CPI for September will be released on Tuesday. 

Next Week’s Tape: Earnings Season in Full SwingMarketBeat / WSJ
Earnings from a host of bellwethers highlights next week's action; economic reports illustrate almost all facets of the economy; China reports third-quarter GDP; European Union leaders hold two-day summit.

S&P 500 Earnings Week AheadReuters
Key Earnings Reports Next WeekBespoke

Wall Street Week Ahead: Investors turn wary as earnings picture dimsReuters

(video) Europe Week Ahead: EU summit countdown stokes tension Reuters

(video) Asia Week Ahead: Brace for weak China GDP dataReuters

(video) US Week Ahead: Get ready for an earnings deluge! Reuters

Global Week Ahead: EU Heads of State still mostly talkingNordea (pdf)
This week’s key event will be the EU Summit Thursday and Friday although it may not necessarily provide the news about Greece and Spain that the financial markets are waiting for. We believe markets are expecting little or no positive news from the Summit and that risks are skewed towards positive surprises, if any. Our view on the most important key figures is broadly neutral with a slight positive bias on Chinese GDP and the minutes from BoE.

G10 Weekly: Severe headwinds facing the Swedish economyNordea
In this week’s edition of G10 weekly we elaborate on the severe headwinds facing the Swedish economy. We also address the process of global deleverage, which appears to be far from over.

Perspectives Oct 2012: A new monetary eraPictet

Nordea Risk Perception PublicationNordea (pdf)
Sideways trading across financial asset classes as markets continue to acknowledge 1) European politicians becoming more vigorous and 2) central banks showing their ammo * The tendency with seeping vols is clearly reflected in Nordea Risk Perception Index * Movements however still muted and correlations are high between asset classes * Going forward, vols can easily loose further ground on the back of ECB and continued weak economic data that keeps markets in tight trading ranges * With only the past year in mind, risk sentiment can quickly shift and timing may be apt for entering tail risk hedges at current historic cheap levels

Weekly Preview: Times they are-a changingBNY Mellon

Weekly Focus: Room for easing in ChinaDanske Bank (pdf)
A stream of data from China will probably show that the slowdown continued in September and Q3 as a whole, that inflation is still falling and that there is therefore still space to ease economic policy. The Spanish saga will roll on in a week featuring both a meeting of the European Council and local elections in Spain. US data, on the other hand, will probably show higher consumer spending and
inflation in September and signs of further growth in October. Norges Bank’s regional network will be an important pointer for Norwegian interest rates and news is due from the Swedish labour market.

Research Euro: Hard data beats soft data - which is right?Danske Bank (pdf)
There is a big divergence between hard and soft data in the euro area at the moment. Although not clear cut, it does suggest that soft data – such as euro PMI – may be too downbeat and could surprise on the upside in coming months. 

Stock Market Troubles The Short Side of Long
When I look at the current condition of US stocks, it definitely reminds me of previous cyclical bull market tops just as the business cycle expansion was coming to an end. Be it overbought prices, narrowing breadth participation, tightening credit spreads, extremely prolonged complacent volatility,  overly bullish sentiment readings without a bear in sight or the fact that the Long Bond refuses to sell off - it all links to the economic fundamentals deteriorating rather rapidly.

Weighing the Week Ahead: Will Q3 Earnings Disappoint? A Dash of Insight 

FX Positioning and Technical OutlookMarc to Market

The Weekly T Report: – TF Market Advisors

Weekly Credit UpdateDanske Bank (pdf)
Spreads drifting wider after Spanish downgrade. News stories about an easing of regulatory requirements for banks

EMEA Weekly, Week 42Danske Bank (pdf)
The economic slump in EMEA continues - the numbers show that the Polish Central Bank needs to cut.

Emerging: Week Aheadbeyondbrics / FT

World: The Week AheadFT

Agenda: bank union to dominate EU summiteuobserver

Economic Calendar –
Monthly Economic Calendar –
Economic Calendar – BB
EU calendar –


TV: Bloomberg, CNBC, BBC,
Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
Europe Crisis Tracker – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank

Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter or Facebook