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Monday, October 22

22nd Oct - US Open: Bottom-fishing

Markets tried to move up, but failed for now. We might see some sort of bottom formation during the early part of this week, and perhaps then the markets decide whether the important support levels are taken out.

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Roundups & Commentary
Frontrunning – ZH
Overnight Sentiment: Same Confusion, Different Day – ZH
The Lunch Wrap – alphaville / FT
Emerging N.Y. headlines – beyondbrics / FT
Today’s front pages – presseurop
Daily press summary – Open Europe

Morning MarketBeat: Streak Ends; Trouble Looms? – WSJ
Broker Note Briefing – WSJ
Drivers in the Week AheadMarc to Market
The T Report: Falling Knives, Dead CATs & Strikeless PutsTF Market Advisors
Market risks are risingKiron Sarkar / The Big Picture

US session ahead
Pre-market Commentary – Marketwatch
Pre-Market Trading – CNNMoney
Pre-Market – NASDAQ
US Equity Preview – Bloomberg
Earnings & Events – The Street
MarketCurrents – Seeking Alpha

Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices

Europe’s Indian summer to yield to a harsh winter of volatilitySaxo Bank
Steen Jakobsen: The EU Summit in June was hailed as a game changer and the big winner was the Spanish president Rajoy. Last week's EU Summit was a different story, as the announced banking union remains merely a plan to have a plan because Germany and Club North have decided that 'conditionality' is an integral part of a future compromise.

Spanish waiting gameMacroScope / Reuters
For this week, top billing probably goes to Draghi entering the lion’s den when he visits the Bundestag to address German concerns about potentially open-ended bond-buying. The Bundesbank remains fundamentally opposed although Merkel is much more sanguine. On the macro front, we get flash PMIs for the euro zone, Germany and France as well as the German Ifo on the same day.

Updating the Maastricht Treaty may be a better option for resolving the eurozone crisis than political union and closer integration.europp / LSE
Wide ranging proposals for political union and closer co-operation between EU member states have been put forward as a solution to the eurozone crisis. Heribert Dieter argues that this preoccupation with centralised forms of decision-making on economic issues is misguided and may bring with it several unanticipated problems. A better strategy would be to update the current framework under the Maastricht Treaty, particularly by creating a concrete mechanism through which states can leave the single currency.

Digging into the German Constitutional Court's ruling on the European Stability Mechanismqfinance
It has become something of a sport for leading German academics and others who are opposed to Germany handing over largess - as they see it

Go for pick-up via maturity extensions in Finnish bondsNordea
With short rates virtually at zero, the search for pick-up is definitely on. In this market, Finnish bonds offer excellent opportunities, offering safety coupled with pick-up over German bonds without making big sacrifices in terms of credit quality. (or straight to full pdf)

Euro area housing markets: A temperature gaugeDanske Bank (pdf)
The euro area housing market spans  large differences, as shown in Danske Bank’s Euro Area Housing Market Index below. Indeed, with regard to housing markets, the euro area looks like independent economies rather than a single market.

Norwegian Government Debt HandbookNordea (pdf)
This handbook gives an overview of the market for Norwegian government debt. We offer details on the structure of the market including instruments, marketplace, auctions, issuance, outstanding volume and  ownership.

Parliament is starting to bare its teeth on ECBeuobserver

Research Euroland: Fact Book FranceDanske Bank (pdf)

FOMC previewDanske Bank (pdf)
Too early to announce a formal rule

Bearish tripwiresHumble Student
Until I see a broader retreat in the major averages, reduction in risk appetite, the public getting bullish, and relative underperformance of cyclical stocks, I am still inclined to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt.

Equity Review: Technology stock drop a sign of things to come?Saxo Bank
Earnings continue this week led by Apple, Facebook and a mix of others. This could be a very volatile couple of weeks for stocks if the earnings disappointments in technology are symptomatic of a wider earnings slowdown.

S&P500 Q3 earnings: A struggle to meet revenue expectationsSaxo Bank
Revenue is investors' focal point * Development does not look good so far * Positive EPS surprises based on cost cutting do not impress investors * Revenue surprise but EPS miss gets a stock hammered.

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